AFSPA is a must if Army has to operate in J&K: Parrikar

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

New Delhi, Apr 17: With 1,076 new cases of COVID-19 in the last 24 hours and 32 deaths, India's total count of coronavirus cases has surged to 13,835, said the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Friday.

The total cases are inclusive of 1,766 cured and discharged patients, one migrated and 452 deaths. At present, there are 11,616 active COVID-19 cases in the country.

Before the lockdown, the doubling rate of COVID-19 cases was about three days, but according to the data of the past 7 days, the doubling rate of cases now stands at 6.2 days, said Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secretary, Health and Family Welfare.

"Before the lockdown, doubling rate of COVID-19 cases was about three days but according to the data of past 7 days, the doubling rate of cases now stands at 6.2 days," Aggarwal said during the daily briefing on COVID-19.

Aggarwal said that as many as 5 lakh rapid antibody testing kits are being distributed to States and Districts where a high case burden has been observed.

"A total of 1,919 dedicated COVID-19 hospitals with 1.73 lakh isolation beds, 21,800 ICU beds readied in India," he added. 

New Delhi, Apr 3: The total number of coronavirus cases in Delhi has risen to 384, including 259 who were evacuated from Nizamuddin Markaz, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said on Friday.

In last 24 hours, 91 new cases were reported in the national capital and one more person evacuated from the Markaz died due to coronavirus, taking the total number of deaths in the city to five, he said.

Of the 384 cases, 58 had recent foreign travel history and 38 contracted the virus after coming in contact with them, he added.

Kejriwal said community spread of the virus is not taking place in Delhi yet and there is no need to panic as the situation is under control.

The government has made preparations if the virus starts spreading among people, he said.

The chief minister also launched a WhatsApp helpline - 8800007722 for people to enquire about COVID-19, food banks, shelters among others.

Meanwhile, Kejriwal, deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia and experts will interact with students and answer their queries related to the virus at 3 pm on Saturday.