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Mumbai, Jan 10: India’s oil demand growth is set to overtake China by mid-2020s, priming the country for more refinery investment but making it more vulnerable to supply disruption in the Middle East, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

India’s oil demand is expected to reach 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2024 from 4.4 million bpd in 2017, but its domestic production is expected to rise only marginally, making the country more reliant on crude imports and more vulnerable to supply disruption in the Middle East, the agency said.

China’s demand growth is likely to be slightly lower than that of India by the mid-2020s, as per IEA’s China estimates given in November, but the gap would slowly become bigger thereafter.

“Indian economy is and will become even more exposed to risks of supply disruptions, geopolitical uncertainties and the volatility of oil prices,” the IEA said in a report on India’s energy policies.

Brent crude prices topped USD 70 a barrel on rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, putting pressure on emerging markets such as India. Like the rest of Asia, India is highly dependent on Middle East oil supplies with Iraq being its largest crude supplier.

India, which ranks No 3 in terms of global oil consumption after China and the United States, ships in over 80 per cent of its oil needs, of which 65 per cent is from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz, the IEA said.

The IEA, which coordinates release of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) among developed countries in times of emergency, said it is important for India to expand its reserves.

REFINERY INVESTMENTS

India is the world’s fourth largest oil refiner and a net exporter of refined fuel, mainly gasoline and diesel.

India has drawn plans to lift its refining capacity to about 8 million bpd by 2025 from the current about 5 million bpd.

The IEA, however, forecasts India’s refining capacity to rise to 5.7 million bpd by 2024.

This would make “India a very attractive market for refinery investment,” IEA said.

Drawn to India’s higher fuel demand potential, global oil majors like Saudi Aramco, BP, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co and Total are looking at investing in India’s oil sector.

Saudi Aramco and ADNOC aim to own a 50 per cent stake in a planned 1.2-million bpd refinery in western Maharashtra state, for which land is yet to be acquired.

Washington, Jul 18: The government of India has agreed to allow US air carriers to resume passenger services in the US-India market starting July 23, the US Transportation Department said on Friday.

The Indian government, citing the coronavirus, had banned all scheduled services, prompting the US Transportation Department in June to accuse India of engaging in "unfair and discriminatory practices" on charter air carriers serving India.

The Transportation Department said it was withdrawing an order it had issued requiring Indian air carriers to apply for authorization prior to conducting charter flights, and said it had approved an Air India application for passenger charter flights between the United States and India.

A group representing major US airlines and the Indian Embassy in Washington did not immediately comment on Friday.

India's Ministry of Civil Aviation said on Twitter it was moving to "further expand our international civil aviation operations" and arrangements from some flights "with US, UAE, France & Germany are being put in place while similar arrangements are also being worked out with several other countries."

"Under this arrangement," it added, "airlines from the concerned countries will be able to operate flights from & to India along with Indian carriers."

The US Transportation Department order was set to take effect next week. The Trump administration said in June it wanted "to restore a level playing field for US airlines" under the US-India Air Transport Agreement. The Indian government had banned all scheduled services and failed to approve US carriers for charter operations, it added.

The US government said in June that Air India had been operating "repatriation" charter flights between India and the United States in both directions since May 7.