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New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

Kalaburagi, Apr 17: Hundreds of people participated in the Siddhalingeswara temple chariot festival in Chitapur village on Thursday, violating the lockdown orders.

"Today at 6.30 am, around 100-150 people had come near Siddalingeshwara temple for about 20 mintues and took part in chariot pulling procession," Superintendent of Police Lada Martin said.

A case has been registered against 20 people and further investigation is going to ascertain more details related to the religious gathering.
Meanwhile, a sub-inspector has been suspended.

Thirty-six cases of coronavirus were reported in Karnataka on Thursday, taking the state's tally to 315.

Riyadh, May 13: Saudi Arabia’s cabinet on Tuesday urged oil-producing nations not only to adhere to agreed cuts to production, but further reduce output to help restore balance in global oil markets, state news agency SPA reported.

In issuing the call to OPEC+, which includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other nations, ministers said the Kingdom is committed to supporting the stability of global oil markets.

After the meeting, acting Minister of Media Majed Al-Qasabi said that in addition to its commitment to the OPEC+ agreement, the Kingdom will voluntarily reduce output by an additional 1 million barrels a day in June. It will also try to implement additional cuts this month, with the consent of its customers, he added.

The cabinet said the Saudi initiatives aim to encourage other countries, whether they have signed up to the OPEC+ agreement or not, to adhere to its reduced rates and to cut output even further to help stabilize global oil markets.

During the cabinet meeting, which was conducted using video conferencing, King Salman also briefed ministers on his recent telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump. He said they affirmed the historical and strategic relationship between the two countries and their commitment to the continuation of joint efforts to enhance security and stability in the region.

Ministers were then updated on the latest developments in the corona virus crisis, including the steps being taken locally and internationally to control it and safeguard public health, the number of cases in the Kingdom and the care being provided to those who are infected. They also reviewed details of the active screening and testing programs in all parts of the country, which have helped to keep the number of deaths relatively low compared to global rates.

The cabinet praised the efforts being made by government officials to combat the pandemic, and stressed that citizens and expatriates must abide by the precautionary and preventive measures introduced to prevent the spread of the virus.

Ministers described the decision by Saudi Arabia to host the Pledging Event for the Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen 2020 on June 2 as an extension of the Kingdom’s humanitarian and development contribution, which reflects its pioneering role in supporting its neighbor.

The cabinet also welcomed the formation of the new government in Iraq and reiterated Saudi Arabia’s support for the nation and its readiness to work with the new administration to strengthen relations and enhance security and stability in the region.