Amit Shah’s son’s company grew by 16,000 times in one year

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Bengaluru, Feb 8: The BJP on Saturday drew flak on Twitter for taking a swipe at Muslim women who appear to be standing in a line to vote in Delhi's assembly polls. ""Kaagaz Nahi Dikayenge Hum" ! ! ! Keep the documents safe, you will need to show them again during NPR exercise (sic)," the party's Karnataka Twitter handle posted using the hashtag #DelhiPolls2020. 

"Kaagaz Nahi Dikayenge Hum" ! ! !

Keep the documents safe, you will need to show them again during #NPR exercise.#DelhiPolls2020 pic.twitter.com/bEojjeKlwI

— BJP Karnataka (@BJP4Karnataka) February 8, 2020

The video, which appears to have been taken from one of the polling booths in Delhi on Saturday, shows burqa-clad women flashing their voter ID cards. While the threatening tone of the tweet is unmissable, the tweet contradicts the government's statement that no person needs to submit any documents during the house-to-house survey for updating the National Population Register (NPR) and that information provided by individuals would be accepted and recorded. 

The tweet has added to the prevailing confusion regarding the NPR exercise in the country. 

The NPR is a list of "usual residents" of the country. In 2010, the data for NPR was collected along with the house-listing phase of the Census of India 2011. The data was updated in 2015 by conducting a door-to-door survey.

Currently, it has been decided to update the NPR along with the house-listing phase of Census 2021 during April to September 2020 in all the states/union territories except Assam.

Most of the opposition parties see NPR as a prelude to the contentious National Register of Citizens (NRC), which has been opposed by even NDA allies like the JD(U). The NPR questionnaire asked details like the birthplace of parents. In combination with the recently amended citizenship law, protesters fear that the registry might be eventually used for NRC. 

As a result, people, predominantly Muslims, have hit the streets as India witnesses one of the most widespread civilian unrest of recent times.

New Delhi, Jan 2: India on Sunday reported the second case of novel coronavirus with a person from Kerala with a travel history to China testing positive, officials said.

"The patient has tested positive for novel coronavirus and is in isolation in a hospital," the health ministry said.

The patient is stable and is being closely monitored, it said.

India's first novel coronavirus case in India was also reported from Kerala with a student testing positive.