Qatar's Emir not to attend GCC summit in Saudi Arabia

Agencies
December 9, 2018

Riyadh, Dec 9: Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani will not be attending the upcoming Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit. A delegation headed by Qatar's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sultan bin Saad Al Muraikhi will represent the country at the summit.

According to Al Jazeera, the GCC summit which is going to be held in Riyadh on Sunday comes amid an ongoing blockade on Qatar imposed by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt, four members of GCC out of seven, after accusing Qatar of supporting 'terrorism' in June 2017.

However, Qatar has denied the alleged charges and claimed that the boycott is affecting the country's sovereignty.

Bahrain's Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa has criticised Sheikh Tamim's decision of not attending the summit. "Qatar's Emir should have accepted the fair demands [of the boycotting states] and attended the summit," AL Jazeera cited Al Khalifa as saying on Twitter.

Saudi Arabia King Salman had himself extended an invitation to Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to attend the GCC summit. The announcement had come on December 5 following Qatar's withdrawal from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) next year.

The GCC is a political and economic alliance of seven countries including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt. The group aims at fostering socio-economic, security, and cultural cooperation among its member nations. The agenda of the GCC summit has not been made public.

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News Network
February 28,2020

Feb 28: The best economic tonic for the coronavirus shock is to contain its spread and worry about stimulus later, said Raghuram Rajan, former head of the Reserve Bank of India.

There’s little central banks can do, and while more government spending would help, the priority should be on convincing companies and households that the virus is under control, he said.

“People want to have a sense that there is a limit to the spread of this virus perhaps because of containment measures or because there is hope that some kind of viral solution can be found,” Rajan told Bloomberg Television’s Haidi Stroud Watts and Shery Ahn.

“At this point I would say the best thing that governments can do is to really fight the epidemic rather than worry about stimulus measures that comes later,” said Rajan, who is currently a professor at the Chicago Booth School of Business.

The spread of coronavirus is pushing the world economy toward its worst performance since the financial crisis more than a decade ago.

Bank of America Corp. economists warned clients Thursday that they now expect 2.8% global growth this year, the weakest since 2009.

“We have moved from extreme confidence in markets to extreme panic, all in the space of one week,” said Rajan, who previously was chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

The virus outbreak will force companies to rethink supply chains and overseas production facilities, he said.

“I think we will see a lot of rethinking on this, coming on the back of the trade disruption, now we have this,” Rajan said. “Globalization in production is going to be hit quite badly.”

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Agencies
May 27,2020

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

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Agencies
August 6,2020

Ahmedabad, Aug 6: In a major incident, a fire broke out in a Covid-designated hospital in Ahmedabad killing eight coronavirus patients. The mishap occurred in the wee hours of Thursday.

All the victims were in the ICU ward, where the fire is said to have started. Officials said that they all died on the spot while 41 other patients were shifted to other hospitals following a rescue operation. One paramedic staff of the hospital who tried to douse the fire sustained burn injuries.  

Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel, who is also the health minister, said that primary information has revealed that fire was caused by the short circuit in the ICU ward where eight patients were under treatment. 

He said that 41 other patients were shifted to Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel hospital. The incident happened at Shrey Hospital in Navrangpura which is one of the Covid-19 designated hospitals. Over 300 patients have recovered at the hospital in the last two months.

Among the victims were five men and three women. They have been identified as Arif Mansuri, Narendra Shah, Manu Rami, Leelvati Shah, Navneet Shah, Jyoti Sindhi, Manu Rami and Ayesha Tirmizi  

Following the incident, Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted, "Saddened by the tragic hospital fire in Ahmedabad. Condolences to the bereaved families. May the injured recover soon. Spoke to CM @vijayrupanibjp Ji and Mayor
@ibijalpatel Ji regarding the situation. Administration is providing all possible assistance to the affected."

Soon after the tweet, Chief Minister Vijay Rupani ordered a probe into the matter to be conducted by Additional Chief Secretary (ACS), Home, Sangeeta Singh and ACS (Urban Development) Mukesh Puri. 

They have been asked to submit a report in three days. Meanwhile, the hospital building has been sealed for further investigation. 

The chief minister has ordered a report within three days.

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