New Delhi, Jun 26: With looming uncertainty and no likelihood of an early economic recovery in sight, the bull run in gold prices is here to stay. Analysts expect domestic futures to touch ₹ 52,000 per 10 grams in the next few months, till Diwali.
Experts also predict that with the current trend, gold may reach historic levels around ₹ 65,000 per 10 grams in two years time.
Futures of the yellow metal have touched new highs in India off late. On Wednesday, the August contract of gold futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) touched an all-time high of Rs 48,589 per 10 grams.
It has, however corrected since and is currently trading at ₹ 48,057 on the MCX, higher by ₹ 116 or 0.24 per cent from its previous close.
Market experts are of the view that both domestic and international gold prices are yet not done breaching records and will touch new highs in days to come.
The resurgence in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection across the globe has added to the uncertainty and fears.
Speaking to media persons, Anuj Gupta, DVP for Commodities and Currencies Research at Angel Broking, noted: "In short term we are expecting it to reach ₹ 48,800-49,000 and for long term, we are expecting ₹ 51,000-Rs 52,000 till Diwali."
On the prices in the international market, he said that it may reach around $1,790 per ounce in the near term from the current levels of $1,762 and the long term, it is likely to be around $1,820-1,850 per ounce.
Gupta noted that with International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest downward revision of economic outlook, both global and of India, and the rising number of cases and high demand by gold exchange traded funds (ETF) have led to this record breaking rise in gold prices.
Covid-19 battered India's economy is projected to contract by 4.5 per cent this fiscal, according to the IMF and the global output is projected to decline by 4.9 per cent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the IMF's April forecast.
Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Financial Services, said that gold's safe haven appeal will remain on the higher side as there is little hope of a quick global economic recovery amid rising virus cases across the world.
"Increased geopolitical instability and an under-performing dollar also lift the metal's sentiments," he added.
According to Prathamesh Mallya, AVP Research, Non-Agro Commodities & Currencies at Angel Broking, said that with the global output to contract and the economies in a deeper recession than most anticipate, gold as an asset class is a safe bet for investors across the globe.
"Although, the physical demand has declined drastically due to the restrictions and lockdowns, the activity of global central banks and their net purchases of gold signal that uncertainty will continue for most of 2020," he said.
He was also of the view that in the international market price of the metal may move towards $1,850 per ounce and in the domestic market it is likely to move higher towards Rs 50,000 per 10 grams.
"The investment demand as seen in the net additions of ETF holdings also signals that gold will shine for a much longer time even if the pandemic is under control. Till then, keep buying gold, if not in physical form, but in digital form," Mallya added.
Industry insiders like Aditya Pethe, Director, WHP Jewellers said: "I basically feel that the current trend for the gold is bullish and for the coming next 2 years, it is likely to move upwards. No one can predict the exact price as currently the trend is on rise but it might change after 6 months. In general for the coming 6 months to one year, the gold prices are likely to cross $2,000 which comes to roughly Rs 55,000. For a temporary moment it may reduce, basically fluctuate as well but overall trend of gold is going to be bullish."
On his part, Ishu Datwani, Founder, Anmol Jewellers said: "Yes - it's very likely that the gold price could easily go up to Rs 60,000-Rs 65,000 in the next two years. There is also a possibility of it going up even more."
"A lot of banks have been buying gold and there is also a possibility that the Indian rupee will depreciate against the dollar. This and geopolitical reasons will cause bullishness in gold."
Comments
After all these sufferings,it pains a section of us,common peole still support demonetisation !
What was supposed to be a surgical strike against tax cheats and counterfeit currency became an attack on a large informal economy that ran almost entirely on cash. The hardships caused by a shortage of new legal tender, and the rush to deposit old 500 and 1,000 rupee ($15.40) notes in bank accounts before the Dec. 31 deadline, took a heavy toll. More than 100 people died in bank and ATM queues, although it's impossible to confirm if the deaths from heart failure or exhaustion were directly a result of demonetization.
I Will donate one rope to hang him.
@Truth Teller - I share your views 100%
Honestly, i am not sure what is there to like about Congress! Besides all the scams running to several thousand crores and losing face in the international scene (thanks to Kalmadi) they have played religion & caste politics for decades for vote bank ruining the country. For the first time after independence perhaps there is some move towards honesty, improving infrastructure, education and cleanliness. Why some continue to hate Modi is just beyond me if you truly love this country. Rahul is bad news for India unless they find someone else who can be like Modi - hardworking & with a vision to change.
Honesty is incompatible with the amassing of a large fortune - Mahatma Gandhi
Modiji is the true and honest man after Gandhi
Demonetization in India was a war against dishonesty and it is a movement against corruption.This exercise has brought an awareness to the people not to make wealth dishonestly.Majority of the people wanted honest system in India and supported the Government's initiative on demonetization.
I am a hardworking sincere person. I earn for a living and to support my family, because of demonetization me and my family suffered without any cause. This man freezes our transactions to a minimum of 2000 and what not. Who was he to do it, By law it is not permissible unless a person is held guilty by law agencies.
Because of one man 100 innocent died standing in queue. How come once company made 160000 times profit during demonetization, Where is the black money, what happened to panama papers. These statistics have to shown after demonetization. Even now they are misleading crores of people with data not important to Aam Admi.
Dinesh Gundu will soon be under police custody
Nobel prize winner praised Modi for demonetisation and digital India and later he confessed he told wrong after knowing that Modi banned old 100&500 notes and implemented 2000 rupees notes..
I can say Modi is the best intelligent person in the world. And he should get business man of the year award.
Because,
1. Modi made huge benefit to Paytm (paytm ceo didnt do this much profit for his company)
2. Modi made profit to the private agency which made/maintaning aadhar things.
3. Modi made profit to Jio
4. Modi made profit to big companies by implementing demonetisation and GST (same time it affected badly on small scale retailer shop)
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