Can Congress regain power in Karnataka on its own?

[email protected] (CD Network)
February 23, 2012

PS_Feb23

In Karnataka Congress is in a difficult situation for over seven years now. It has faced defeats in successive elections after the drubbing in the Assembly polls of 2004. The party suffered a humiliating setback in 2008 Assembly election and the bypolls forced on the voters of a few Assembly constituencies next year, thanks to ‘Operation Lotus’

However, those who follow Karnataka politics closely know it too well that Congress had endured much worse situation than it itself in today. During 1983-89 the Congress party had to sit in the Opposition for the first time after Janata Party – Janata Dal registered its maiden triumph in the State Assembly. During those seven years, several elections were held and Janata Party had continued its dominance. When Janata Dal came to power for the second time (1994-1999) the Congress had to face a horrible situation.

The traditional vote bank had deserted Congress owing a number of reasons, including the demolition of Babri Masjid. Congress had to eat a humble pie in the 1994 Assembly elections and the misery continued in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections as well. In the Assembly election all that Congress could manage was 35 seats. Its vote share had plummeted to 27.21 per cent. In the Lok Sabha election Congress had to be satisfied with five of the 28 seats, but still its vote share was a healthy 30.29 per cent. In fact, the performance of Congress in these two elections can be easily termed as the party’s worst show in its electoral history.

Despite the seemingly adverse situation, the workers did not lose heart and in 1999 Congress came back to power. However, the party is again in the doldrums, although the situation is not as utterly hopeless as it was in 1994 and 1999. There is a palpable sense of pessimism in the rank and file of the party. The workers are really upset following the successive electoral defeats in the last three years. This is quite understandable. The aggressive brand of politics practiced by the BJP and the mass exodus of the leaders from the dominant communities to the party have left even the Congress leadership worried.

The poor show of the Congress can, in fact, be attributed to the lack of efficient leadership and the failure to contain fragmentation of the anti-BJP votes or secular votes. The BJP has come to power after a sustained struggle spanning over two decades. In the four Assembly elections held in 1994, 1999, 2004 and 2008, the percentage of votes secured by the BJP has seen a steady increase. But, significantly the party’s vote share still remains lower than the percentage of votes garnered by Congress.

Although BJP secured power in 2008 by securing 110 seats, the party polled two lakh fewer votes than the Congress. If you analyse the results of the elections, you will understand that even if the Congress had managed to secure five per cent more votes, the situation would have been totally different. This would have made a huge difference to the 66 per cent anti-BJP votes and Congress would have easily garnered additional 50-odd seats.

It is a fact that secular votes get divided between Congress and the JD(S). In the 2004 Assembly elections Congress had managed to secure 35.28 per cent votes while JD(S) had netted 20.59 per cent. However, BJP, which managed only 33.86 per cent votes, ended up winning 79 seats, much higher than the tally of the Congress and the JD(S). In the 2008 elections, Congress and JD(S) polled 34.59 per cent and 19.57 per cent votes respectively. But BJP, with 33.86 per cent vote share, managed to install its first-ever government in South India.

It is evident that the division of anti-BJP votes has immensely helped the BJP in its march towards the seat of power. JD(S) had realized this fact and was looking forward to an electoral understanding with the Congress in order to force BJP out of power and install another coalition government in Karnataka. However, Congress did not send any signals to its former ruling partner. In fact, all political pundits are of the unanimous opinion that any delay in dislodging the BJP government will weaken the chances of ending the saffron party’s run of success in the State. This gives more time for BJP to strengthen its cadre and party by using both moral and immoral means.

Why is Congress not learning from the repeated electoral reverses? Is the century-old party is waiting for more setbacks to think wake up from the slumber? These are the questions many are asking. Drastic measures are required to strengthen the party in Karnataka. Unfortunately, no clear signal has emerged from the party high command with regard to either electoral alliance with the JD(S) or a post-poll pact with the Deve Gowda’s party. In fact, there are differences within the Karantaka Pradesh Congress Committee over the issue. Few leaders feel that a pact with the JD(S) was the only option to avert division of votes. They also show the statistics of the 2008 and 2009 elections to put across their viewpoint. According to them, the BJP could not have grabbed power in the State or won 19 out of 28 seats if there had been an electoral understanding with the JD(S). However, the faction in the Congress which is opposed to any electoral truck, strongly argue that any understanding with the JD(S) will help the regional party more than strengthening its own base.

Today JD(S) is confined to a family. It clout is limited to three four district. The leaders of that party are dreaming of getting a cabinet berth in the event of a pre-poll alliance with Congress. Over the last seven years, the support base of the party has gradually dwindled. On the other hand the expectations and ambitions of Deve Gowda and his family has scaled new heights. In fact, it does not have a presence in majority of the districts of Karnataka. When it went to polls following the split of the party, it secured only 10.42 per cent of votes. Immediately after the election, as many as six MLAs who had been elected from Congress symbol quit the party and joined JD (S). Among them were five MLAs who had been elected from north Karnataka and Hyderabad-Karnataka regions. Senior leaders like M.P. Prakash and P.G.R. Sindhia joined the bandwagon. JD(S) immensely benefited from these defections in the 2004 election, it surprised everyone by improving its vote share to 20.59 per cent and the tally of seats to 58. The anti-BJP votes had seen a major division during this election and as a result no party was in a position to form the government on its own. Until that election, the vote share of the BJP had not grown to a level (28.49 per cent) which would help it to capture power.

