US sanctions waiver intended to 'wean' countries like India off Russian equipment

Agencies
October 6, 2018

Washington, Oct 6: The US presidential waiver on weapons deal with sanctions-hit Russia is intended to "wean" countries like India off the Russian equipment, the White House has said as New Delhi inked a USD 5 billion deal to purchase S-400 Triumf air defence system from Moscow.

The mega deal was sealed in New Delhi on Friday during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin for the annual summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In a guarded reaction, the US said Friday its intent to slap sanctions against Russia was not aimed at imposing damage to the military capabilities of its "allies or partners," shortly after India concluded the deal for purchase of S-400 missiledefence system from Russia.

The S-400 missile defence system would give India's defence a cutting-edge security against any missile attack by its enemies.

"The (CAATSA presidential) waiver is narrow, intended to wean countries off Russian equipment and allow for things such as spare parts for previously-purchased equipment," a White House National Security Council Spokesperson told PTI hours after the conclusion of the S-400 contract.

The deal was concluded during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin for the annual summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

President of US-India Strategic and Partnership Forum Mukesh Aghi said: "India lives in a very turbulent and nuclear-powered region. S-400 provides that assurance and is compatible with its current platform. Friends understand that these discussions with Russia started several years ago hence I do not believe US will impose sanction on India".

But for the presidential waiver, Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act or CAATSA sanctions kicks in in the event of a major purchase like S-400 missile defence system. Ahead of the deal, the US had urged India not to purchase S-400. It reiterated Friday.

"The Administration has indicated that a focus area for the implementation of CAATSA Section 231 is new or qualitative upgrades in capability “ including the S-400 air and missile defense system," the White House NSC Spokesperson said.

Last month, the US had imposed sanctions on China for the purchase of S-400 from Russia.

"Our recent action to sanction a Chinese government entity for an S-400 delivery underscores the seriousness of our resolve on this issue. The waiver authority is not country-specific. There are strict criteria for considering a waiver," said the spokesperson.

The State Department, which is tasked with reviewing the deal and initiated the process of sanctions or waiver under CAATSAA, and then recommend to the president, did not respond to the question on the time frame and the process.

However, an industry source said the law is ambiguous about "when a waiver is necessary so this can be avoided for years".

The National Defense Authorization ACT (NDDA) 2019 gives president the power to waive of the CAATSA sanctions if it is national security interest. It also lists out several other options for presidential waiver, prominent among which is the purchase country – India in this case – is taking or will take steps to reduce its inventory of major defense equipment and advanced conventional weapons produced by the defense sector of the Russian Federation as a share of its total inventory of major defense equipment and advanced conventional weapons over a specified period.

In fact, over the last more than a decade, India the top arms purchaser of the world, has gradually reduced its dependence on Russian arms. It now stands at about 60 per cent, which is much lower than it was a decade ago. The US has been a major beneficiary of this move.

As part of its diversification plan, India has increased its purchase of arms from the US from about zero to more than USD 18 billion. India is in the process of purchasing arms and equipment worth billions of dollars from the US in the coming years including armed and unarmed drones and fighter jets.

A presidential waiver can also be given if a country like India in this case is cooperating with the US government on other security matters critical to the US strategic interests. Experts believe that is exactly the case and one of the main reasons for US designating India as a 'Major Defence Partner'.

"I don't like to make predictions in today's Washington but sanctioning India, and surrendering the Indian defence market to Russia, would have exactly the opposite of the intended effect of CAATSA. No American interest group benefits from sanctioning India," Benjamin Schwartz from US India Business Council said.

He has previously served as the director for India in the US office of the secretary of defence.

Aparna Pande, from the Hudson Institute think-tank, said "I believe what is more likely is that even though India will sign the S-400 deal, it will delay payment, etc so that the sanctions don't come into effect.

"This way India maintains its strategic autonomy and historical ties with Russia and yet ensures its strategic relationship with the US is not impacted either," Pande said.

According to Rick Rossow, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank: "Congress widened the waiver criteria with India in mind, and the fact we had a robust '2+2 Dialogue' in Delhi a month back shows that the administration believes in the momentum".

The Russian Embassy in the US tweeted that that the delivery of S-400 will begin in October 2020.

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Agencies
August 6,2020

Mumbai, Aug 6: Former Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan said on Thursday that overly focusing on what sovereign rating agencies think can take one's eyes off what needs to be done for the economy.

"It is also important to convince both domestic and international investors that after the crisis associated with the pandemic is over, we will return to fiscal responsibility over the medium term, and the government should do more to convince them of that," Rajan told the Global Markets Forum.

