RBI maintains status quo; cuts growth forecast to 6.7% in FY18

Agencies
October 4, 2017

Mumbai, Oct 4: The Reserve Bank today kept interest rate unchanged as was widely expected in view of upward trend in inflation even as it cut the growth forecast to 6.7 per cent for the current fiscal.

Consequently, the repo rate, at which it lends to banks, will stand at 6 per cent.

The reverse repo, at which RBI borrows from banks will continue to be at 5.75 per cent, it said at the fourth bi-monthly policy review.

In its last review in August it had slashed the benchmark lending rate by 0.25 percentage points to 6 per cent, the lowest in 6 years.

"The decision of the MPC is consistent with a neutral stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2 per cent, while supporting growth," RBI said in its fourth policy review of 2017-18.

The six-member monetary policy committee voted 5:1 for the decision, with only Ravindra Dholakia voting for a 0.25 per cent reduction in rates.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said that after a record low in June, inflation is trending up and estimated the headline number to touch 4.6 per cent by the March quarter.

"The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) decided to keep the policy stance neutral and monitor incoming data closely. The MPC remains committed to keeping headline inflation close to 4 per cent on a durable basis," it said.

On growth, it cut its 2017-18 forecast by gross value added (GVA) basis to 6.7 per cent from 7.3 per cent earlier.

"The loss of momentum in Q1 of 2017-18 and the first advance estimates of kharif foodgrains production are early setbacks that impart a downside to the outlook. The implementation of the GST so far also appears to have had an adverse impact, rendering prospects for the manufacturing sector uncertain in the short-term," RBI said.

The MPC said structural reforms introduced in the recent period will likely be growth augmenting over the medium-to long-term by improving the business environment, enhancing transparency and increasing formalisation of the economy.

Markets were expecting the Monetary Policy Committee to vote for a status quo on the rates at the policy announcement. They also felt that with inflation rising, the RBI is at the end of its rate cutting cycle and may cut it once at best during the remainder of the fiscal.

The review comes amid a heightened fears of a slowdown in growth due to various factors like the demonetisation exercise and the introduction of the indirect taxation reform GST and a shrill call for fiscal boosters from a varied section of economists.

The GDP expansion slowed down for the sixth straight quarter to 5.7 per cent which is a three year low under the new series of computation for the June quarter. However, data released yesterday said the core sector growth came at a 5- month high of 4.9 per cent for August, up from 2.9 per cent for July.

The government has been working on a plan to push up growth, but has not announced any move yet. It cut the excise duty on fuels by Rs 2 in order to minimise the impact of increasing global fuel prices on domestic consumers, a move which heightens the risk of a fiscal slippage.

Breaching the fiscal deficit is also seen as stoking inflation, the Reserve Banks primary objective. The RBI is mandated to keep the headline inflation, which accelerated to 3.36 per cent for August, in the 4-6 per cent band.

Some analysts have been saying inflation has been off the lows and will be pushing up in the second half of the fiscal.

The central bank said it is imperative to reinvigorate investment activity which, in turn, would revive the demand for bank credit by industry as existing capacities get utilised and the requirements of new capacity open up to be financed.

"Recapitalising public sector banks adequately will ensure that credit flows to the productive sectors are not impeded and growth impulses not restrained," it said.

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News Network
May 21,2020

Bengaluru, May 21: The COVID-19-induced lockdown saw a spurt in crybercrimes in India with Kerala recording the highest number during the period, according to an analysis of IT security solutions provider K7 Computing.

The report analyses various cyberattacks within India during the pandemic and reveals that threat actors targeted the States with COVID-19-themed attacks aimed at exploiting user trust.

The sudden surge in the frequency of attacks witnessed from February 2020 to mid-April 2020 indicates that scamsters across the world were exploiting the widespread panic around coronavirus at both the individual and corporate level, the company said in a statement.

These attacks aimed to compromise computers and mobile devices to gain access to users confidential data, banking details and cryptocurrency accounts.

The key threats seen during this period ranged from phishing attacks to rogue apps disguised as COVID-19 information apps that targeted users sensitive data.

Phishing attacks were noticed more in Tier-II and Tier-III cities while the metros fared better.

Smaller cities saw over 250 attacks being blocked per 10,000 users.

Users from Ghaziabad and Lucknow seem to have faced almost six and four times the number of attacks, respectively, as Bengaluru users.

In Kerala, regions like Kottayam, Kannur, Kollam, and Kochi saw the highest hits with 462, 374, 236, and 147 attacks respectively, while the state as a whole saw around 2,000 attacks during the period, the highest thus far in the country.

This was followed by Punjab with 207 attacks and Tamil Nadu at 184 attacks, the statement said.

A majority of the recorded attacks were phishing attacks with sophisticated campaigns that could easily snare even the most educated users, it said.

These attacks were aimed at heightening users fears and creating a sense of urgency to take action.

The report noted phishing attacks where scamsters posed as representatives of the United States Department of the Treasury, the World Health Organisation, and the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

Users were encouraged to visit links that would automatically download malware on the host computer such as the Agent Tesla keylogger or Lokibot information-stealing malware, infamous banking Trojans such as Trickbot or Zeus Sphinx, and even disastrous ransomware.

Other attacks included infected COVID-19 Android apps like CoronaSafetyMask that scam users with promises of masks for an upfront payment; the spyware app Project Spy; and seemingly genuine apps that are infected with dangerous malware like banking Trojans such as Ginp, Anubis and Cerberus, it was stated.

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News Network
May 24,2020

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

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Agencies
July 30,2020

Ahead of the grand foundation stone-laying ceremony of the Ram Temple on August 5, Ayodhya priest and 16 police personnel, involved in the mega event on August 5, have tested positive for COVID-19. Priest Pradeep Das is one of the four priests who regularly perform puja at the Ram Temple site in Ayodhya.

Das has been placed under home quarantine and contact tracing is underway, reported.

Meanwhile, Uttar Pradesh police and Sashastra Seema Bal have been put on high alert in the districts bordering Nepal ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Ayodhya on August 5.

PM Modi likely to launch postal stamps on Ram Temple, Ramayana during Ayodhya visit: Report
Counterfeit products create Rs 1-lakh-crore hole in economy, incidents up 24% in 2019: Report
On July 29, Uttar Pradesh reported a record single-day spike of 3,570 COVID-19 cases, taking the infection tally to more than 77,000, while 33 fresh fatalities pushed the death toll to 1,530.

"There are 29,997 active COVID-19 cases in the state and 45,807 patients have been discharged after treatment," Additional Chief Secretary, Medical and Health, Amit Mohan Prasad told reporters. "The death toll due to the disease has reached 1,530," he said.

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