Singhal released; Togadia shifted to Etah jail

New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.

"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.

Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.

Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.

Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.

He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.

The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.

The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.

India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31. 

Mumbai, Feb 2: Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Sunday slammed the BJP-led central government on the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and said that the new law only serves the objectives of the Sangh Parivar of turning India into a Hindu Rashtra.

He said that in order to achieve their objectives, the "communal elements" are trying to divide India's people through the same strategy as employed by the British colonisers in the past.

Lauding people in Mumbai for their protests against CAA, the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the National Population Register (NPR), the Kerala chief minister also outlined three reasons for his government's decision to reject the Citizenship Amendment Act.

"Over the last several weeks, Mumbai citizens made clear their unyielding opposition to efforts made by Hindutva elements to tear apart the secular fabric of our society. I express solidarity with struggles being made across the city in defence of secularism and the Indian Constitution," Vijayan said at an event here.

The chief minister was addressing the 'Mumbai Collective' here on the topic of 'National struggle against communalism'.

"The government of Kerala is acting as per the Constitution. Like Kerala, other states are also looking at CAA as against the fundamentals of the Constitution. It (CAA) violates basic human rights and is divisive and deeply discriminatory," CM Vijayan said, adding that the new citizenship law only furthers the Sangh Parivar's objective of creating a Hindu Rashtra.

He said the CAA needs to be rejected for three basic reasons.

"First, it is against the letter and spirit of our Constitution. Secondly, it is highly discriminatory and violative of human rights. Thirdly, it seeks to impose philosophy of Sangh Parivar with its mission of Hindu Rashtra," the chief minister said.

Vijayan also participated in the human chain organised by Left Democratic Front (LDF) against CAA and NRC and said that "the law is a threat to the secularism of this country".

The newly enacted law is facing stiff opposition across the country with several non-NDA states including Kerala, West Bengal, Rajasthan and Punjab refusing to implement it.

Rajasthan, Kerala and Punjab have passed resolutions against the recently amended law in their respective state Assemblies.

The CAA grants citizenship to Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Parsis, Buddhists and Christians fleeing religious persecution from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh and who came to India on or before December 31, 2014.