UAE Foreign Minister visits Akshardham temple in New Delhi

May 28: Abdul Kareem was forced out of school and into a life of odd jobs like repairing bicycles before he finally managed to pull his family out of abject poverty transporting goods across Delhi in a mini truck.

The job, and the slim financial security that came with it, was the first stepping stone to a better life.

All that is now gone as India reels under the economic impact of its protracted coronavirus lockdown. Mr Kareem's out of a job and stranded in his village in Uttar Pradesh with his wife and two children. Their minuscule savings from his Rs 9,000 a month job have been exhausted, and the money he saved for books and school uniforms is spent.

"I don't know what the job situation will be in Delhi once we go back," Mr Kareem said. "We can't stay hungry so I will do whatever I find."

At least 49 million people across the world are expected to plunge into "extreme poverty" -- those living on less than $1.90 per day -- as a direct result of the pandemic's economic destruction and India leads that projection, with the World Bank estimating some 12 million of its citizens will be pushed to the very margins this year.

Some 122 million Indians were forced out of jobs last month alone, according to estimates from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private sector think tank. Daily wage workers and those employed by small businesses have taken the worst hit. These include hawkers, roadside vendors, workers employed in the construction industry and many who eke out a living by pushing handcarts and rickshaws.

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came to power in 2014 promising to lift the poorest citizens out of poverty, the fallout from the lockdown brings with it significant political risk. He won an even larger second term majority last year on the strength of his government's popular social programs that directly targeted the poor, such as the provision of cooking gas cylinders, power and public housing. The breadth and depth of this renewed economic pain will only increase the pressure on his government as it works to steer the country's economy back on track.

"Much of the Indian government's efforts to mitigate poverty over the years could be negated in a matter of just a few months," said Ashwajit Singh, managing director of IPE Global, a development sector consultancy that advises several multinational aid agencies. Noting that he did not expect unemployment rates to improve this year, Singh said: "More people could die from hunger than the virus."

Desperate Times

Mr Singh points to a United Nations University study estimating 104 million Indians could fall below the World Bank-determined poverty line of $3.2 a day for lower-middle-income countries. This will take the proportion of people living in poverty from 60% -- or 812 million currently, to 68% or 920 million -- a situation last seen in the country more than a decade ago, he said.

A World Bank report found the country had been making significant progress and was close to losing its status as the country with the most poor citizens. The impact of PM Modi's lockdown risks reversing those gains.

The World Bank and the CMIE estimates were published in late April and early May respectively. Since then the situation has only become grimmer, with harrowing images of people making desperate attempts to reach their villages, on crowded buses, the flatbeds of trucks and even on foot or on bicycles dominating media coverage.

The Rustandy Center for Social Sector Innovation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business analyzed the unemployment data from the CMIE, collected through surveys covering about 5,800 homes across 27 states in April.

Researchers found rural areas were the hardest hit, and the economic misery was the result of the lockdown, rather than the spread of infections in the hinterland. More than 80% of households had experienced a drop income and many won't survive much longer without aid, they wrote in a report.

The government has promised cheap credit to farmers, direct transfer of money to the poor and eased access to food security programs -- but these help people who have some documentation, which many of the poorest don't. With millions of impoverished people now in transit across the country, the food security situation is dire -- news reports are emerging of people foraging through piles of rotting fruit or eating leaves.

Shattered Economy

The economy was already growing at its slowest pace in over a decade when the virus struck. The lockdown, which came into effect on March 25, has hammered it, stalling business activity and putting a lid on consumption, pushing the economy to what may be its first full-year contraction in more than four decades.

It's dire enough to warrant the country exiting its lockdown, as it has been doing incrementally since May 4, even as its infections are surging. India is now Asia's virus hotspot with infections crossing 151,000 according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

PM Modi, who has come under criticism for the pain inflicted on the poor, has said his government will spend $265 billion or about 10% of its GDP to help Asia's third-largest economy weather the pandemic's fallout. But experts say only a part of it is direct fiscal stimulus, and probably smaller than the total damage done to the economy during the lockdown period.

