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Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

New Delhi, May 6: The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) has extended the validity of electronic way (E-way) bills, whose expiry date fell between March 20 and April 15, till May 31.

"Notification No. 40/2020-Central Tax issued to extend the validity of e-way bills till May 31 for all those e-way bills which were generated on or before March 24, 2020 and had expiry between the period from March 20 to April 15, 2020," the CBIC tweeted on Tuesday.

E-way bill is produced by transporters and businessmen before a Goods and Services Tax (GST) inspector for moving goods worth over Rs 50,000 from one state to another.

New Delhi, Apr 25: With 1,429 more COVID-19 cases reported in the last 24 hours, India's count of coronavirus cases has reached 24,506, said Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Friday.

Out of these, 18,668 patients are active cases and 5063 cases have been cured, discharged, or migrated.

The death toll stands at 775, with as many as 57 deaths reported in the last 24 hours.

According to the morning update by the ministry, Maharashtra continues to be the worst-hit State with 6,817 cases of which 840 patients have recovered and 301 patients have died.

Gujarat now stands in the second spot with 2,815 cases, of which 265 have recovered and 127 people have died. Meanwhile, Delhi's count stands at 2,514 of which 857 patients have recovered, while 53 patients have lost their lives.

Tamil Nadu's COVID-19 figure stands at 1,755 with 866 patients recovered and 22 fatalities. Rajasthan has reported 2,034 cases of which 230 have recovered and 27 patients are dead.

Madhya Pradesh has reported 1,852 positive cases so far of which 210 patients have recovered and 92 patients have lost their lives due to the virus. In Uttar Pradesh, as many as 1,621 people have confirmed COVID-19, of which 247 recovered and 25 people have succumbed to it.

In Kerala, which reported the country's first COVID-19 case, 450 people have been detected positive for coronavirus.