Sanjay Jha Removed As Congress Spokesperson after Critical Article

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

More than 50 million people in India do not have access to effective handwashing, putting them at a greater risk of acquiring and transmitting the novel coronavirus, according to a study.

Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the US found that without access to soap and clean water, over 2 billion people in low- and middle-income nations -- a quarter of the world's population -- have a greater likelihood of transmitting the coronavirus than those in wealthy countries.

According to the study, published in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives, more than 50 per cent of the people in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania lacked access to effective handwashing.

"Handwashing is one of the key measures to prevent COVID transmission, yet it is distressing that access is unavailable in many countries that also have limited health care capacity," said Michael Brauer, a professor at IHME.

The study found that in 46 countries, more than half of people lacked access to soap and clean water.

In India, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Indonesia, more than 50 million persons in each country were estimated to be without handwashing access, according to the study.

"Temporary fixes, such as hand sanitizer or water trucks, are just that -- temporary fixes," Brauer said.

"But implementing long-term solutions is needed to protect against COVID and the more than 700,000 deaths each year due to poor handwashing access," Brauer said.

He noted that even with 25 per cent of the world's population lacking access to effective handwashing facilities, there have been "substantial improvements in many countries" between 1990 and 2019.

Those countries include Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Nepal, and Tanzania, which have improved their nations' sanitation, the researchers said.

The study does not estimate access to handwashing facilities in non-household settings such as schools, workplaces, health care facilities, and other public locations such as markets.

Earlier this month, the World Health Organization predicted 190,000 people in Africa could die of COVID-19 in the first year of the pandemic, and that upward of 44 million of the continent's 1.3 billion people could be infected with the coronavirus, the researchers said. 

Patna, July 1: A wedding ceremony in rural Patna a fortnight ago where the groom was running high fever, two days before he died and his body cremated without being tested for COVID 19, appears to have set off the biggest infection chain in Bihar so far, health department officials said on Tuesday.

More than 111 people have tested positive in Paliganj sub-division of Patna district, about 55 km from the state capital, in the last few days, out of over 350 who have been tested upon contact tracing, they said. Fifteen of his relatives who attended the wedding tested positive for the contagion and apparently infected others.

The officials, who requested anonymity, said the groom was a software engineer based in Gurugram and had returned home for his marriage in the last week of May. A few days after the ''tilak'' ceremony, he started showing symptoms of the disease.

On June 15, the date of wedding, he was running high fever and wanted the ceremony to be deferred, but relented upon the insistence of family members who made him swallow paracetamol tablets and go through the rituals.
On June 17, his condition deteriorated significantly and family members made a dash to AIIMS, Patna, but he died on the way.

The body was cremated in a huff, without the authorities being informed. But somebody telephoned the district magistrate and narrated the whole episode. All close relatives of the deceased, who attended the ceremony, were tested on June 19. Of them 15 tested positive, the officials said.

As a measure to contain the spread of the disease, a special camp was set up at the village where the marriage took place on June 24-26 during which samples of 364 people were collected. Of them, 86 tested positive, the officials added.

The sudden explosion of the dreaded coronavirus has triggered panic in the area. Although most who tested positive were asymptomatic, they have been admitted to isolation centres in Bihta and Phulwarisharif.

Block Development Officer Chiranjeev Pandey said Meetha Kuan, Khagari Mohalla and parts of Paliganj Bazaar have been sealed for thorough sanitisation.

Patna district happens to be the worst-affected in Bihar with 699 confirmed cases till date and five casualties, according to figures provided by the administration. The number of active cases is 372.

On Monday, when the state witnessed its biggest single day spike with 394 cases, Patna district accounted for more than 20 per cent of these. About eighty cases were reported from Paliganj alone.