Saudi woman held at Bangkok airport pleads for asylum

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

Thiruvananthapuram, Feb 29: With Saudi Arabia indefinitely suspending visas for visit to Islam's holiest site for the Umrah pilgrimage in the wake of coronavirus outbreak, more than 10,000 people in the state who are awaiting their turn this year for the annual Hajj pilgrimage are a worried lot.

"This year more than 10,000 people in Kerala have been cleared by the Hajj committee," said C Muhammed Faizy, chairman, Kerala State Hajj Committee.

"There is no cause of worry. We hope that during the time of the pilgrimage, the travel restriction by Saudi Arabia will be lifted," he said.

Umrah is a pilgrimage to the holy site that can be undertaken at any time of the year, while the annual Hajj pilgrimage has specific months according to the lunar calendar.

"The move by the Saudi Arabian Government to impose travel restriction was due to the outbreak of coronavirus. It is a preventive step to contain it. In such large gatherings, if one person is affected, it will spread to others. So we fully understand the concerns of the Saudi Government," Muhammed Faizy added.

He said that the Hajj Committee only processes the requests of annual Hajj visit pilgrims and not Umrah.

"This year we expect the Hajj pilgrimage season to be from June to August after Ramzan. But it may vary according to the Ramzan date. We are yet to get any official correspondence from the Saudi Government regarding travel restrictions," he added.

The Saudi Arabian Government suspended visas for tourists from countries affected by the coronavirus, with many having to cancel their Umrah pilgrimage at the last minute.