Slowing Indian economy spells tough times ahead for the rupee

Agencies
November 7, 2019

Bengaluru, Nov 7: A slowing domestic economy will prevent India’s rupee from recouping this year’s losses against the dollar in 2020, with optimism around an easing in the US-China trade dispute not enough to give it a further boost, a Reuters poll showed.

After falling nearly 9 per cent in 2018, the Indian currency has shed another 4 per cent this year to touch a 2019 trough of 72.40 per dollar on Sept 3. It has since popped up over 2 per cent, along with other emerging market currencies, on hopes of a possible trade deal between the world’s two largest economies.

But nothing has been agreed yet, let alone a meeting scheduled.

A barrage of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India this year - five reductions in succession for a total of 135 basis points off the repo rate, now at 5.15 per cent - has done nothing concrete so far to revive a slowing Indian economy.

Neither have several government fiscal stimulus measures introduced this year, which have become a negative for the rupee’s outlook given it will be difficult for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to meet its fiscal deficit targets.

“We expect the rupee to weaken as risks of sluggish growth and fiscal slippage intensify,” said Rini Sen, India economist at ANZ.

“Stable portfolio flows led by equities and global cues like trade negotiations, on top of rate cuts, have led to bouts of optimism. However, we think the currency market is under-pricing downside risks to domestic growth.”

The November 1-6 Reuters poll of over 40 strategists predicted the rupee to weaken about 1.3 per cent to 71.90 against the greenback in 12 months from around 71.00 on Wednesday.

The RBI, the most aggressive major central bank in the world this year for easing, is expected to cut the repo rate at its sixth meeting in a row in December, a Reuters poll showed last month, which could put further pressure on the currency.

“Unlike the previous cuts, additional cuts could erode the allure of the rupee as a higher yielder, while (the) growth prospect remains a concern,” said Saktiandi Supaat, head of foreign exchange research at Maybank based in Singapore.

Indian economic growth has steadily slowed to a six-year low of 5.0 per cent in the April-June quarter from an 8.1 per cent peak in the January-March quarter of 2018 and recent business surveys indicate it will slow further.

While the year-ahead consensus in the latest poll was slightly stronger than 72.50 per dollar predicted last month, it reflects the currency’s gain over the past month.

However, nearly two-thirds of 24 common contributors in the October and November Reuters polls either downgraded or kept their year-ahead forecasts unchanged.

Currency speculators have cut short bets on the rupee to the lowest since mid-August, a separate Reuters poll showed.

The rupee’s outlook was also driven by renewed interest among foreign portfolio investors for Indian assets. They bought 160.69 billion rupees of Indian securities in October, the highest in six months, according to Foreign Portfolio Investors’ data.

“If whatever measures taken by the government so far do not result in improving the onshore growth scenario, then there is risk that whatever portfolio flows which have come so far might reverse...and could result in rupee weakness,” said Rohit Garg, emerging market FX strategist at BofAML based in Singapore.

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News Network
February 14,2020

Bhuj, Feb 14: In a horrifying incident, as many as 68 undergraduate girls were paraded through their college into the restroom and forced to individually remove their undergarments to prove that they were not menstruating. 

This shameful exercise was conducted at Shri Sahjanand Girls’ Institute (SSGI) in Gujarat’s Bhuj under the supervision of principal and other teachers. 

It all began after the hostel rector complained to the principal that some of the inmates had been violating the Hindu religious norms specifically for menstruating females.

According to the sect’s norms, menstruating females are barred from entering the temple and kitchen. They are even forbidden from touching other students. However, the hostel administration reportedly complained to principal Rita Raninga that some girls who were having their periods not just mingled with other hostel inmates, but also entered the kitchen and ventured near the temple on the premises. 

“It was sheer mental torture and we don’t have words to describe it,” a student who underwent the traumatic experience said, adding that there were total 68 girls who were forced to pass through the test.

“The hostel administration levelled this allegation and insulted us on Wednesday. On Thursday, when we were attending lectures, rector Anjaliben called the principal and complained about this. We were forced to leave our classrooms and queue up outside in the passage. The principal abused and insulted us, asking which of us were having our periods. Two of us who were menstruating stepped aside,” said another victim.

