Sriprakash Jaiswal apologizes for sexist remarks

May 28: Abdul Kareem was forced out of school and into a life of odd jobs like repairing bicycles before he finally managed to pull his family out of abject poverty transporting goods across Delhi in a mini truck.

The job, and the slim financial security that came with it, was the first stepping stone to a better life.

All that is now gone as India reels under the economic impact of its protracted coronavirus lockdown. Mr Kareem's out of a job and stranded in his village in Uttar Pradesh with his wife and two children. Their minuscule savings from his Rs 9,000 a month job have been exhausted, and the money he saved for books and school uniforms is spent.

"I don't know what the job situation will be in Delhi once we go back," Mr Kareem said. "We can't stay hungry so I will do whatever I find."

At least 49 million people across the world are expected to plunge into "extreme poverty" -- those living on less than $1.90 per day -- as a direct result of the pandemic's economic destruction and India leads that projection, with the World Bank estimating some 12 million of its citizens will be pushed to the very margins this year.

Some 122 million Indians were forced out of jobs last month alone, according to estimates from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private sector think tank. Daily wage workers and those employed by small businesses have taken the worst hit. These include hawkers, roadside vendors, workers employed in the construction industry and many who eke out a living by pushing handcarts and rickshaws.

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came to power in 2014 promising to lift the poorest citizens out of poverty, the fallout from the lockdown brings with it significant political risk. He won an even larger second term majority last year on the strength of his government's popular social programs that directly targeted the poor, such as the provision of cooking gas cylinders, power and public housing. The breadth and depth of this renewed economic pain will only increase the pressure on his government as it works to steer the country's economy back on track.

"Much of the Indian government's efforts to mitigate poverty over the years could be negated in a matter of just a few months," said Ashwajit Singh, managing director of IPE Global, a development sector consultancy that advises several multinational aid agencies. Noting that he did not expect unemployment rates to improve this year, Singh said: "More people could die from hunger than the virus."

Desperate Times

Mr Singh points to a United Nations University study estimating 104 million Indians could fall below the World Bank-determined poverty line of $3.2 a day for lower-middle-income countries. This will take the proportion of people living in poverty from 60% -- or 812 million currently, to 68% or 920 million -- a situation last seen in the country more than a decade ago, he said.

A World Bank report found the country had been making significant progress and was close to losing its status as the country with the most poor citizens. The impact of PM Modi's lockdown risks reversing those gains.

The World Bank and the CMIE estimates were published in late April and early May respectively. Since then the situation has only become grimmer, with harrowing images of people making desperate attempts to reach their villages, on crowded buses, the flatbeds of trucks and even on foot or on bicycles dominating media coverage.

The Rustandy Center for Social Sector Innovation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business analyzed the unemployment data from the CMIE, collected through surveys covering about 5,800 homes across 27 states in April.

Researchers found rural areas were the hardest hit, and the economic misery was the result of the lockdown, rather than the spread of infections in the hinterland. More than 80% of households had experienced a drop income and many won't survive much longer without aid, they wrote in a report.

The government has promised cheap credit to farmers, direct transfer of money to the poor and eased access to food security programs -- but these help people who have some documentation, which many of the poorest don't. With millions of impoverished people now in transit across the country, the food security situation is dire -- news reports are emerging of people foraging through piles of rotting fruit or eating leaves.

Shattered Economy

The economy was already growing at its slowest pace in over a decade when the virus struck. The lockdown, which came into effect on March 25, has hammered it, stalling business activity and putting a lid on consumption, pushing the economy to what may be its first full-year contraction in more than four decades.

It's dire enough to warrant the country exiting its lockdown, as it has been doing incrementally since May 4, even as its infections are surging. India is now Asia's virus hotspot with infections crossing 151,000 according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

PM Modi, who has come under criticism for the pain inflicted on the poor, has said his government will spend $265 billion or about 10% of its GDP to help Asia's third-largest economy weather the pandemic's fallout. But experts say only a part of it is direct fiscal stimulus, and probably smaller than the total damage done to the economy during the lockdown period.

"What is especially worrying is the government's response," said Reetika Khera, an economics professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi. "The epidemic will magnify existing -- and already high -- inequalities in India."

Still, the economic measures aren't going to kick in for some time and industry will likely struggle to restart because of the flight of labour from industrial hubs.

And as the harsh summer unfolds more pain lies in store in the villages now dealing with returning migrant workers.

"There are no factories or industries here, there are just hills," said Surendra Hadia Damor, who had walked nearly 100 km from Ahmedabad, Gujarat, before a voluntary organisation drove him to his village in the neighboring state of Rajasthan. "We can survive for a month or two and then try and find a job nearby -- we will see what happens."

United Nations, Jul 10: India is a "good example" as solar auctions have seen popularity amidst the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, UN chief Antonio Guterres said on Thursday, underlining that renewable energy is the only energy source expected to grow in 2020 and offers more jobs than the fossil fuel industry.

