Saudi reforms start to yield results, outlook positive, says IMF

Beirut, Apr 5: The novel coronavirus has put global trade on hold, placed half of the world population in confinement and has the potential to topple governments and reshape diplomatic relations.

The United Nations has appealed for ceasefires in all the major conflicts rocking the planet, with its chief Antonio Guterres on Friday warning "the worst is yet to come". But it remains unclear what the pandemic's impact will be on the multiple wars roiling the Middle East.

Here is an overview of the impact so far on the conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq:

The COVID-19 outbreak turned into a pandemic just as a ceasefire reached by the two main foreign power brokers in Syria's nine-year-old war -- Russia and Turkey -- was taking effect.

The three million people living in the ceasefire zone, in the country's northwestern region of Idlib, had little hope the deal would hold.

Yet fears the coronavirus could spread like wildfire across the devastated country appear to have given the truce an extended lease of life.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the month of March saw the lowest civilian death toll since the conflict started in 2011, with 103 deaths.

The ability of the multiple administrations in Syria -- the Damascus government, the autonomous Kurdish administration in the northeast and the jihadist-led alliance that runs Idlib -- to manage the coronavirus threat is key to their credibility.

"This epidemic is a way for Damascus to show that the Syrian state is efficient and all territories should be returned under its governance," analyst Fabrice Balanche said.

However the pandemic and the global mobilisation it requires could precipitate the departure of US-led troops from Syria and neighbouring Iraq.

This in turn could create a vacuum in which the Islamic State jihadist group, still reeling from the demise of its "caliphate" a year ago, could seek to step up its attacks.

The Yemeni government and the Huthi rebels initially responded positively to the UN appeal for a ceasefire, as did neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which leads a military coalition in support of the government.

That rare glimmer of hope in the five-year-old conflict was short-lived however and last week Saudi air defences intercepted ballistic missiles over Riyadh and a border city fired by the Iran-backed rebels.

The Saudi-led coalition retaliated by striking Huthi targets in the rebel-held capital Sanaa on Monday.

Talks have repeatedly faltered but the UN envoy Martin Griffiths is holding daily consultations in a bid to clinch a nationwide ceasefire.

More flare-ups in Yemen could compound a humanitarian crisis often described as the worst in the world and invite a coronavirus outbreak of catastrophic proportions.

In a country where the health infrastructure has collapsed, where water is a rare commodity and where 24 million people require humanitarian assistance, the population fears being wiped out if a ceasefire doesn't allow for adequate aid.

"People will end up dying on the streets, bodies will be rotting in the open," said Mohammed Omar, a taxi driver in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida.

Much like Yemen, the main protagonists in the Libyan conflict initially welcomed the UN ceasefire call but swiftly resumed hostilities.

Fierce fighting has rocked the south of the capital Tripoli in recent days, suggesting the risk of a major coronavirus outbreak is not enough to make guns fall silent.

Turkey has recently played a key role in the conflict, throwing its weight behind the UN-recognised Government of National Accord.

Fabrice Balanche predicted that accelerated Western disengagement from Middle East conflicts could limit Turkish support to the GNA.

That could eventually favour forces loyal to eastern-based strongman Khalifa Haftar, who launched an assault on Tripoli one year ago and has the backing of Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Western countries have been hit hardest by the pandemic, which could prompt them to divert both military resources and peace-brokering capacity from foreign conflicts.

A report by the International Crisis Group said European officials had reported that efforts to secure a ceasefire in Libya were no longer receiving high-level attention due to the pandemic.

Iraq is no longer gripped by fully-fledged conflict but it remains vulnerable to an IS resurgence in some regions and its two main foreign backers are at each other's throats.

Iran and the United States are two of the countries most affected by the coronavirus but there has been no sign of any let-up in their battle for influence that has largely played out on Iraqi soil.

With most non-US troops in the coalition now gone and some bases evacuated, American personnel are now regrouped in a handful of locations in Iraq.

Washington has deployed Patriot air defence missiles, prompting fears of a fresh escalation with Tehran, whose proxies it blames for a spate of rocket attacks on bases housing US troops.

Riyadh, Mar 18: Private-sector businesses in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday were ordered to introduce enforced remote working for all employees for 15 days in an attempt to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

Businesses that require staff to be physically present to ensure they continue to operate — including those in vital or sensitive sectors such as electricity, water and communications — must reduce the number of workers in their offices to the bare minimum. This can be no more than 40 percent of the total number of staff.

In such cases precautionary measures set by the Ministry of Health must be followed. At offices, and staff accommodation, with more than 50 workers, an area at the entrance must be provided where temperatures can be taken and symptoms checked.

Employers must also set up a mechanism for workers to report any symptoms, such as high temperature, coughing or shortness of breath, or contact they have had with infected individuals or people who recently returned from other countries without following proper Ministry of Health quarantine procedures.

Inside offices, a safe amount of space between employees must be maintained at all times. In addition, all health clubs and nurseries provided by employers must close.

Pregnant women and new mothers, people suffering from respiratory diseases, those with immune-system problems or chronic conditions, cancer patients and employees above the age of 55 are to be given 14 days compulsory paid leave, which will not be deducted from their annual entitlement.

Businesses that are excluded from the new measures include pharmacies and supermarkets, and their suppliers. Private-sector organizations that provide services to government agencies must contact them before suspending workplace attendance. Any other business that considers it impossible to operate with only 40 percent of staff in the workplace must submit an exemption request to the authority that supervises it.

Paris, Mar 1: Most of the riders and teams taking part in the abandoned UAE Tour, and who had been quarantined in their Abu Dhabi hotels since Thursday after a coronavirus scare, were cleared to leave the country, sources said.

"The pleasure of going home after several days spent at the hotel," tweeted 2018 world champion Alejandro Valverde, one of the top stars of the race along with Chris Froome, the four-time winner of the Tour de France.

"We are doing well and soon we will fly to Spain."

However, there was confusion over how many competitors and officials will be allowed to leave.

All 133 cyclists who were still in contention as well as team members were tested after it was announced by organisers Thursday that two Italian staff members on the race had tested positive for the COVID-19 virus.

Earlier Saturday, the UAE Tour, quoting health officials, said that 167 people had been tested and all were negative.

The Department of Health-Abu Dhabi were "still monitoring the condition of the remaining cases of contacts, whose lab testing findings will be available in the next few hours."

The UAE Tour cancelled its last two stages on Thursday after the coronavirus cases were confirmed.

Danish cyclist Michael Morkov of the Deceuninck-Quick-Step team, who took part in the first four stages, was placed in isolation in his hotel room after arriving in Berlin to take part in the world track championships.

However, on Saturday, he too was cleared to take part.

"The rider present in Berlin is currently in excellent health, with no suspicious clinical signs, and we are also guaranteed that he has not contacted the two members of the management of a team participating in the UAE Tour, originally suspected of coronavirus," governing body UCI said in a statement.