Chant 'Bharat Mata ki Jai' to stay here: Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

New Delhi, Mar 10: Minutes after Jyotiraditya Scindia submitted his resignation to the party membership to Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, the Congress expelled him for anti-party activities after reports emerged that he had met PM Modi and Amit Shah.

Disgruntled Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday amid indications that he might join hands with the BJP to topple the Madhya Pradesh government.

Sources said Scindia first met Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and then the two leaders met Modi at the prime minister's residence.

Legislators loyal to Scindia, who has been upset with the Congress leadership with his marginalisation in the affairs of the Madhya Pradesh Congress, are likely to quit the party to reduce the Kamal Nath-led government to a minority.

It is likely to be followed by the Bharatiya Janata Party staking claim to form the government in the state.

The Congress President has approved the expulsion of Jyotiraditya Scindia from the Indian National Congress with immediate effect for "anti-party activities," said KC Venugopal, General Secretary Congress.

No person is, nor will be greater than the party: Congress youth wing chief

Indian Youth Congress (IYC) chief Srinivas B V on Tuesday slammed Jyotiraditya Scindia, who has announced his resignation from the primary membership of the Congress, and thanked party chief Sonia Gandhi for expelling the former Guna MP "who was promoting anti-party activities and factionalism".

"The history of 1857 and 1967 was once again repeated," Srinivas B V said, referring to the 1857 Revolt against East India Company and the role of the Scindia royals back then as well as Vijayaraje Scindia's switch from the Congress to the Jana Sangh in 1967.

"I would like to thank Congress president Sonia Gandhiji for taking the strong steps to expel the leader who was promoting anti-party activities and factionalism," the IYC chief said.

"No person is, nor will be greater than the party," he added.

Srinagar, Jan 15: The Jammu and Kashmir administration on Tuesday evening allowed mobile Internet in parts of Jammu region and broadband in establishments providing essential services, days after the Supreme Court ordered a review of the curbs imposed in the Union Territory.

The order comes into effect from January 15 and shall remain in force for seven days, a government communication said.

In a three-page order, the administration asked Internet service providers to offer broadband facility (with Mac binding) to all institutions dealing with essential services such as hospitals, banks and government offices.

In order to facilitate tourism, the broadband Internet services would be provided to hotels and tour and travel establishments, the order said.

Mac Binding essentially means to enforce a client machine to work from a particular Internet Protocol address.

"Prior to giving such facility, the service providers have been asked to install necessary firewalls and carry out white-listing of sites that would enable government websites and website dealing with essential services like e-banking," the order said.

However, all social media sites remain out of bounds. "There shall be complete restrictions on social media applications allowing peer-to-peer communication and virtual private network applications for the time being," the order said.

The institutions and government offices that are being provided Internet access shall be responsible to prevent misuse, according to the order.

It said the 2G mobile connectivity on post-paid mobiles for accessing white-listed websites including e-banking will be allowed in districts of Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Udhampur and Reasi -- all in the Jammu region.

The order said that the police has brought material relating to the terror modules operating in Jammu and Kashmir including handlers from across the border who are attempting to aid and incite people by transmission of fake news and targeted messages through use of Internet.

The relaxation came days after the Supreme Court said access to the Internet is a fundamental right under Article 19 of the Constitution.

The SC verdict had come on Friday on a batch of pleas challenging the curbs imposed in Jammu and Kashmir after the Centre's abrogation of provisions of Article 370 on August 5 last year.

The court had also asked the Jammu and Kashmir administration to review within a week all orders imposing curbs in the Union Territory.

It had asked the J-K administration to restore Internet services in institutions such as hospitals and educational places providing essential services.

The J-K administration's Tuesday communication said that in view of the Supreme Court directions, the situation has been reviewed and Internet has been opened whereever it was possible keeping in view the security consideration.

In Kashmir, 400 additional Internet kiosks will be established, besides the 900 terminals which are already operational in the Valley.