In his remarks to the International Energy Agency "Clean Energy Transition Summit'', UN Secretary-General Guterres urged the international community to commit to further usage of coal and to end all external financing of coal in the developing world.

"Coal has no place in COVID-19 recovery plans. Nations must commit to net-zero emissions by 2050 and submit more ambitious national climate plans before COP-26 next year," he said.

"The seeds of change are there. Renewable energy is the only energy source expected to grow in 2020. Solar auctions have seen popularity amidst the height of the pandemic. India serves as a good example. Renewables offer three times more jobs than the fossil fuel industry," Mr Guterres said.

Last month, Adani Green Energy said it has bagged the first of its kind manufacturing-linked solar contract worth Rs 45,000 crore from the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) to develop 8 GW electricity generation capacity and 2 GW equipment manufacturing facility in the country.

Mr Guterres said he has asked all countries to consider six climate positive actions as they rescue, rebuild and reset their economies.

"We need to make our societies more resilient. We need green jobs and sustainable growth," he said, adding that bailout support to sectors such as industry, aviation and shipping should be conditioned on alignment with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Countries also need to stop wasting money on fossil fuel subsidies and place a price on carbon, he said, noting that countries need to consider climate risk in their decision making.

"Every financial decision must take account of environmental and social impacts. Overall, we need to work together," he said.

Mumbai, May 31: Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut on Sunday alleged that the event held in Ahmedabad to welcome US President Donald Trump in February was responsible for the spread of coronavirus in Gujarat and later in Mumbai and Delhi, which some of his delegates had visited.

Raut also hit out at the Centre saying that the lockdown was implemented without any planning, but now the responsibility of lifting the curbs was left to the states.

The Sena MP said that despite the opposition BJP's attempts to pull down the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, there was no threat to it as its survival is the 'majboori' (compulsion) of all the three ruling allies- Sena, NCP and Congress.

"It can't be denied that the spread of coronavirus in Gujarat was because of the massive public gathering held to welcome US President Donald Trump. Some of the delegates, who accompanied Trump, also visited Mumbai, Delhi, which led to the spread of the virus," Raut said in his weekly column in Shiv Sena mouthpiece 'Saamana'.

On February 24, Trump along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi had taken part in a road-show in Ahmedabad, which was attended by thousands of people. After the road- show, the two leaders had addressed a gathering of over one lakh people at Motera cricket stadium, run by Gujarat Cricket Association (GCA).

Gujarat had reported its first coronavirus cases on March 20, when samples of a man from Rajkot and a woman from Surat tested positive for the disease.

Raut said that any move to pull down the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government and impose President's rule in the state citing its failure to curb the coronavirus pandemic would be suicidal.

"The state had witnessed how President's rule was imposed and lifted as per will six months ago," he said.

"If the handling of coronavirus cases is the basis of imposing President's rule, then it should be done in at least 17 states, including the BJP-ruled ones. Even the central government has failed to curb the pandemic as it had no planning to fight the virus," he said.

"The lockdown was imposed without any planning and now without any plan, the responsibility of lifting it has been left to the states. This chaos will further worsen the crisis," he said.

The Sena MP said that Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has made an excellent analysis of how the lockdown has failed.

"It is shocking that people can indulge in politics by demanding President's rule in Maharashtra for the rise in the coronavirus cases," he said.

BJP MP Narayan Rane had recently met Maharashtra Governor B S Koshyari and demanded imposition of President's rule in view of the the Shiv Sena-led state government's "failure" in tackling the coronavirus pandemic. However, the BJP had later said that it was not trying to destabilise the government.

Speaking about the stability of the government, Raut said that the survival of the MVA government was the 'majboori' (compulsion) of each of the three alliance partners.

"Even if there are internal conflicts among the ruling partners, there is no threat to the government as the allies know that its survival is the 'majboori' of each one of them," Raut said.

He said that the Devendra Fadnavis-led government, in which the BJP and Shiv Sena shared power, saw internal conflicts between the ruling allies, but it completed its full five-year term.

Slamming Fadnavis, who is now the Leader of Opposition in the Legislative Assembly, for predicting downfall of the MVA government saying it will fall on its own due to its internal bickering.

"If the Fadnavis government, which witnessed deep internal conflicts between BJP and Sena, didn't fall, how can this one collapse? The Fadnavis government survived despite the (Sena) ministers carrying their resignation letters in their pockets," Raut wrote.

Fadnavis, in an online media interaction held earlier recently, said he had no intention to destabilise the MVA government and said it would collapse on its own.

"What Fadnavis means is that all attempts (of the BJP) to create discord among the three allies and break the MLAs has failed. Now the opposition hopes that something would happen among the allies and the government would be fall apart," he said.

Raut said NCP president Sharad Pawar is the prominent leader, who laid the foundation stone of the "Thackeray sarkar", and only he can predict the future of the government.

"He continues to say the government is stable and even the Congress is not going anywhere. MVA legislators are not up for sale in horse-trading. Hence, if the opposition says that the government will fall, it is wrong," he said.