Saudi Crown Prince wins hearts in Pakistan

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

Jun 23: US President Donald Trump has issued a proclamation to suspend issuing of H-1B visas, which is popular among Indian IT professionals, along with other foreign work visas for the rest of the year.

Trump said the step was essential to help millions of Americans who have lost their jobs due to the current economic crisis.

Issuing the proclamation ahead of the November presidential elections, Trump has ignored the mounting opposition to the order by various business organisations, lawmakers and human rights bodies.

The proclamation that comes into effect on June 24, is expected to impact a large number of Indian IT professionals and several American and Indian companies who were issued H-1B visas by the US government for the fiscal year 2021 beginning October 1.

They would now have to wait at least till the end of the current year before approaching the US diplomatic missions to get stamping. It would also impact a large number of Indian IT professionals who are seeking renewal of their H-1B visas.

“In the administration of our Nation's immigration system, we must remain mindful of the impact of foreign workers on the United States labour market, particularly in the current extraordinary environment of high domestic unemployment and depressed demand for labour,” said the proclamation issued by Trump.

In his proclamation, Trump said that the overall unemployment rate in the United States nearly quadrupled between February and May of 2020 -- producing some of the most extreme unemployment rates ever recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

While the May rate of 13.3 percent reflects a marked decline from April, millions of Americans remain out of work.

The proclamation also extends till the end of the year his previous executive order that had banned issuing of new green cards of lawful permanent residency.

Green card holders, once admitted pursuant to immigrant visas, are granted "open-market" employment authorisation documents, allowing them immediate eligibility to compete for almost any job, in any sector of the economy, he said.

“American workers compete against foreign nationals for jobs in every sector of our economy, including against millions of aliens who enter the United States to perform temporary work. Temporary workers are often accompanied by their spouses and children, many of whom also compete against American workers,” Trump said.

“Under ordinary circumstances, properly administered temporary worker programmes can provide benefits to the economy. But under the extraordinary circumstances of the economic contraction resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak, certain non-immigrant visa programmes authorising such employment pose an unusual threat to the employment of American workers,” he said.

For example, Trump said, between February and April of 2020, more than 17 million United States jobs were lost in industries in which employers are seeking to fill worker positions tied to H-2B nonimmigrant visas.

“During this same period, more than 20 million United States workers lost their jobs in key industries where employers are currently requesting H-1B and L workers to fill positions,” he said.

“Also, the May unemployment rate for young Americans, who compete with certain J non-immigrant visa applicants, has been particularly high -- 29.9 percent for 16-19-year-olds, and 23.2 percent for the 20-24-year-old group,” he said.

“The entry of additional workers through the H-1B, H-2B, J, and L non-immigrant visa programmes, therefore, presents a significant threat to employment opportunities for Americans affected by the extraordinary economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 outbreak,” Trump said.

Trump observed that excess labour supply is particularly harmful to workers at the margin between employment and unemployment -- those who are typically "last in" during an economic expansion and "first out" during an economic contraction.

In recent years, these workers have been disproportionately represented by historically disadvantaged groups, including African Americans and other minorities, those without a college degree, and Americans with disabilities, he said.

The proclamation suspends and limits entry into the US of H-1B, H-2B and L visas and their dependents till December 31, 2020. It also includes certain categories of J visas like an intern, trainee, teacher, camp counselor, or summer work travel programme.

The new rule would apply only to those who are outside the US, do not have a valid non-immigrant visa and an official travel document other than a visa to enter the country.

According to the proclamation, it does not have an impact on lawful permanent residents of the United States and foreign nationals who are spouses or child of an American citizen.

Foreign nationals seeking to enter the US to provide temporary labour or services essential to the food supply chain are also exempted from the latest proclamation.

United Nations, May 21: At least 19 million children in parts of Bangladesh and India are at "imminent risk" from flash flooding and heavy rain as Cyclone Amphan makes landfall and the state of West Bengal is expected to take a direct hit from the powerful storm, the UN's children agency has warned.

The extremely severe cyclonic storm Amphan made a landfall at Digha in West Bengal and Bangladesh on Wednesday, leaving a trail of destruction. At least three persons were killed in India and seven in Bangladesh.

The UNICEF said that at least 19 million children in parts of Bangladesh and India are at “imminent risk from flash flooding, storm surges and heavy rain as Cyclone Amphan makes landfall.”

West Bengal, “home to more than 50 million people, including over 16 million children, is expected to take a direct hit from the powerful storm,” the UN agency said in a statement on Wednesday.

The UNICEF said it is also very concerned that the COVID-19 could deepen the humanitarian consequences of Cyclone Amphan in both the countries. Evacuees who have moved to crowded temporary shelters would be especially vulnerable to the spread of respiratory diseases like COVID-19, as well as other infections.

“We continue to monitor the situation closely,” said UNICEF Regional Director for South Asia Jean Gough.

“The safety of children and their families in the areas that will be impacted is a priority and it is good to see that the authorities have planned their urgent response factoring in the on-going COVID-19 pandemic.”

Across the region, the UNICEF is “working closely with the governments of Bangladesh and India and stands ready to support humanitarian operations to reach children and families affected by Cyclone Amphan.”

Based on the storm’s current trajectory, Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh – now sheltering over 850,000 Rohingya refugees – is likely to experience high winds and heavy rains which may cause damage to homes and shelters in the refugee camps and Bangladeshi communities. This population is already highly vulnerable and cases of COVID-19 have recently been confirmed in the camps and host communities.

The UNICEF said it is working with the Deputy Commissioner’s Office in Cox’s Bazar, the Office of the Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner, and humanitarian partners to help ensure Bangladeshi and Rohingya children and families remain protected.

These efforts include raising awareness among Rohingya and Bangladeshi communities on cyclone preparedness and prepositioning emergency life-saving water, sanitation, hygiene and medical supplies to meet immediate humanitarian needs.

Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said at the daily press briefing that UN teams on the ground continue to work with the Government of Bangladesh to prepare and support those in need in the wake of the cyclone.

“Given the current pandemic, this support includes distributing personal protective equipment, disinfectants and other materials to evacuation shelters. To reduce the person-to-person contact during the delivery of aid, e-cash distributions will be used,” he said adding that the UN along with its partners is mobilising more than 1,700 mobile health teams and preparing for emergency food deliveries.

“The Super Cyclone is taking a westerly trajectory towards India, but nearly 8 million people in Bangladesh remain at risk,” he said adding that the Bangladesh government has evacuated more than 2 million people in high-risk areas.