New Delhi, Nov 29: Former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government Arvind Subramanian on Thursday called the demonetisation move a massive, draconian, monetary shock and 'in one fell swoop, 86 per cent of the currency in circulation was withdrawn'.
Mr Subramanian, in his book Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy, said the real GDP growth was clearly affected by demonetisation.
He said the growth had been slowing even before, but after demonetisation the slide accelerated. In the six quarters before demonetization, growth averaged 8 per cent and in the seven quarters after, it averaged about 6.8 per cent (with a four-quarter window, the relevant numbers are 8.1 per cent before and 6.2 per cent after).
“I don’t think anyone disputes that demonetization slowed growth. Rather, the debate has been about the size of the effect, whether it was 2 percentage points, or much less. After all, many other factors affected growth in this period, especially higher real interest rates, GST implementation and rising oil prices,” he added.
He added that prior to demonetisation, cash and GDP move closely together. Then, currency collapses and recovers but through all of this, the economy seems to have been chugging along almost unmindful of the currency in circulation.
He said at the time (early 2017), the election in Uttar Pradesh -- India’s most populous state and the world’s eighth-largest ‘country-that-isn’t’— was widely seen as a verdict on demonetization, arguably the salient policy action of the government, personally and forcefully articulated by the prime minister.
The economist said the note ban was one of the unlikeliest economic experiments in modern Indian history.
Mr Subramanian was appointed the Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to government in October 2014. On 20 June 2018, Mr Subramanian stepped down before the scheduled end of his tenure owing to his family commitments.
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