Saudi woman held at Bangkok airport pleads for asylum

Washington, Feb 18: The upcoming visit of President Donald Trump to India later this month has the potential to usher in a new era of bilateral ties between the two countries, a top American business advocacy group has said.

President Trump will pay a state visit to India on February 24 and 25 at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He would be accompanied by First Lady Melania Trump.

This would be the president's first bilateral visit in the third decade of the 21st century and also the first after his acquittal by the Senate in the impeachment trial.

"I believe President Trump's upcoming visit to India has the potential to usher in a new era of our bilateral ties," Mukesh Aghi, President of the US India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF) said in a statement on Monday.

On the sidelines of the visit, the USISPF, in collaboration with the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and the ORF, has announced to organise a program entitled "US-India Forum: Partners for Growth".

The full-day discussion will focus on the key pillars defining India and the US' strategic, economic, and cultural partnership over the next decade.

"We have an opportunity before us to make real progress on multiple aspects of the relationship— whether it is upholding peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region; building upon an already strong energy partnership; developing co-production and co-development opportunities in the defense space; or strengthening bilateral trade," Aghi said.

"We look forward to an extremely successful visit and some concrete outcomes from the visit," he said.

The day-long programme on February 25 in New Delhi, will bring together over 500 senior business executives, members of the US-India think tank community and leading figures of the Indian diaspora to set the agenda for this strategic partnership.

Discussions during the day will touch upon areas, including the Indo-Pacific Strategy and Maritime Security; the US-India Defence Partnership, the US-India Energy Partnership, Elevating US-India Trade and Investment and Role of the Indian Diaspora in US-India Relations.

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Abu Dhabi, Jan 16: The number of people being killed by terrorism activities worldwide has decreased significantly over the recent years, according to the latest Global Terrorism Index.

The 2019 Global Terrorism Index, which was presented at a forum in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday also showed that the UAE improved its ranking in the index by coming down to 130th rank among the 163 countries. The terrorism impact in the UAE is categorised as 'very low'. In the UAE, only two terrorism incidents were reported over the past decade - one in 2010 and another in 2014 - and there were no casualties.

Commenting on the report, Mansour Al Mansouri, director of the UAE National Media Council (NMC) said: "These findings rightly show the UAE as one of the safest countries in the world in terms of terror threat."

The index showed that the total number of deaths from terrorism declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2018, falling by 15.2 per cent to 15,952 deaths. This represents a 53 per cent reduction since its peak in 2014 when 33,555 people were killed in terrorist attacks.

The index published for the seventh year in a row, ranks 163 countries across the globe according to the relative impact of terrorism. This takes into account the number of terrorist incidents, deaths caused by terror and total value of property damage.

The latest results saw three Middle East countries - Iraq, Syria and Yemen - continue in the top 10 positions of the index.

The findings also showed Taleban overtaking Daesh as the deadliest terrorist group in the world, accounting for 38 per cent of all terrorist deaths. This is an increase of 71 per cent. Afghanistan is the country most affected by terrorism in 2018 followed by Iraq, Nigeria, Syria and Pakistan, according to the report. The least impacted nations were Belarus, Guinea-Bissau, Oman, The Gambia and North Korea.

During his presentation of the key findings of the index at the Foreign Correspondent's Club of the UAE (FCC), Serge Stroobants, director of Europe and Mena at the Institute of Economics and Peace, said lesser people were now being killed in terrorism activities.

"There have been long-term trends in global terrorism, with deaths caused by terror down by 52 per cent compared to high point of 2014, which saw Daesh and Boko Haram at their peak," said Stroobants attributing the decrease in the deaths to the increase in security measures and cooperation among nations in the fight against terrorism.

In contrast to this, there has been a 320 per cent increase in far-right terrorist incidents in the West, with political ideology being the driving force behind an increased proportion of terror motivation.

"There has been an increase in far-right terrorism in Western Europe, North America and Oceania for the third consecutive year," said Stroobants.

Terrorism still remains a global security threat, according the index, with 71 countries recording more than one death - the second highest number of countries since 2002.

Stroobants said conflicts remain the main cause of terrorism with 90 per cent of terrorist incidents occurring in places where there are conflicts or insurgencies.

The report said the global economic impact of terrorism was $33 billion in 2018, a substantial decrease of 38 per cent from the previous year.

Boko Haram was responsible for 80 per cent of all female suicide attacks, said the terrorism index.

Global Terrorism Index: Most affected countries

>Afghanistan (7379 deaths)

>Iraq (1,054 deaths)

>Nigeria (2,040 deaths)

>Syria (662 deaths)

>Pakistan (537 deaths)

>Somalia (646 deaths)

>India (350 deaths)

>Yemen (301 deaths)

>The Philippines (297 deaths)

>Democratic Republic of the Congo (410 deaths)