'Budget is election manifesto,attempts to bribe voters'

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

New Delhi, Jun 29: Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on Monday paid tribute to the senior doctor of city government-run LNJP Hospital who died battling COVID-19, saying the society has "lost a very valuable fighter".

The 52-year-old doctor served in the front line of the war against the pandemic at the government facility, and died of novel coronavirus infection in an ICU of a private hospital on Sunday.

"Dr Aseem Gupta, a senior doctor of LNJP Hospital succumbed to Covid yday. He was known for going out of his way to serve his patients. We have lost a very valuable fighter. Delhi salutes his spirit and sacrifice...," Kejriwal tweeted.

The chief minister also said in his tweet that he has spoken to Dr Gupta''s wife and "offered my condolences and support".

LNJP Hospital is a dedicated COVID-19 facility under the Delhi government. It recently completed 100 days of being declared a coronavirus facility.

"LNJP Hospital has displayed great fortitude in the face of acute challenges. It''s recovery rate is going up, death rate is reducing, ICU capacity is being ramped up - the hospital is saving so many lives," the chief minister said.

A condolence meeting to pay respect to Dr Gupta has been scheduled at 1 pm in the office of the Medical Director of the hospital, a senior official said.

The doctor, a consultant anaesthesiologist died at the Max hospital, Saket in south Delhi, a private dedicated COVID-19 facility.

"He was a front line anaesthesia specialist who contracted COVID-19 infection while on duty. He tested positive on June 6, when he had mild symptoms and was shifted to a quarantine facility. His symptoms aggravated on June 7 and he was admitted in the Intensive Care Unit of the LNJP Hospital," the LNJP Hospital said in a statement on Sunday.

He was shifted to Max Hospital, Saket on June 8 on his request, it said.

The doctor was battling the disease for the last two weeks at Max Hospital, where he succumbed to the illness on Sunday, the statement said.

He was Specialist, Grade I, in the Department of Anaesthesia at the LNJP Hospital, the statement said.

Several hundreds of healthcare workers have been infected with COVID-19 till date in Delhi.

New Delhi, Jun 25: The Supreme Court on Thursday asked the Centre and the CBSE to issue fresh notification in connection with Class 12 exams, clarifying the option between internal assessment and exams later.

The observation from the top court after it was informed that the CBSE has decided to cancel the remaining board exams for Class 10 and Class 12.

A bench comprising Justices AM Khanwilkar, Dinesh Maheshwari and Sanjiv Khanna asked the Centre to clarify the issue of taking the option between internal assessment and exams later.

"Clarify the date of results," said the bench, noting that the CBSE will have to submit a fresh draft notification cancelling class 12 Board exams and affidavit on Friday morning, before the top court continues to hear the matter again at 10.30 a.m.

The apex court also sought clarity on the beginning of the new academic year.

It told Solicitor General Tushar Mehta, representing the Centre, that the CBSE is willing to conduct exams when the situation is conducive, but this may vary from state to state. "Will the decision be taken by a central authority or will the state government take the decision? How are you going to deal with that situation?"

Mehta replied that the decision must be taken according to the situation. To this, the bench said should not the solution be pan-India?

"You have not said when you will decide on this issue, and when you will take stock of these things. Some time frame will have to be given," noted the bench.

Continuing its queries, the bench said: "What about state regional board exams... the CBSE does not hold all the exams. The state Board is also there."

Mehta replied that the instructions from the controller of examinations are that exams are controlled centrally. "State boards assist the CBSE," he replied.

The bench observed that the government should modify the draft notification and include the state board issue. "Clear the stand that decision will be taken at the central level and not at the state level... other courses will have to be delayed till CBSE exam results come out," it said.

Mehta replied the assessment results will be published now, and if a student wants to opt to give the exam, then that will be conducted later. The top court asked Mehta to bring this on record and redraft the notification.