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Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Chennai, Jun 10: DMK MLA J Anbazhagan who had tested positive for coronavirus and was on ventilator support from June 3 passed away at a hospital in Chennai on Wednesday.

Coincidently, today is the 62nd birthday of the MLA.

"Anbazhagan J, who has been fighting for his life with severe COVID 19 pneumonia rapidly deteriorated early this morning. In spite of full medical support including mechanical ventilation at our COVID facility, he succumbed to his illness. He was declared dead at 08:05 hours on the 10th of June 2020," the hospital said in a statement.

In 2001, Anbazhagan was elected from T Nagar Assembly constituency. He served for five years.

Later in 2011, he was elected to Tamil Nadu Assembly from Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni seat. The DMK leader was re-elected from the same constituency in 2016.

Bengaluru, Jun 15: Karnataka Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa on Monday said those coming to the state from Chennai and Delhi will have to undergo three days of institutional quarantine followed by 11 days of home isolation.

Up till now a seven-day institutional quarantine was prescribed for those returning from Maharashtra, while there was no mandatory institutional quarantine for asymptomatic people returning to Karnataka from other states.

Those returning from states other than Maharashtra were asked to quarantine themselves at home.

"Those coming from Maharashtra are subjected to seven days of institutional quarantine followed by seven days of home quarantine, while those coming from Chennai and Delhi will have to go for three days of institutional quarantine and eleven days of home quarantine," Yediyurappa said.

Speaking to reporters here, he said the decision has been taken following the increase in the number of coronavirus cases from these states.

"It is because of returnees from other states the cases have increased, not because of the local (intra-state) movement, so we have to control people coming from outside, we have to quarantine them and have to tighten measures.

We are making honest efforts in this regard," he added.

Yediyurappa was speaking to reporters after chairing a meeting with top ministers and officials to discuss about the surge in COVID cases in the state.

"There are no plans for any lockdown, and we will request the Prime Minister for more relaxations," the Chief Minister said in response to a question.

Out of total 7,000 cases in the state 4,386 are returnees from Maharashtra and their contacts are 1,340.

Those who returned from abroad comprise 216.

Returnees from other states constitute- Delhi 87, Tamil Nadu 67, Gujarat 62.

Noting that there are indications that the coronavirus infections are expected to increase in the days to come, Yediyurappa assured people that the government will take all precautionary measures required, and appealed to people to cooperate, follow social distancing, and wear masks.

He said it has been decided to observe the coming Thursday as "mask days" by organising a walk across the state and the main event will be held at Vidhana Soudha, the state secretariat.

"Strict measures will be taken against those not wearing masks and not maintaining social distancing here on.

Initially Rs 200 fine will be imposed, this will be throughout the state," he said.

Further stating that the government has made special efforts to control the spread of COVID, he said a special COVID-19 taskforce has been constituted for Bengaluru and surrounding areas, BBMP (city civic body) commissioner and Deputy Commissioners of neighbouring districts have been asked to pay special attention.

As of June 14 evening, cumulatively 7,000 COVID-19 positive cases have been confirmed in the state, which includes 86 deaths and 3,955 discharges.

Out of 2,956 active cases in the state till last evening, 2,940 patients are in isolation at designated hospitals and are stable, while 16 are in ICU.

Yediyurappa said the state's mortality rate is 1.2 per cent while the national average is 2.8 per cent.

The state's recovery rate is 56.6 per cent and the national average is 51 per cent, he said, adding that 93 per cent of the total cases are asymptomatic while the remaining seven per cent are symptomatic.

In Bengaluru, there are 697 cases and out of them 330 are active. The city has reported 36 deaths.