World economy needs Trump to build bridges, not burn them: experts

November 23, 2016

Paris, Nov 23: President-elect Donald Trump's big-spending plan to revitalize US infrastructure could be just the ticket to drag the world economy out of its post-crisis torpor, experts say.

trade

But there is a huge caveat, they warn: the plan's benefits would be eroded if Trump executes his avowed aim of putting “America first” and tearing up commercial pacts, potentially igniting a trade war.

The Republican property tycoon's team says he will devote $550 billion to rebuilding decrepit highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools and hospitals — something that President Barack Obama failed to persuade Republicans in Congress to back.

The idea has support from the International Monetary Fund, the Federal Reserve and Democrats, all keen to see the United States raise its productive capacity, despite the likelihood it will also ramp up its debt.

“All public money invested in US infrastructure — which badly needs it — can only be welcome,” said Ludovic Subran, chief economist at the trade insurance company Euler Hermes.

The United States suffers from congested highways, collapsing bridges and a ramshackle rail network. Bemoaning the state of US airports during the election campaign, Trump said “we've become a Third World country.”

Economies further afield would benefit at a time when Europe and Japan are struggling with the debilitating effects of deflation or anaemic growth.

“Inflation would spread everywhere in the world,” in a welcome filip to the central banks of Europe and Japan, according to Laurent Geronimi, a senior asset manager at the private bank Swiss Life.

Indeed, the bond markets have already signalled as much with trillions of dollars wiped off valuations since Trump's election — a sign that investors expect a debt-fueled spending splurge to drive up interest rates.

That would benefit millions of savers and investors in pension funds who have struggled since the 2008 financial crisis ushered in a period of rock-bottom rates across the West.

Emerging markets could also win out if the dollar continues its recent bull run sparked by expectations of higher inflation and borrowing costs.

“If the American currency appreciates, that's a good thing for us because we are exporters of oil and of raw materials that are priced in dollars. And when the dollar appreciates, we earn a bit more,” said Lucas Abaga Nchama, governor of the Bank of Central African States.

'Double-edged sword'

But inflation, of course, is a double-edged sword. Workers worldwide risk losing out in their pay packets — including those Americans who rallied to Trump's banner. US homeowners would also suffer from dearer mortgage costs.

And then there is the potential impact on global growth if Trump delivers on his pledges to rewrite the rules of trade in favor of blue-collar Americans.

Already on Monday, Trump said his new administration would immediately signal its withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a vast undertaking in free trade painstakingly negotiated by Obama's team that has yet to take force.

The incoming president is also threatening to upend the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, and a separate pact under discussion between the United States and Europe appears to be on life support.

At the same time, Trump accuses China of being a rogue trader guilty of stiffing the average American, and economists dread the potential for 1930s-style protectionism that could arise.

“If we do go into much more of an isolationist position, with protectionist policies, it seems only fair to expect a response from our trading partners,” said Standard & Poor's chief US economist Beth Ann Bovino.

“The worry of course is we could go into a tit-for-tat where everybody loses.”

Olivier Blanchard, a former IMF chief economist who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, stressed that Trump will have to tread a fine line between pro-growth spending on infrastructure and depressive measures on trade.

Where the line falls will decide the difference between “expansion or recession,” he warned.

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News Network
February 12,2020

Feb 12: China on Wednesday reported another drop in the number of new cases of a viral infection and 97 more deaths, pushing the total dead past 1,100 as postal services worldwide said delivery was being affected by the cancellation of many flights to China.

The National Health Commission said 2,015 new cases had been reported over the last 24 hours, declining for a second day. The total number of cases in mainland China reached 44,653, although many experts say a large number of others infected have gone uncounted.

The additional deaths raised the mainland toll to 1,113. Two people have died elsewhere, one in Hong Kong and one in the Philippines.

In the port city of Tianjin, just southeast of Beijing, a cluster of cases has been traced to a department store in Baodi district. One-third of Tianjin’s 104 confirmed cases are in Baodi, the Xinhua state news agency reported.

A salesperson working in the store’s small home appliance section became the first individual in the cluster to be diagnosed on Jan. 31, Xinhua said. The store was already closed at that point, then disinfected on Feb. 1. Nevertheless, several more diagnoses soon followed.

The next to have their infections confirmed were also salespeople at the store. They had not visited Wuhan recently and, with the exception of one married couple, the patients worked in different sections of the store and did not know one another, according to Xinhua.

Japan’s Health Ministry said that 39 new cases have been confirmed on a cruise ship quarantined at Yokohama, bringing the total to 174 on the Diamond Princess.

The U.S. Postal Service said that it was “experiencing significant difficulties” in dispatching letters, parcels and express mail to China, including Hong Kong and Macau.

Both the U.S. and Singapore Post said in notes to their global counterparts that they are no longer accepting items destined for China, “until sufficient transport capacity becomes available.”

The Chinese mail service, China Post, said it was disinfecting postal offices, processing centers and vehicles to ensure the virus doesn’t spread via the mail and to protect staff.

It said the crisis is also impacting mail that transits China to other destinations including North Korea, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.

The World Health Organization has named the disease caused by the virus as COVID-19, avoiding any animal or geographic designation to avoid stigmatization and to show the illness comes from a new coronavirus discovered in 2019.

The illness was first reported in December and connected to a food market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak has largely been concentrated.

Zhong Nanshan, a leading Chinese epidemiologist, said that while the virus outbreak in China may peak this month, the situation at the center of the crisis remains more challenging.

“We still need more time of hard working in Wuhan,” he said, describing the isolation of infected patients there a priority.

