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New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

New Delhi, Mar 19: The total number of reported novel coronavirus cases in India has climbed to 169, with 30 fresh cases reported from various parts of the country on Wednesday.

The total cases in India include 25 foreign nationals and the three persons who died in Delhi, Karnataka and Maharashtra.

As coronavirus cases continue to rise in India, over 5,700 people, who had come in contact with positive cases, continue to be under rigorous surveillance, the government has said.

Maharashtra has 43 cases, including 3 foreigners, while Kerala has recorded 27 cases which include two foreign nationals. A 28-year-old woman from Pune with a travel history to France and the Netherlands tested positive for Covid-19, a senior official said on Wednesday.

A 68-year-old woman has tested positive for coronavirus in Mumbai. She was in close contact with a Covid-19 patient, who was diagnosed yesterday.

In Rajasthan, three more have tested positive for Covid-19. The new cases have come from Jhunjhunu district. Their samples have been sent to SMS Medical college.

In Maharashtra, a 21-year-old man in Pimpri Chinchwad with travel history to the Philippines, Singapore and Colombo has tested positive for coronavirus. One more person in Ratnagiri has tested positive for Covid-19.

Telangana has reported seven more confirmed coronavirus cases. All the seven are Indonesian national.

Delhi has so far reported 10 positive cases which include one foreigner while Uttar Pradesh has recorded 16 cases, including one foreigner. A man from Noida tested positive on Wednesday, taking the total number to four in Noida.

Karnataka reported two fresh cases on Wednesday, taking the number of infections to 13. The number of cases in Ladakh rose to eight and Jammu and Kashmir three. Telangana has reported six cases which include two foreigners.

One more person has tested positive for coronavirus in Kashmir. The person, with foreign travel history, has been put under isolation. He had arrived in J&K on March 16.

There will be restrictions on public transport, assembly of people and some other measures, in #Srinagar from tomorrow.

Rajasthan has also reported four cases including that of two foreigners. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Uttarakhand and Punjab have reported one case each.

Tamil Nadu Health Minister C Vijayabaskar has confined the state's second positive case of coronavirus in the state.

The health minister has stated that the condition of the patient is stable and is in observation.

In Haryana, there are 16 cases, which include fourteen foreigners.

According to the Union ministry's data, 14 people have been discharged so far, including the three patients from Kerala.

Three persons infected with the virus have died so far, the latest casualty being a 64-year-old man from Mumbai with a travel history to Dubai who succumbed on Tuesday.

While a 76-year-old man from Kalaburagi who returned from Saudi Arabia died last Tuesday, a 68-year-old woman in Delhi who had tested positive for coronavirus passed away on Friday night.

The government on Tuesday banned the entry of passengers from Afghanistan, Philippines and Malaysia to India with immediate effect, according to an additional travel advisory.

With coronavirus cases swelling in the country, the government has also banned the entry of passengers from the European Union countries, Turkey and the UK from March 18 till March 31.

Thiruvananthapuram, May 22: Domestic flyers arriving in Kerala must undergo strict home quarantine as per the lockdown guidelines, in view of increasing COVID-19 cases in the state, Health Minister K K Shailaja said on Friday.

"Even if the domestic flight services resume, those coming in must remain under strict home quarantine as per the guidelines.

There is no change in that. Most people will be coming from the major hotspots of the country," she said.

Announcing the resumption of domestic flight services from May 25, the Civil Aviation Ministry had indicated on Thursday that it was not in favour of quarantining passengers on short-haul flights.

However, the Assam government has made it mandatory for all air passengers coming to that state to stay in quarantine for 14 days.

Apart from the health department and the local self government institutions, Shailaja said the people of Kerala must also ensure that every returnee to the state remained under strict home quarantine in order to curb the spread of the disease.

"We need to strictly keep under observation all those who come fromoutside the state and make sure that they do not come into contact with others including their family members.

They should be effectively remain under room quarantine at their residence," she said.

The state reported 690 cases after 24 more tested positive for coronavirus on Thursday.

As of now over 80,000 people are under observation across the state.

On the death of a 73-year-old woman, who came from Mumbai, on Thursday, the minister said, "Khadijakuttycame from Mumbai along with three others. She alighted at Chavakkad. Her son who picked her up from there took her to the govt hospital as she was tired. She was given good care."

"However, as her condition worsened, had taken a decision to sent her to the medicalcollege. Her swab test was taken and she was tested positive, but she passed away," Shailaja said.

The minister sounded a word of caution that there would be an increase in cases in the coming days as the influx of people coming from abroad and other states would continue.

"We cannot prevent anyone from coming. They are our brothers and were suffering there. We need to save those who come here and also those who are here," the Minister said.

Shailaja said the southern state had successfully managed the first two phases of the viral outbreak in January and March.

"There were three deaths. But we managed to save the rest of the people including a 93-year-old man," she said.

The Minister further said the situation in the state changed after flight services resumed and the border roads were re-opened after May 7.

"Our fatality rate is low and recovery rate is high.

After May 7, when the flight restrictions were lifted and people from other states started coming in, we reported 188 cases.

At least 90 per cent of the positive cases came from outside and the rest are their contacts," she noted.