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Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

The government of India today said it will begin evacuating its nationals stuck abroad due to the coronavirus pandemic from May 7 in a phased manner. This facility would be made available on payment basis. 

A Standard Operating Protocol has been put in place and the travel would be arranged by aircraft as well as naval ships and will be available on a payment-basis, the government said.

"Medical screening of passengers would be done before taking the flight. Only asymptomatic passengers would be allowed to travel. During the journey, all these passengers would have to follow the protocols, such as the health protocols, issued by the ministry of health and the ministry of civil aviation," it said in a statement.

Specifying the protocols upon entry in India, the government said the returning Indians would be medically screened and will have to be quarantined for 14 days, either in a hospital or in an institutional quarantine on payment-basis, by the respective state government.

Mangaluru, Jul 10: Among over a hundred special flights to be operated between India and United Arab Emirates under the fourth phase of Vande Bharat Mission, five flights will be operated from Mangaluru International Airport.

The repatriation flights are also allowed to carry eligible passengers from India to UAE between July 12 and July 26.

These flights will be allowed to carry the ICA approved UAE residents on their onward journey from India to the Gulf country.

According to Air India, while flying from India to UAE, these special flights will carry only those passengers who are destined for the UAE.

Flights from Mangaluru

From Mangaluru, the first special flight will take off on July 13 at 7.30 am and reach Sharjah at 9.30 am.

The second flight is scheduled to take off on July 16 at 9.30 am and reach Dubai airport at 11.20 am.

The third flight will take off on July 19 at 11.00 am and land at Sharjah airport at 1.00 pm.

The fourth flight will take off on July 20 at 7.30 am and reach Sharjah at 9.30 am.

The fifth flight will take off on July 26 at 8.00 am and land at Abu Dhabi Airport at 10.20 am.