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New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

New Delhi, Jun 16: With an increase of 10,667 cases and 380 deaths in the past 24 hours, the COVID-19 count in India has reached 3,43,091 on Tuesday, according to the Union Health and Family Welfare Ministry.

It is noteworthy that today's spike in cases is lower than the 11,502 registered in the country yesterday and has also stayed below the 11 thousand mark it had been crossing for the past two days in a row.

However, there is an increase in the number of deaths due to the infection from yesterday, with 380 deaths being reported from across the country, the toll due to COVID-19 has now reached 9,900.

The COVID-19 count includes 1,53,178 active cases, while 1,80,013 patients have been cured and discharged or migrated so far.

Maharashtra with 1,10,744 cases continues to be the worst-affected state in the country with 50,567 active cases while 56,049 patients have been cured and discharged in the state so far. The toll due to COVID-19 has crossed the four thousand mark and reached 4,128 in the state.
It is followed by Tamil Nadu with 46,504 and the national capital with 42,829 confirmed cases.

New Delhi, May 6: The death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 1,694 and the number of cases climbed to 49,391 in the country on Wednesday, registering an increase of 126 deaths and 2,958 cases in the last 24 hours, the Union Health Ministry said.

The number of active COVID-19 cases is 33,514. A total of 13,160 people have recovered and one patient has migrated, it said.

"Thus, around 28.71 per cent patients have recovered so far," a senior health ministry official said.

The total number of cases include 111 foreign nationals.

A total of 111 deaths were reported since Tuesday evening, of which 49 fatalities were reported from Gujarat, 34 from Maharashtra, 12 from Rajasthan, seven from West Bengal, three from Uttar Pradesh, two each from Punjab and Tamil Nadu and one each from Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh, the ministry said.

Of the 1,694 fatalities, Maharashtra tops the tally with 617 fatalities. Gujarat comes second with 368 deaths, followed by Madhya Pradesh at 176, West Bengal at 140, Rajasthan at 89, Delhi at 64, Uttar Pradesh at 56 and Andhra Pradesh at 36.

The death toll reached 33 in Tamil Nadu, 29 in Telengana, while Karnataka has reported 29 fatalities.

Punjab has registered 25 COVID-19 deaths, Jammu and Kashmir eight, Haryana six and Kerala and Bihar four deaths each.

Jharkhand has recorded three COVID-19 fatalities.

Meghalaya, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Odisha, Assam and Uttarakhand have reported one fatality each, according to the ministry data.

According to the health ministry data updated in the morning, the highest number of confirmed cases in the country are from Maharashtra at 15, 525, followed by Gujarat at 6,245, Delhi at 5,104, Tamil Nadu at 4,058, Rajasthan at 3,158, Madhya Pradesh at 3,049 and Uttar Pradesh at 2,880.

The number of COVID-19 cases has gone up to 1,717 in Andhra Pradesh and 1,451 in Punjab.

It has risen to 1,344 in West Bengal, 1,096 in Telengana, 741 in Jammu and Kashmir, 671 in Karnataka, 548 in Haryana and 536 in Bihar.

Kerala has reported 502 coronavirus cases so far, while Odisha has 175 cases. A total of 125 people have been infected with the virus in Jharkhand and 111 in Chandigarh.

Uttarakhand has reported 61 cases, Chhattisgarh 59 cases, Assam 43, Himachal Pradesh 42 and Ladakh 41.

Thirty-three COVID-19 cases have been reported from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Tripura has registered 43 cases, Meghalaya has reported 12 and Puducherry nine, while Goa has seven COVID-19 cases.

Manipur has two cases. Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh and Dadar and Nagar Haveli have reported a case each.

"Our figures are being reconciled with the ICMR," the ministry said on its website.

State-wise distribution is subject to further verification and reconciliation, it said.