India was placed under one of the strictest lockdowns in the world in late March for more than two months to stem the spread of the coronavirus, but cases have continued to rise steadily since the government eased restrictions in June, stymieing hopes of an economic recovery.

The government has announced several initiatives to help the poor and small- and medium-size businesses, but actual cash outgo from the government's measures has been estimated at just about 1% of GDP.

Several attribute the fiscal prudence to fear of a downgrade after Moody's cut India's rating and outlook in early June followed closely by a change in outlook from Fitch.

The central bank on its part too has reduced the key lending rate by 115 basis points on top of the 135 bps last year and is widely expected to cut rates by another 25 bps later on Thursday.

"The RBI and government have certainly been cooperating, but it seems like it is elsewhere, the ball is in the government's court to do more," Rajan said.

He said the RBI needs to focus on whether credit is reaching the stressed areas of the economy and also if the viable firms were able to access credit and not the unviable ones.

"And I think that's where it has to focus its attentions, because resources, as you well know, are limited in India today."

Recently analysts, however, have cited the growing possibility the RBI may prefer to pause and cut rates only at its October meeting.

Government officials too have suggested the possibility of any more fiscal stimulus being announced, would only come in the second half of the fiscal year, once a recovery has taken root and coronavirus cases have peaked.

"What India should focus on at this point is protecting its economic capabilities, so that when it has dealt with the virus it can go resume activity in a reasonable way. That should be the focus," Rajan said.

"And if it does that, there is no reason why the rating agencies will not see that as an appropriate policy".

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News Network
January 20,2020

New Delhi, Jan 20: Surging inflation and slowing growth are raising serious concerns about the future growth prospects of the economy and as a remedial measure the government should resolve supply-side hurdles and ensure more stringent governance norms, a report said on Monday.

According to the Dun and Bradstreet Economy forecast, even though the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) turned positive in November 2019, it is likely to remain subdued.

"Slowdown in consumption and investment along with high inflationary pressures, geopolitical issues and uncertainty over the recovery of the economic growth are likely to keep IIP subdued," the report noted.

Dun and Bradstreet expect IIP to remain around 1.5-2.0 percent during December 2019.

As per government data, industrial output grew 1.8 percent in November, turning positive after three months of contraction, on account of growth in the manufacturing sector.

On the price front, uneven rainfall along with floods in many states and geopolitical issues have led to a surge in headline inflation even as demand remains muted.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December rose to about five-and-half year high of 7.35 percent from 5.54 percent in November, mainly driven by high vegetable prices.

"The sharp rise in inflation has constrained monetary policy stimulus while revenue shortfall has placed limits on the government expenditure," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.

According to Singh, growth-supporting measures and deceleration in growth are likely to cause slippage in fiscal deficit target by a wider margin.

"The government should focus on taking small steps to address the slowdown; in particular, resolve the supply-side hurdles and ensure more stringent governance norms," Singh said.

Unless these concerns are addressed through a comprehensive policy framework, it will not be easy for India to clock a sustainable growth rate to become a USD 5 trillion economy, he added.

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Agencies
June 9,2020

Srinagar, Jun 9: Suspended Jammu and Kashmir DSP Davinder Singh, who was nabbed while ferrying two Hizbul Mujahideen terrorists on the Srinagar-Jammu Highway, moved a Delhi court on Tuesday seeking interim bail.

Besides Singh, two other accused -- Syed Naveed Mushtaq and Imran Shafi Mir -- have also sought bail. The Special Cell of the Delhi Police is probing their role in the alleged planning of a terror attack.

The trio has sought bail asserting that there is no evidence to show that there was any conspiracy to commit an act that would threaten the sovereignty of the country. The court has listed the matter for hearing on Wednesday.

"The accused are wrongly and falsely implicated in the case. There is also no material to substantiate that the accused had the intention or conspired to carry out a terror strike," the plea stated.

Singh is currently under judicial custody at the Hira Nagar Jail in J&K till June 16. Besides Singh, three other accused -- Javed Iqbal, Syed Naveed Mushtaq and Imran Shafi Mir -- are also under custody.

Delhi Police's Special Cell had brought him from Hira Nagar Jail to the national capital in March for interrogation in another case.

The police had earlier told the court that Mushtaq, who was the commander of Hizbul Mujahiddeen in Shopian district, along with other militants were planning to execute a terror attack in Delhi and other parts of the country and targeted killings of protected persons.

In connection with this, the Delhi Police had filed an FIR which stated that the youth of Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab are being trained for carrying out terrorist activities. Singh was taken into custody under this FIR and was also interrogated regarding the Khalistan angle.

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