“We have to stop more people from being infected,” he said. “The problem of human-to-human transmission has not yet been resolved.”

Without enough facilities to handle the number of cases, Wuhan has been building prefabricated hospitals and converting a gym and other large spaces to house patients and try to isolate them from others.

China’s official media reported Tuesday that the top health officials in Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, have been relieved of their duties. No reasons were given, although the province’s initial response was deemed slow and ineffective. Speculation that higher-level officials could be sacked has simmered, but doing so could spark political infighting and be a tacit admission of responsibility.

The virus outbreak has become the latest political challenge for the party and its leader, Xi Jinping, who despite accruing more political power than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, has struggled to handle crises on multiple fronts. These include a sharply slowing domestic economy, the trade war with the U.S. and pushback on China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policies.

China is struggling to restart its economy after the annual Lunar New Year holiday was extended to try to curb the spread of the virus. About 60 million people are under virtual quarantine and many others are still working at home.

In Hong Kong, the diagnosis of four people living in an apartment building prompted worried comparisons with the deadly SARS pandemic of 17 years ago.

More than 100 people were evacuated from the building after a 62-year-old woman diagnosed with the virus was found living 10 floors directly below a man who was earlier confirmed with the virus.

Health officials called it a precautionary measure and sought to assuage fears of an epidemic, dismissing similarities to the SARS community outbreak at the Amoy Gardens housing estate in 2003.

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News Network
January 20,2020

Langkawi, Jan 20: Malaysia will not take retaliatory trade action against India over its boycott of palm oil purchases amid a political row between the two countries, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Monday.

India, the world’s largest edible oil buyer, this month effectively halted imports from its largest supplier and the world’s second-biggest producer in response to comments from Mahathir attacking India’s domestic policies.

“We are too small to take retaliatory action,” Mahathir told reporters in Langkawi, a resort island off the western coast of Malaysia. “We have to find ways and means to overcome that,” he added.

The 94-year-old premier of Muslim-majority Malaysia has criticised New Delhi’s new religion-based citizenship law and also accused India of invading the disputed region of Kashmir.

Mahathir again criticised India’s citizenship law on Monday, saying he believed it was “grossly unfair”.

India has been Malaysia’s largest palm oil market for the past five years, presenting the Southeast Asian country with a major challenge in finding new buyers for its palm oil.

Benchmark Malaysian palm futures fell nearly 10% last week, their biggest weekly decline in more than 11 years.

New Delhi is also unhappy with Malaysia’s refusal to revoke permanent resident status for controversial Indian Islamic preacher Zakir Naik, who has lived in Malaysia for about three years and faces charges of money laundering and hate speech in India.

Mahathir said even if the Indian government guarantees a fair trial, Naik faces the real threat of vigilante action and that Malaysia will only relocate the preacher if it can find a third country where he would be safe.

“If we can find a place for him, we will send him out.”

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News Network
April 27,2020

Seoul/South Korea, Apr 27: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is "alive and well", a top security adviser to the South's President Moon Jae-in said, downplaying rumours over Kim's health following his absence from a key anniversary.
"Our government position is firm," said Moon's special adviser on national security Moon Chung-in, in an interview with CNN on Sunday. "Kim Jong Un is alive and well."

The adviser said that Kim had been staying in Wonsan -- a resort town in the country's east -- since April 13, adding: "No suspicious movements have so far been detected."

Conjecture about Kim's health has grown since his conspicuous absence from the April 15 celebrations for the birthday of his grandfather Kim Il Sung, the North's founder -- the most important day in the country's political calendar.

Kim has not made a public appearance since presiding over a Workers' Party politburo meeting on April 11, and the following day state media reported him inspecting fighter jets at an air defence unit.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was not gravely ill, two South Korean government sources said on Tuesday, following reports he had undergone a cardiovascular procedure and was now in "grave danger."

His absence unleashed a series of unconfirmed media reports over his condition, which officials in Seoul previously poured cold water on.

"We have nothing to confirm and no special movement has been detected inside North Korea as of now," the South's presidential office said in a statement last week.

South Korea's unification minister Kim Yeon-chul reiterated Monday that remained the case, adding the "confident" conclusion was drawn from "a complex process of intelligence gathering and assessment".

'Grave danger'

Daily NK, an online media outlet run mostly by North Korean defectors, has reported Kim was undergoing treatment after a cardiovascular procedure earlier this month.

Citing an unidentified source inside the country, it said Kim, who is in his mid-30s, had needed urgent treatment due to heavy smoking, obesity and fatigue.

Soon afterwards, CNN reported that Washington was "monitoring intelligence" that Kim was in "grave danger" after undergoing surgery, quoting what it said was an anonymous US official.

US President Donald Trump on Thursday rejected reports that Kim was ailing but declined to state when he was last in touch with him.

On Monday, the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper reported that Kim had sent a message of thanks to workers on the giant Wonsan Kalma coastal tourism project.

It was the latest in a series of reports in recent days of statements issued or actions taken in Kim's name, although none has carried any pictures of him.

Satellite images reviewed by 38North, a US-based think tank, showed a train probably belonging to Kim at a station in Wonsan last week.

It cautioned that the train's presence did not "indicate anything about his health" but did "lend weight" to reports he was staying on the country's eastern coast.

Reporting from inside the isolated North is notoriously difficult, especially regarding anything to do with its leadership, which is among its most closely guarded secrets.

Previous absences from the public eye on Kim's part have prompted speculation about his health.

In 2014 he dropped out of sight for nearly six weeks before reappearing with a cane. Days later, the South's spy agency said he had undergone surgery to remove a cyst from his ankle.

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