UK just weeks behind Italy in coronavirus outbreak, warns Boris Johnson

Washington, Jun 9: When epidemiologists talked about "flattening the curve," they probably didn't mean it this way: the US hit its peak coronavirus caseload in April, but since that time the graph has been on a seemingly unending plateau.

That's unlike several other hard-hit countries which have successfully pushed down their numbers of new cases, including Spain and Italy, which now have bell-shaped curves.

Experts say the prolonged nature of the US epidemic is the result of the cumulative impact of regional outbreaks, as the virus that started out primarily on the coasts and in major cities moves inward.

Layered on top of that are the effects of lifting lockdowns in parts of the country that are experiencing rising cases, as well as a lapse in compliance with social distancing guidelines because of economic hardship, and in some cases a belief that the threat is overstated.

"The US is a large country both in geography and population, and the virus is at very different stages in different parts of the country," Tom Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told AFP.

The US saw more than 35,000 new cases for several days in April. While that figure has declined, it has still been exceeding 20,000 regularly in recent days.

By contrast, Italy was regularly hitting more than 5,000 cases per day in March but is currently experiencing figures in the low hundreds.

"We did not act quickly and robustly enough to stop the virus spreading initially, and data indicate that it travelled from initial hotspots along major transport routes into other urban and rural areas," added Frieden, now CEO of the non-profit Resolve to Save Lives.

To wit: the East Coast states of New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts accounted for about 50 percent of all cases until about a month or so ago -- but now the geographic footprint of the US epidemic has shifted to the Midwest and southeast, including Florida.

Another key problem, said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins, is that the United States is still not doing enough testing, contact tracing and isolation.

After coming late to the testing party -- for reasons ranging from technical issues to regulatory hurdles -- the US has now conducted more COVID-19 tests than any other country.

It even has one of the highest per capita rates per country of 62 per 1,000 people, according to the website ourworldindata.org -- better than Germany (52 per 1,000) and South Korea (20 per 1,000).

But according to Nuzzo, these numbers are misleading, because "the amount of testing that a country should do should be scaled to the size of its epidemic.

"The United States has the largest epidemic in the world so obviously we need to do a lot more testing than any other country."

For Johns Hopkins, the more important metric is the positivity rate -- that is, out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19.

As of June 7, the United States had an average daily positivity rate of 14 percent, well above the World Health Organization guideline of 5 percent over two weeks before social distancing guidelines should be relaxed.

By contrast, Germany, which has tested far fewer people in relation to its population, has a positivity rate of 5 percent.

Even if testing were scaled up, carrying out tests in of itself does very little good without the next steps -- finding out who was exposed and then asking them to isolate.

Here also, too many US states are lagging woefully behind.

Texas, which is experiencing a surge in cases after relaxing its lockdown, is a case in point. The state targeted hiring a modest 4,000 tracers by June, but according to local reports is still more than a thousand shy of even that goal.

Opt-in app based efforts have also been slow to get off the ground.

Then there is the fact that some people are growing tired of lockdowns, while others don't have the economic luxury of being able to stay home for prolonged periods.

The government sent some 160 million Americans a single stimulus check of up to $1,200 back in April but it's not clear whether more will be forthcoming.

Still others, particularly in so-called red states under Republican leadership, have chafed under restrictions and mask-wearing guidelines that they see as an affront to their personal freedom.

"The US is kind of on the extreme of the individual liberty side," Sten Vermund, dean of the Yale School of Public Health, told AFP.

Part of this has to do with mixed messaging from Republican leaders, including President Donald Trump, said Nuzzo.

"We have had at the highest political level an assertion that this is a situation that's been overblown, and that maybe certain protective behaviors are not necessary," she said.

More recently, tens of thousands of people across the country have taken to the streets to protest the killing on an unarmed black man by police, risking coronavirus infection to demonstrate against the public health threat of racialized state violence.

Washington, May 8: Four top Republican senators have urged US President Donald Trump to suspend all-new guest worker visas for 60 days and some of its categories, including the H-1B visa, for at least the next year or until unemployment figures return to normal levels in the country.

The unemployment figures in the US have reached an all-time high due to the coronavirus pandemic. The letter has been signed by Senators Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Chuck Grassley and Josh Hawley.

"As you know, more than 33 million Americans have filed for unemployment coverage just since mid-March, and approximately one-fifth of the American workforce is currently out of work. This is a stunning difference compared with the historically-low nationwide unemployment rate of just 3.5 per cent in February this year," they said in their letter to the president on Thursday.

