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New Delhi, Apr 24: The trajectory of COVID-19 cases could have plateaued and might even fall for some weeks after the lockdown is lifted but India is likely to see a second wave in late July or August with a surge in the number of cases during the monsoon, say scientists.

The timing of the peak will depend on how India is able to control physical distancing and on the level of infection spreads after restrictions are relaxed, they said.

It looks apparent that the trajectory of daily new cases has reached a plateau and eventually it will take a downward fall, maybe for some weeks or even months, Samit Bhattacharya, associate professor at the Department of Mathematics, Shiv Nadar University, said.

Still, we may get a surge of new cases of the same coronavirus and this will be considered a second wave, Bhattacharya explained.

The second epidemic may come back in late July or August in the monsoon, although the peak timing will depend on how we control social distancing during that time, he said.

Rajesh Sundaresan, professor at Bengaluru's Indian Institute of Science (IISc), agreed.

“Once we return to normal activity levels, there is a chance that infection may begin to rise again. China is seeing this to some extent post easing of some restrictions on travel,” Sundaresan, corresponding author of a working paper by researchers at IISc and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) in Mumbai, said.

On March 25, when the number of coronavirus cases was 618 with 13 deaths, the government announced a nationwide lockdown that was later extended to May 3.

On Friday, the death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 718 and the number of cases to 23,077, according to the Union Health Ministry.

In good news, officials said this week that the doubling rate of cases has slowed down in the period, going from 3.4 days before lockdown to 7.5 days, with 18 states doing better than the national average. The recovery rate has also almost doubled in the last 10 days.

"Looking at the new cases in the past few days, it seems the growth of new daily infection is much slower than earlier. This apparently indicates that we might have reached at the plateau of the growth curve, Bhattacharya said.

He noted that recent studies in China and Europe observed that the infection might relapse in those people who have already recovered from earlier phases.

So, there is no evidence that the earlier infection may help acquire immunity against the second infection. And in that way, the entire population may be vulnerable to the second wave to some extent, said the scientist.

In their study unveiled this week, IISc and TIFR researchers analysed the impact of strategies such as case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing and various post-lockdown restrictions on COVID-19 that might remain in force for some time.

The study modelled on Bengaluru and Mumbai suggests the infection is likely to have a second wave and the public health threat will remain, unless steps are taken to aggressively trace, localise, isolate the cases, and prevent influx of new infections.

The new levels and the peaking times for healthcare demand depend on the levels of infection spreads in each city at the time of relaxation of restrictions, they said.

The lockdown is currently upon us. It has given us valuable time. Let us test, trace, quarantine, isolate, practice better hygiene, search for a vaccine, etc. We should do these anyway, and these are being done. When and how to lift the lockdown is going to be a difficult decision to make, said Sundaresan.

It's clear that it's going to be phased. What our team is focusing on is to come up with tools to help the decision makers assess the public health impact of various choices, he said.

According to the experts, infectious diseases spread via contact between infectious and susceptible people. In the absence of any control measures, an outbreak will grow as long as the average number of people infected by each infectious person is more than one.

Once enough people are immune there will be fewer people susceptible to the infection and the outbreak will die.

However, when an outbreak is brought under control by social distancing and other interventions, it is possible only a small proportion of the population will have been infected and gained immunity, they said.

This means enough susceptible people may remain to fuel a second wave if controls are relaxed and infection is reintroduced.

Until the vaccine comes on the market, we have to remain alert Once sporadic cases occur here and there in the country, we immediately need to implement quarantine or social distancing locally for the people in that region, and also need to perform tests to identify positive cases irrespective of showing symptoms, Bhattacharya explained.

Note that these monsoon months are also flu season in many places of India. So, we should not ignore the early signs of the flu symptoms. Irrespective of symptoms, we need to increase tests in the hotspots to identify people and contain the surge, he said.

Sundaresan added that the timeline for a second wave will depend on a lot of circumstances which may change as the time passes.

Significant testing may have been underway, there may be behavioural changes with people becoming more careful about their hygiene, wearing masks may become more common, etc. All these responses may help restrict the second wave, he said.

A study published in The Lancet journal earlier this month modelled the potential adverse consequences of premature relaxation of interventions, and found it might lead to a second wave of infections.

