Triple talaq bill to be tabled in Rajya Sabha today

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Bhopal, Jun 20: A senior BJP MLA in Madhya Pradesh tested COVID-19 positive hours after he cast his vote for the Rajya Sabha polls in the state and attended party meetings, an official said on Saturday. The legislator's wife has also tested positive for the infection, he said.

Voting for three Rajya Sabha seats in the state took place on Friday.

The couple's test reports came on Friday night and the news of the MLA's infection triggered panic among other MLAs with some of them reaching hospitals to get themselves tested.

"The MLA and his wife were found infected with COVID- 19 in the tests conducted by a private laboratory. We are examining their condition and making a decision whether they need to be hospitalised or home quarantined," a health department official told.

He said that the MLA's contact tracing has been initiated.

"Further tests are also being conducted," he said.

He is the second legislator in Madhya Pradesh, who was tested coronavirus positive.

Earlier, a Congress MLA was found infected. He had voted for the Rajya Sabha polls on Friday after reaching the state assembly complex wearing a PPE suit.

Talking to , a member of the BJP MLA's family said that the medical team was called on Friday afternoon for the COVID-19 test after the legislator's wife complained of uneasiness.

"The MLA and his wife gave the samples to the medical team for the COVID-19 tests on Friday afternoon and they were told at night that both of them have tested positive for the infection," he said.

After the news of BJP MLA testing positive spread, a senior BJP MLA from Mandsaur, Yashpal Singh Sisodiya, reached government-run J P Hospital here along with two other party MLAs.

Talking to reporters, Sisodiya said, "I came here along with two other MLAs from our division- Dilip Makwana (Ratlam Rural) and Devilal Dhakad (Garoth)- after we came to know through media and social media that one of the MLAs from our division has tested positive for COVID-19."

"We don't have any symptoms, but came to test for COVID-19 as a precautionary measure," he said.

Dhakad said that he came for testing as he had dined with the MLA two days back.

Talking to , Madhya Pradesh State Assembly's Principal Secretary A P Singh said that all the precautionary measures were taken during the Rajya Sabha polling.

"All employees were in safety gears during the Rajya Sabha election process. The assembly campus was being sanitised every 15-20 minutes during the polling process...We are now going through the CCTV footage to trace those who had come in his contact," he said.

Congress MLA and former minister P C Sharma said that those who came in contact with the BJP legislator should be traced and quarantined.

"The employees and MLAs who came in contact with him during the voting process should be tested," Sharma said.

New Delhi, Jan 16: The Arvind Kejriwal-led Delhi government on Thursday rejected the mercy plea of Mukesh, one of the convicts in the 2012 Nirbhaya case.

The mercy plea was then forwarded to Lieutenant Governor, who has now sent it to Union Ministry of Home Affairs.

The convicts were sentenced to death for raping a 23-year-old woman in a moving bus in the national capital on the intervening night of December 16-17, 2012.

The victim, who was later given the name Nirbhaya, had succumbed to injuries at a hospital in Singapore where she had been airlifted for medical treatment.