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New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

New Delhi, Jun 15: Average temperature of India experienced a rise of 0.7 degree Celsius, along with decline in rainfall, significant increase in frequency of very severe cyclonic storms and droughts in over a decade due to human activities, the Ministry of Earth Sciences in its research report said.

The contentions were made in a report issued by the ministry on the impact of climate change. It will be published by Union Minister Harsh Vardhan on June 19.

According to the report, "Since the middle of the twentieth century, India witnessed rise in temperature; decrease in monsoon; rise in extreme temperature and rainfall, droughts, and sea levels; and increase intensity of severe cyclones.

The report, prepared by researchers of the Centre for Climate Change Research, a cell under The Ministry's Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, further stated that there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have influenced these changes in regional climate.

India's average temperature has risen by around 0.7 degrees Celsius during 1901-2018, it said, adding that the rise is largely on account of GHG-induced warming and partially offset by forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols.

It states that the average temperature over India is projected to rise by 4.4 degrees Celsius, while the intensity of heat waves is likely to increase by 3-4 times by the end of the century.

In the 30-year period between 1986 and 2015, temperatures of the warmest day and the coldest night of the year have risen by about 0.63 degrees Celsius and 0.4 degree Celsius.

According to the report, by the end of the century, the temperatures of the warmest day and the coldest night are projected to rise by approximately 4.7 degrees Celsius and 5.5 degrees Celsius, respectively.

Alarmingly, sea surface temperature of the tropical Indian Ocean has also risen by one degrees Celsius on average during 1951-2015.

"The frequency of very severe cyclonic storms during the post-monsoon season has increased significantly (+1 event per decade) during the last two decades (2000-2018)," it added.

This came in the backdrop of Cyclone 'Amphan' and 'Nisarga' which made landfalls on May 20 and June 3 and killed several people, flattened villages, and destroyed farms.

"This is the first-ever climate change assessment report for India. This report will be very useful for policy makers, researchers, social scientists, economists, and students," said M. Rajeevan, secretary, the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

Besides this, the report also highlighted various other unnerving data on climate change in the country. Both the frequency and extent of droughts have increased significantly during 1951-2016.

The overall decrease of seasonal "summer monsoon rainfall" during the last 6-7 decades has led to an increased propensity for droughts over India.

"In particular, areas over central India, southwest coast, southern peninsula and north-eastern India have experienced more than 2 droughts per decade, on average, during this period. The area affected by drought has also increased by 1.3 per cent per decade over the same period."

The Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) also experienced a temperature rise of about 1.3 degree Celsius during 1951-2014.

Several areas of the Himalayas have experienced a declining trend in snowfall and also retreat of glaciers in recent decades. By the end of the twenty-first century, its annual mean surface temperature is projected to increase by about 5.2 degree Celsius.

The summer monsoon precipitation from June to September over India has also declined by around 6 per cent from 1951 to 2015, with notable decreases over the Indo-Gangetic Plains and the Western Ghats, the report further states.

Jan 17: India's "high power" communication satellite GSAT-30 was successfully launched in the early hours of January 17, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) said.

The satellite, aimed at providing high-quality television, telecommunications and broadcasting services, was launched onboard Ariane 5 rocket from French Guiana.

Blasting off from the Ariane Launch Complex in Kourou, a French territory located in northeastern coast of South America at 2.35 am IST, European space consortium Arianespace's Ariane 5 vehicle injected GSAT-30 into the orbit in a flawless flight lasting about 38 minutes.

Arianespace CEO Stéphane Israël tweeted about the successful launch of GSAT-30.

ISRO's U R Rao Satellite Centre Director P Kunhikrishnan, who was present in Kourou, congratulated the ISRO community and Arianespace team on the successful launch.

Calling it an "excellent start" to 2020 for ISRO with the launch, he said, "The mission team at the master control facility have already acquired the satellite and they will immediately complete the post launch operations...."

The 3,357-kg satellite, which was deployed from the lower passenger position of Ariane-5 launch vehicle (VA 251) into to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), is configured on ISRO's enhanced I-3K Bus structure to provide communication services from Geostationary orbit in C and Ku bands.

The satellite derives its heritage from ISRO's earlier INSAT/GSAT satellite series, and is equipped with 12 C and 12 Ku band transponders.

GSAT-30 is to serve as replacement to the "aging" INSAT-4A spacecraft services with enhanced coverage, ISRO has said, adding the satellite provides Indian mainland and islands coverage in Ku-band and extended coverage in C-band covering Gulf countries, a large number of Asian countries and Australia.

With a mission life of 15 years, GSAT-30 is an operational communication satellite for DTH, television uplink and VSAT services.

The Bengaluru-headquartered ISRO has said the communication payload of GSAT-30 is specifically designed and optimised to maximise the number of transponders on the spacecraft bus.

According to the space agency, the spacecraft would be extensively used for supporting VSAT (Very Small Aperture Terminal) network, television uplinking and teleport services, digital satellite news gathering (DSNG), DTH television services, cellular backhaul connectivity and many such applications.

One Ku-band beacon downlink signal is transmitted for ground-tracking purpose, it added.

For its initial flight of 2020, Arianespace on its website said, it would orbit EUTELSAT KONNECT, a telecommunication satellite for the operator Eutelsat, along with GSAT-30, using an Ariane 5 launch vehicle from the Guiana Space Centre.

EUTELSAT KONNECT – which was produced by Thales Alenia Space for Eutelsat – was riding in the upper position of Ariane 5's payload arrangement, and was released first in the flight sequence at 27 minutes following liftoff.

Since the launch of India's APPLE experimental satellite on Ariane Flight L03 in 1981, Arianespace has orbited 24 satellites, including GSAT-30, for the Indian space agency.