Art 370 root cause of terrorism, says Amit Shah as RS clears resolution on J&K

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Mangaluru, May 27: The Dakshina Kannada PU College Principals' Association on Wednesday appealed to the authorities to postpone the evaluation of PUC II answer scripts, as the Novel Coronavirus was still active and there was all possibility of the infection spreading.

Speaking to reporters here, Association President Umesh Karkera said, ''It is our duty to evaluate the answer scripts. But amid the fear of COVID-19 and lockdown, evaluators are not able to reach the valuation Centre to take up the work.

''The department of pre-university education has asked the Deputy Chief Examiners and the Assistant Examiners to reach the venue on May 27 and 29, respectively, to take up the evaluation work.

Bengaluru, May 28: In a first of its kind initiative, the Karnataka government will soon launch 'Statewide Health Register', a project to maintain the health database of all its citizens, announced Medical Education Minister Dr K Sudhakar on Wednesday.

The project will kick start from Chikkaballapura and Dakshina Kannada districts.

"With a vision to efficiently deliver quality healthcare to every citizen, Karnataka will soon have a Statewide Health Register. The pilot project will be implemented in Chikkaballapura & Dakshina Kannada dist shortly and completed in 3-4 months. @CMofKarnataka @PMOIndia @JPNadda," tweeted the Minister.

The government plans to get the data collected with the help of a team of Primary Health Centre (PHC) officials, revenue officials, Education Department staff and ASHA (Accredited Social Health Activist) workers.

"They will visit each household and collect health data of all the members of the family. This will not just help the government to provide better health care facilities, but also build an efficient resource allocation, management and better implementation of various citizen-centric schemes in the state," the minister added.

Sudhakar also said that the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the necessity of having a robust, real-time public health system.

"Very few countries in the world have taken such an initiative. It is a futuristic project which will include 50 per cent partnership of private hospitals. It would be a cumbersome process but if we do this and digitise it, the data could be used for multiple purposes. The data would help us prioritise healthcare based on geography, demography, and other targeted measures. It would also help medical professionals and scientists for innumerable studies," he said.

"We have consulted all specialists from 18 different departments, and taken their advice into account," said the minister.