Tirupur 'honor' killing: 6, including father-in-law, sentenced to death

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

Ahmedabad, Jan 12: Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Saturday unveiled over 5.5 lakh postcards written by Ahmedabad residents to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, thanking him for the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.

The postcards were stacked on the dais as Shah addressed a gathering of BJP workers who formed letters `C A A’ in front of him.

The state BJP claimed that the party’s “largest awareness campaign” in support of the CAA had found a place in Limca Book of Records and World Record of India.

“It is not just words but a letter of thanks written from the heart. Our public outreach programme is a reply to the lies being spread against the CAA,” Shah said addressing BJP workers from his former Assembly constituency Naranpura.

The BJP had promised to enact the CAA in its manifesto, he said, asking why the Congress did not oppose it then.

Targeting Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, Shah said, “Congress has a government in Rajasthan. The Congress party in that state had promised that Hindus and Sikhs from Pakistan would be given citizenship.

“Why do you oppose it when we fulfill the promise made by you?” the Union home minister asked.

“In 2006 and 2009, Ashok Gehlot wrote a letter for the same. We covered Hindus, Sikhs, Parsis, Christians, all of them under the Act, you had only mentioned Hindus and Sikhs,” Shah claimed.

Saying that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, by bringing in the CAA, granted “human rights to lakhs of people”, he asked why opposition was against it.

He challenged “Rahul Baba” (Congress leader Rahul Gandhi), Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal to show if any provision of the CAA took away the citizenship of Indian Muslims.

“There is no such provision. Lakhs and crores of people have come to India from Pakistan, Bangladesh to save their religion, their self-respect, to save themselves. Where else will they go?” he asked.

“From the first prime minister of the country Jawaharlal Nehru to the first home minister, first president of the country, and Mahatma Gandhi himself had said that whoever comes to India from Pakistan will be granted citizenship. Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists and Jains coming from Pakistan have nowhere else to go,” he said.

New Delhi, Jan 9: The Union government has removed the central security cover of Tamil Nadu Deputy Chief Minister O Paneerselvam and DMK leader M K Stalin, officials said on Thursday.

They said while Paneerselvam had a smaller 'Y+' cover of central paramilitary commandos, Stalin had a larger 'Z+' protection.

The security cover of these two politicians has been taken off from the central security list after a threat assessment review was made by central security agencies and approved by the Union home ministry, they said.

Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) commandos were protecting these two leaders of Tamil Nadu.

However, they said, the central security cover will be formally taken off after the state police takes over their security task, they added.