The letter, dated May 7, specifically calls for suspension of all non-immigrant guest worker visas for the next 60 days, followed by a continued suspension of certain categories of new non-immigrant guest worker visas for a year or until the national unemployment figures return to normal levels.

"To protect unemployed Americans in the early stages of economic recovery, we urge you to suspend all non-immigrant guest worker visas for the next 60 days," the senators said.

Exceptions to this suspension should be rare, limited to time-sensitive industries such as agriculture and issued only on a case-by-case basis, when the employers can demonstrate that they have been unable to find Americans to take the jobs, the senators wrote.

After 60 days, the senators urged Trump to continue to suspend new non-immigrant guest workers for a year or until the national unemployment figures return to normal levels, whichever comes first.

"That suspension should, at a minimum, include H-2B visas (non-agricultural seasonal workers), H-1B visas (specialty occupation workers) and the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program (extension of foreign student visas after graduation). We also urge you to suspend the EB-5 immigrant visa program, effective immediately," the lawmakers wrote.

The H-1B work visa for foreign technology professionals is highly popular among Indians and a large number of Indians also opt for the EB-5 investors visa.

The senators argued that there is no reason why unemployed Americans and recent college graduates should have to compete in such a limited job market against an influx of additional H-1B workers, most of whom work in business, technology or STEM fields.

"Temporarily suspending the issuance of new H-1B visas would also protect the hundreds of thousands of H-1B workers and their families already working in the United States -- workers who could otherwise be subject to deportation if they are laid off for more than 60 days," they said.

"Of course, appropriate exceptions could also be crafted to the H-1B program suspension to allow for doctors, nurses and other healthcare professionals who wish to come to the United States to assist in combating the coronavirus pandemic," the senators wrote.

Additionally, the United States ought to suspend its Optional Practical Training (OPT) programme, which allows foreign students in the country to extend their stay after graduation for one to three years to get "experience in the field" by taking jobs here, they wrote.

In 2019, more than 223,000 former foreign students had their OPT applications approved or extended. While the merits of such a programme are subject to debate, there is certainly no reason to allow foreign students to stay for three additional years just to take jobs that would otherwise go to unemployed Americans as the country's economy recovers, the lawmakers said.

The senators also urged Trump to remove the EB-5 visa from the exemptions in his Presidential Proclamation issued on April 22, at least until real reforms are adopted.

The EB-5 programme has long been plagued by scandal and fraud, and criticised as effectively functioning as a pay-for-citizenship scheme in many cases. There is no reason that the programme should receive preferential treatment as opposed to other green card programmes for employment-based immigrants, the lawmakers said.

Washington, Jun 26: The United States reported more than 39,000 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, its highest-ever single-day count as the government relaxed restrictions and is downplaying the threat of the deadly virus.

According to the Washington Post, experts believe there is a troubling lack of consistent, unified messaging from President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. They have downplayed the danger and denigrated effective disease defences such as mask-wearing, testing, and social distancing.

Churches, beaches, and bars are filling up with people and so are hospital beds, the report said.

The counties home to Dallas, Phoenix, and Tampa all reported record-high averages on at least 15 straight days in June.

The hardest-hit states are California, Texas, Florida and those that thought they had the virus under control, like Utah and Oregon.

"I think the politicians are in denial," said Kami Kim, director of the Division of Infectious Disease and International Medicine at the University of South Florida.

The chief of the Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at the University of Utah Health, Andrew T. Pavia, is of the view that the push to reopen quickly even as cases climb sends a dangerous and inaccurate message.

"On the one hand, you get messages from politicians and the business community that we have to go, go, go and open up," he said. "On the other hand, you're seeing epidemiological indicators that we still have to be very careful."

"It's cognitive dissonance," he added.

The Trump administration has tried to downplay the rising number. Pence called concerns about another surge of infections "overblown," the product of media "fearmongering."

Some governors have followed the administration's lead, blaming rising caseloads on more testing.

Testifying before a congressional committee this week, Anthony S. Fauci, the nation's top infectious-diseases expert, said the new cases were "a disturbing surge" spurred by community transmission rather than testing.

"That's something I'm really quite concerned about," Fauci said. "A couple of days ago, there were 30,000 new infections. That's very disturbing to me."

Several states like Arizona, Arkansas, the Carolinas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas and Utah have recently reported new highs in the number of coronavirus patients hospitalized.

"We're seeing a 40 per cent increase in the last two weeks in hospitalizations," said Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins (D), the jurisdiction's top elected official. "We're by far at our record numbers, and we're at record numbers in north Texas. Houston is at a record, the state is at a record." The Texas Medical Center in Houston, a massive medical complex, reported Thursday that 100 per cent of the beds in its intensive care unit are occupied.