"What is especially worrying is the government's response," said Reetika Khera, an economics professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi. "The epidemic will magnify existing -- and already high -- inequalities in India."

Still, the economic measures aren't going to kick in for some time and industry will likely struggle to restart because of the flight of labour from industrial hubs.

And as the harsh summer unfolds more pain lies in store in the villages now dealing with returning migrant workers.

"There are no factories or industries here, there are just hills," said Surendra Hadia Damor, who had walked nearly 100 km from Ahmedabad, Gujarat, before a voluntary organisation drove him to his village in the neighboring state of Rajasthan. "We can survive for a month or two and then try and find a job nearby -- we will see what happens."

New Delhi, Jun 26: Over 700 employees of Hindu Rao Hospital would stage a protest against North Delhi Municipal Corporation on Friday morning over non-payment of their salaries since April. The staff includes paramedical, nurses, and Class IV employees of the hospital. However, the employees said that only 40 or 50 people would gather to stage the protest keeping COVID situation in mind, and the norms of social distancing would also be followed.

Tejinder Singh, president of the Paramedical technical staff welfare association, said that the corporation is forcing the employees to go on a protest when they are needed the most. "The government hails us as Corona warriors but do not treat us like one," he commented.

"We all have families. Many amongst us have taken loans, live on rental accommodation, and have children whose schools and colleges are demanding fees. How would we incur our expenses when we are not paid? We repeatedly asked the corporation to clear our dues, but our requests fell on deaf ears. We don't have any option but to go on protest," he said.

Besides, Singh also said that the staff of Hindu Rao had not received arrears of seventh pay commission, bonus and dearness allowances for two years. "These are our rights which we are being denied. The protest is to call out injustice and ignorance we face from the administration," he added.

The nurses of the hospital corroborated with Singh. However, they also added the issues they are facing since the pandemic started that they would be rising through the protest.

Nurses complain lack of facilities despite hospital gearing up as dedicated COVID care

Indumati Jaiswal, president of nurses' welfare association of the hospital, said that apart from salaries, the hospital is not providing many facilities required by the staff to battle the pandemic. The Delhi government had designated the hospital as a dedicated COVID facility on June 16.

"The preparedness for such responsibility is completely shoddy. There is no provision for air conditioners and coolers for us. We have to work wearing PPE kits for six hours straight under ceiling fans. The lack of AC and coolers amplifies our struggle to stay under PPE kits for longer hours. We can't even drink water in that duration. It's just inhumane," Jaiswal said.

Jaiswal also said that the hospital is facing staff crunch, yet, have not prepared a roster for the nurses. "The hospital has 238 nurses on 700 doctors. This is opposite to the prescribed guidelines of the Indian Nurses Council that suggests four nurses per doctor as a healthy ratio. Here, we have less than five nurses per doctor. A complete opposite of an ideal scenario," she complained.

Jaiswal said that the room for donning and doffing the PPE kits should be outside the ward. "In the hospital, it's within the ward, and the nurses have to cross through the patients to wear in and out the PPE suits. It increases the risk of contracting COVID-19 from the patients," she said.

The hospital employees informed that more than 40 healthcare workers from Hindu Rao had contracted the COVID-19 infection.

The corporation argues lack of funds behind delay in salaries

Indu Singhal, the deputy commissioner of North Delhi Municipal Commissioner, told media corporation is in the process to resolve the salary issues of the Hindu Rao Hospital's staff. "We have received their complaints and pursuing the matter. We will release their dues as soon as we receive the funds from the government," she said.

However, a senior official of the corporation revealed that the corporation is reeling under an acute shortage of funds. "Even the employees working in the corporation have not been paid salaries. The employees of A-grade are not paid since March," the official said.

Singhal said that the dispersion of salaries starts from the lower base. "Many officers, including I have not been paid," she added.