Saudi banks more profitable than most GCC peers: Report

March 16, 2017

Jeddah, Mar 16: Moody’s Investors Service has revised its outlook for the Saudi banking system to stable from negative.

Saudi banks are more profitable than most of their Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) peers, with an average ratio of net income-to-tangible assets of 1.9 percent as of 2016, on a par with Qatari banks, said a Moody’s report issued on Wednesday.

saudibank

The stable outlook reflects high risk-absorption buffers and easing funding pressures, as Saudi banks’ credit profiles are expected to remain broadly stable over the next 12 to 18 months, the report said.

“Despite low oil prices, which we expect to fluctuate between $40 and $60 a barrel over the next 18 months, and cuts in oil production, the Saudi economy will gradually recover, supported by government spending,” said Olivier Panis, a vice president at Moody’s.

He added that as a result Saudi banks’ liquidity and funding conditions would improve.

“Although profitability and loan performance will continue to soften, Saudi banks will maintain robust capital and loss-absorption buffers compared to regional and international peers over the outlook horizon,” the analyst said.

According to Moody’s, the operating environment for Saudi banks will recover. While the rating agency expects real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to contract by 0.2 percent in 2017, increased government spending and projects to diversify economic output will support a gradual recovery of the non-oil economy, which will grow by 2 percent in 2017 versus 0.2 percent in 2016.

Consequently, Moody’s expects credit growth to remain low at 3 percent in 2017, but it is likely to gradually pick up from 2018.

Analysts expect non-performing loans (NPLs) to increase to 2.5 percent of the gross loans over the outlook horizon, from a low level of around 1.4 percent as of September 2016.

Although banks will also remain vulnerable to high single-party exposures and opacity in the corporate sector, they will maintain the highest level of loan-loss provisioning coverage in the region, the report said.

According to Moody’s, Saudi banks will maintain a solid operating performance, although subdued loan growth, rising provisioning charges and lower fee and commission income might weigh on profits.

The impact will be partly mitigated by stable margins, low operating costs and easing pressure on funding costs. Despite Moody’s expectation of reduced profitability, subdued loan growth will support capital adequacy, which will strengthen from already strong levels.

Moody’s said that access to funding will improve owing to liquidity injections from international sovereign debt issuances, the clearing of large volumes of overdue payments to contractors by the government in the fourth quarter of 2016 and modest credit growth.

However, deposit growth will remain low until economic activity picks up more materially in 2018.

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News Network
March 11,2020

Mar 11: Energy giant Saudi Aramco on Wednesday said it plans to raise its crude production capacity by one million barrels per day to 13 million bpd as a price war with Russia intensifies.

"Saudi Aramco announces that it received a directive from the ministry of energy to increase its maximum sustainable capacity from 12 million bpd to 13 million bpd," the company said in a statement to the Saudi Stock Exchange.

The decision comes a day after the world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, decided to hike production by at least 2.5 million bpd to a record 12.3 million from April.

The Saudi moves come after the collapse of an oil production reduction agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers, including Russia.

The deal proposed by Saudi Arabia called for additional output cuts of 1.5 million bpd to cope with the severe economic impact of the coronavirus which has sharply reduced world demand for crude.

Boosting production capacity normally takes a long time and requires billions of dollars of investment.

Several years ago, the kingdom had shelved plans to boost its crude production capacity beyond 12 million bpd after demand for OPEC oil declined in the face of stiff competition from North American shale oil and other sources.

Russia on Tuesday said it was open to renewing cooperation with the OPEC cartel even as its kingpin Saudi Arabia escalated a price war with Moscow by announcing it would flood markets with new supplies.

The oil price war broke out after OPEC and a group of non-member countries dominated by Russia -- the world's second largest producer -- on Friday failed to agree on production cuts.

Saudi Arabia responded by announcing unilateral price cuts. This prompted the oil price to plummet and fuelled huge falls on stock markets around the world on Monday.

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News Network
May 11,2020

May 11: Saudi Arabia will triple its value-added tax rate and suspend a cost of living allowance for state workers, it said on Monday, seeking to shield finances hit by low oil prices and a slump in demand for its lifeline export worsened by the new coronavirus.