The finding is critical to governments globally, because it warns against premature relaxation of strict interventions, the researchers said.

While interventions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are in place, countries will need to work toward returning to normalcy; thus, knowledge of the effect of each intervention is urgently required, they said in the study.

According to a recent analysis by the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, the best strategy to ease the critical care burden and loss of life from COVID-19 might be on-again, off-again social distancing.

In the absence of such interventions, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022, which would present a substantial social and economic burden, the researchers wrote.p

May 6: The government on Tuesday said that the Food Corporation of India, the nodal agency for procurement and distribution of foodgrains, has sufficient stocks in its godowns, even after meeting the requirement of additional wheat and rice provided free of cost during the lockdown period.

Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan has given detailed information about the various steps taken by the government and the total stocks of food grains and pulses available with the government and sent to the states till now, an official statement said.

"FCI currently has 276.61 lakh tonnes rice and 353.49 lakh tonnes wheat. Hence a total of 630.10 lakh tonnes food grain stock is available," it said.

As against this, about 60 lakh tonnes of food grains is required for a month under the NFSA (National Food Security Act) and other welfare schemes.

Paswan said FCI stocks are comfortable even after fulfilling extra commitments during the lockdown.

Under the 'Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana', the Centre is providing 5 kg of free food grains per month to 80 crore ration card holders. This free of cost wheat and rice will be provided for three months. Besides, 1 kg of pulses will also be supplied per family.

This is over and above the normal quota of 5 kg of food grains provided per month per person to about 80 crore people under the food law.

The minister informed that since the lockdown, about 69.52 lakh tonnes of food grains have been transported through 2,483 rail rakes.

Apart from rail route, transportation was also done through roads and waterways. A total of 137.62 lakh tonnes has been transported.

During the lockdown, NGOs and social institutions running relief camps can purchase wheat and rice directly from FCI Depots at Open Market Sales Scheme (OMSS) rate.

The state governments can also purchase food grains directly from FCI. Under the OMSS, the rate of rice is fixed at Rs 22 per kg and wheat at Rs 21 per kg.

Under the 'Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana', for the next 3 months a total of 104.4 lakh tonnes rice and 15.6 lakh tonnes of wheat is required of which 59.50 lakh tonnes rice and 8.14 lakh tonnes wheat have been lifted by various states and UTs.

The Government of India is bearing 100 per cent financial burden of approximately Rs 46,000 crore under the scheme, the statement said.

For pulses, the total requirement for the next three months is 5.82 lakh tonnes.

So far, 2,20,727 tonnes of pulses have been dispatched, while 1,47,165 tonnes of pulses have reached the states/UTs and 47,490 tonnes have been delivered, it said.

Kochi, Feb 9: P Parameswaran, one of the senior-most "pracharaks" of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and former leader of the erstwhile Bharatiya Jana Sangh, died at 91 in the early hours today, Sangh Parivar sources said.

The founder director of the Bharatheeya Vichara Kendram died at 12.10 am while undergoing Ayurvedic treatment at Ottappalam in Kerala's Palakkad district, according to sources.

P Parameswaran, who had worked with leaders like Deendayal Upadhyaya, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and LK Advani during the Jana Sangh days, was honoured with Padma Vibhushan, the country's second highest civilian award in 2018 and Padma Shri in 2004.

Fondly called as Parameswar ji by Sangh Parivar and Bharatiya Janata Party leaders, he was a prolific writer, poet, researcher and a widely-respected RSS ideologue. He was the Bharatiya Jana Sangh's secretary (1967-1971) and vice0president (1971-1977), as well as the director of the Deendayal Research Institute (1977-1982) in New Delhi.

Born in 1927 in Muhamma, Alappuzha district, he joined the RSS during his student days.

His body will be brought to the RSS headquarters in Kochi this morning for people to pay their last respects. The cremation will be held in Muhamma in the evening, sources said.

During the days of Emergency between 1975-77, he courted arrest as part of the all India Satyagraha against it and was jailed for 16 months.

Bharatheeya Vichara Kendram was established by P Parameswaran in 1982 "to promote nationalist thoughts among Keralites".