“Despite this, we were all taken to the washroom. There, female teachers asked us to individually remove our undergarments so they could check if we were menstruating,” she added.

Another teenage undergraduate said, “We come from farflung villages. The college campus houses a school that runs classes from Class 1to 12. They provide hostel facilities to the school students. The college does not have its own hostel. We live with the school-kids in their hostel.”

She added, “The principal, hostel rector and the trustees harass us regularly over the issue of menstruation. We are punished for having periods. This happens even if we follow their religious rules. They made us remove our undergarments because they thought some of us were lying about not having periods, and mingling with the others against rules. But the humiliation meted out to us on Thursday was the last straw. When we protested against this, trustee Pravin Pindoria told us that we could take legal action if we wanted but we would have to first leave the hostel. He also forced the students to sign a letter saying nothing happened in college. But enough is enough.”

Kutch University authorities have, meanwhile, swung into action and a five-member team including in-charge vice-chancellor, Darshna Dholakia, and two other senior female professors visited the college on Thursday. “We will speak to the students and the college authority and later initiate appropriate action based on the findings,” Dholakia said.

Run by followers of Swaminarayan Mandir, the college was set up in 2012 but moved into a new building on the premises of Shree Swaminarayan Kanya Mandir in 2014. The college which offers BCom, BA and BSc courses has about 1,500 students of which 68, who come from remote villages, stay in the hostel on campus. The college is known for its pro-Hindutva stance.

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News Network
March 12,2020

Mangaluru, Mar 12: Deputy Commissioner Sindhu B Rupesh on Thursday said that the test reports of the 35-year-old passenger from Dubai have shown no signs of either Coronavirus (COVID-19) or H1N1.

In statement issued here Ms Rupesh said that the passenger has now been discharged from the Bantwal hospital. He has been asked to stay at home quarantined for the next 14 days.

The passenger, who had been diagnosed with fever after he arrived at the airport from Dubai on March 8, had left the Government Wenlock Hospital in the early hours of March 9 refusing to undergo tests.

Later, he was traced and admitted to the hospital in Bantwal and his throat swab samples had been sent to Viral Research Diagnostic Laboratory (VRDL) in Hassan Institute of Medical Sciences.

Meanwhile, throat swab samples of six patients were also found negative for COVID-19.

As many asf 49 people were under quarantine in the district of which five have completed the 28-day cycle.

All passengers arriving by international flights and those in contact with them should voluntarily report to the district health team and undergo self-quarantine for 14 days. If there were symptoms of cough, cold and fever, they should undergo tests for COVID-19. If the reports were positive for COVID-19, then they have to stay in the isolation ward of the Government Wenlock Hospital or in the seven select private hospitals for 28 days.

Screening facility at the airport has been strengthened by posting doctors from seven private medical colleges on rotation basis. These doctors would be in addition to the medical officer at the airport. An ambulance has been placed at the airport exclusively to shift people to the hospitals, she added.

The State government has issued a notification on Wednesday authorising Deputy Commissioners to get the affected admitted by force, if necessary.

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News Network
April 21,2020

Bengaluru, Apr 21: The Karnataka Government may spare its employees from salary cuts this month despite severe resources crunch it faces following steep fall in revenue collection due to the ongoing lockdown to fight the coronavirus, official sources said on Tuesday.

As of now, there is no problem with April salary and we can manage. But if May also turns out to be a wash-out (in terms of revenue collection), then the situation is going to be very tough, a senior Minister said.

Ministers and members of Karnataka Legislature are taking a 30 per cent pay-cut for a year from April 1 this year. Opposition Congress in the state has vehemently opposed any possible move to cut salaries of government employees.

You just cant even imagine, the Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa had told news agency in an interview earlier this month on the economic impact of the lock-down on the state's finances. Yediyurappa had also said that the government is now not in a position to implement Budget proposals, barring important ones, with all kinds of revenue collections having completely stopped following the lockdown.

The government recently said it proposes to regularise unauthorised properties in the state by imposing penalty, and also auction more than 12,000 corner sites belonging to the Bengaluru Development Authority, as part of resource mobilisation drive.

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