Historic oil output cuts agreed by Riyadh and other major producers have given only limited support to prices after they sank on oversupply caused by a war for petroleum market share between the kingdom and its fellow oil titan Russia.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is also being hit hard by measures to fight the new coronavirus, which are likely to curb the pace and scale of economic reforms launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

"The cost of living allowance will be suspended as of June 1, and the value added tax will be increased to 15% from 5% as of July 1," Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said in a statement reported by the state news agency. "These measures are painful but necessary to maintain financial and economic stability over the medium to long term...and to overcome the unprecedented coronavirus crisis with the least damage possible."

The austerity measures come after the kingdom posted a $9 billion budget deficit in the first quarter.

The minister said non-oil revenues were affected by the suspension and decline in economic activity, while spending had risen due to unplanned strains on the healthcare sector and the initiatives taken to support the economy.

"All these challenges have cut state revenues, pressured public finances to a level that is hard to deal with going forward without affecting the overall economy in the medium to long term, which requires more spending cuts and measures to support non-oil revenues stability," he added.

The government has cancelled and put on hold some operating and capital expenditures for some government agencies, and cut allocations for some reform initiatives and projects worth a total 100 billion riyals ($26.6 billion), the statement said.

Central bank foreign reserves fell in March at their fastest rate in at least 20 years and to their lowest since 2011, while oil revenues in the first three months of the year fell 24% from a year earlier to $34 billion, pulling total revenues down 22%.

"The reforms are positive from a fiscal side as greater adjustment is essential. However, the tripling of VAT is unlikely to help that much in 2020 revenue wise with the expected fall in consumption," said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.

She said she kept unchanged her deficit forecast of 16.3% of GDP for this year, which already factors in a greater than previously announced spending cut.

About 1.5 million Saudis are employed in the government sector, according to official figures released in December.

In 2018, Saudi Arabia's King Salman ordered a monthly payment of 1,000 riyals ($267) to every state employee to compensate them for the rising living costs after the government hiked domestic gas prices and introduced value-added tax.

DIFFICULT TIMES

A committee has been formed to study all financial benefits paid to public sector employees and contractors, and will submit recommendations within 30 days, the statement said.

In late 2015, when oil prices fell from record highs, the kingdom slashed lavish bonuses, overtime payments and other benefits once considered routine perks in the public sector.

In a country without elections and with political legitimacy resting partly on distribution of oil revenue, the ability of citizens to adapt to such reforms is crucial for stability.

"Tripling the VAT will test the limits of the balance between revenues and consumption as the economy dives into a deep recession. The move will impact consumption and could also lower the expected revenues," said John Sfakianakis, a Gulf expert at the University of Cambridge.

"These are pro-austerity and pro-revenue moves rather than pro-growth ones," he said.

Hasnain Malik, head of equity strategy at Tellimer, said the VAT rise could bring about $24-$26.5 billion in additional non-oil fiscal revenue. The rise would hit consumer spending further but was a needed step towards fiscal sustainability, he said.

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Agencies
May 7,2020

A patient in hospital with Covid-19 has given birth to a healthy baby boy in Dubai.

The 25-year-old Indian was admitted to Al Zahra Hospital after testing positive on May 2.

Although the baby was not due to arrive until May 19, the woman went into labour three days later and delivered a healthy boy weighing 3.8kg.

The parents are yet to name the child, who has also been tested for the virus.

“When we first received the Covid-19 positive diagnosis, we were afraid for the health of both my wife and the baby,” said the boy’s father, who did not want to give his name.

“Thankfully with the help of the doctors and nurses at Al Zahra Hospital, my son was born with no complications and my wife remains in stable condition.

“We couldn’t be more grateful.”

Despite arriving two weeks early, both mother and child are doing well but will only be allowed to leave the hospital to return to their home in Dubai after they return three negative tests on the trot.

“The contractions started very suddenly and it all happened very quickly,” said Al Zahra Hospital nursing director Maysoon Yousef.

“The delivery took about 10 to 15 minutes which is something we do not see very often.

“There were no complications and both the mother and baby are in good condition.”

Strict measures are in place to ensure hygiene for those inside the hospital, as well as visitors.

The new mum and her son are in the same room as the baby needs to be nursed.

According to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, a US national public health institute, there is no evidence that suggests the virus can be transmitted through breastfeeding.

New mothers infected with the virus should wear a mask, wash their hands before and after touching the baby.

“We operate by the latest Covid-19 international and local guidelines when it comes to the management of our maternity patients and otherwise,” said Dr Ghassan Lutfi, head of obstetrics and gynaecology at the hospital.

“We take strict measures to guarantee that there is no risk of cross contamination and that all our patients are in safe hands.”

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