In the 2008 elections, JD(S) had fielded 218 candidates and only 28 got elected to the Assembly. As many as 105 candidates lost their deposits. Among the 28 winners, only nine were from the 12 districts of the north Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka region. This region constitutes 96 assembly seats. In fact, JD(S) could not open its account in as many as 13 districts. In the Lok Sabha elections held the following year, only three candidates got elected among the 21 candidates the party fielded. It did not contest elections in the remaining 7 seats. The percentage of vote polled by the party was 13.57. As many as 11 candidates lost their deposits. Among those who lost, only one candidate stood second. The three seats that jD(S) won and the seat where it came second were part of predominantly Vokkaliga-majority belt consisting of Hassan, Mandya, Bangalore rural and Tumkur. Interestingly, among the 28 seats it won during the 98 Assembly elections as many as 15 seats came under this geographical area. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, 50 per cent of the 33.35 votes the JD(S) polled were recorded from only four districts.

If JD(S) returns to power piggybacking on Congress support, there is no doubt that the Gowda’s party will try to strengthen its base across the State. The division of anti-BJP votes in the future will also become more pronounced closing the door permanently for the Congress to regain power on its own strength. Today the party is not in a position to form a government on its own in states like Jammu Kashmir, Kerala and Maharashtra. Similarly, once the party enters into poll pact with JD(S), its position will be that of Vikram in the celebrated mythological tale of Vikram and Bethal. The Congress will have to piggyback JD(S) every time the State faced an election.

(The writer is a MLC and a senior journalist based in Bidar)


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Ram Puniyani
February 22,2020

This January 2020, it is thirty years since the Kashmiri Pundits’ exodus from the Kashmir valley took place. They had suffered grave injustices, violence and humiliation prior to the migration away from the place of their social and cultural roots in Kashmir Valley. The phenomenon of this exodus had been due to the communalization of militancy in Kashmir in the decade of 1980s. While no ruling Government has applied itself enough to ‘solve’ this uprooting of pundits from their roots, there are communal elements who have been aggressively using ‘what about Kashmiri Pundits?’, every time liberal, human rights defenders talk about the plight of Muslim minority in India. This minority is now facing an overall erosion of their citizenship rights.

Time and over again in the aftermath of communal violence in particular, the human rights groups have been trying to put forward the demands for justice and rehabilitation of the victim minority. Instead of being listened to those particularly from Hindu nationalist combine, as a matter of routine shout back, where were you when Kashmiri Pundits were driven away from the Valley? In a way the tragedy being heaped on one minority is being justified in the name of suffering of Pundits and in the process violence is being normalized. This sounds as if two wrongs make a right, as if the suffering Muslim minority or those who are trying to talk in defense of minority rights have been responsible for the pain of Kashmiri Pundits.

During these three, many political formations have come to power, including BJP, Congress, third front and what have you. To begin with when the exodus took place Kashmir was under President’s rule and V. P. Singh Government was in power at the center. This Government had the external support of BJP at that time. Later BJP led NDA came to power for close to six years from 1998, under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Then from 2014 it is BJP, with Narerda Modi as PM, with BJP brute majority is in power. Other components of NDA are there to enjoy some spoils of power without any say in the policies being pursued by the Government. Modi is having absolute power with Amit Shah occasionally presenting Modi’s viewpoints.

Those blurting, ‘what about Kashmiri Pundits?’ are using it as a mere rhetoric to hide their communal color. The matters of Kashmir are very disturbing and cannot be attributed to be the making of Indian Muslims as it is being projected in an overt and subtle manner. Today, of course the steps taken by the Modi Government, that of abrogation of Article 370, abolition of clause 35 A, downgrading the status of Kashmir from a state to union territory have created a situation where the return of Kashmiri Pundits may have become more difficult, as the local atmosphere is more stifling and the leaders with democratic potential have been slapped with Public Safety Act, where they can be interned for long time without any answerability to the Courts. The internet had been suspended, communication being stifled in an atmosphere where democratic freedoms are curtailed which makes solution of any problem more difficult.

Kashmir has been a vexed issue where the suppression of the clause of autonomy, leading to alienation led to rise of militancy. This was duly supported by Pakistan. The entry of Al Qaeda elements, who having played their role against Russian army in 1980s entered into Kashmir and communalized the situation in Kashmir. The initial Kashmir militancy was on the grounds of Kashmiriyat. Kashmiriyat is not Islam, it is synthesis of teachings of Buddha, values of Vedant and preaching’s of Sufi Islam. The tormenting of Kashmiri Pundits begins with these elements entering Kashmir.

Also the pundits, who have been the integral part of Kashmir Valley, were urged upon by Goodwill mission to stay on, with local Muslims promising to counter the anti Pundit atmosphere. Jagmohan, the Governor, who later became a minister in NDA Government, instead of providing security to the Pundits thought, is fit to provide facilities for their mass migration. He could have intensified counter militancy and protected the vulnerable Pundit community. Why this was not done?

Today, ‘What about Kashmiri Pundits?’ needs to be given a serious thought away from the blame game or using it as a hammer to beat the ‘Muslims of India’ or human rights defenders? The previous NDA regime (2014) had thought of setting up enclosures of Pundits in the Valley. Is that a solution? Solution lies in giving justice to them. There is a need for judicial commission to identify the culprits and legal measures to reassure the Pundit community. Will they like to return if the high handed stifling atmosphere, with large number of military being present in the area? The cultural and religious spaces of Pundits need to be revived and Kashmiryat has to be made the base of any reconciliation process.

Surely, the Al Qaeda type elements do not represent the alienation of local Kashmiris, who need to be drawn into the process of dialogue for a peaceful Kashmir, which is the best guarantee for progress in this ex-state, now a Union territory. Communal amity, the hallmark of Kashmir cannot be brought in by changing the demographic composition by settling outsiders in the Valley. A true introspection is needed for this troubled area. Democracy is the only path for solving the emigration of Pundits and also of large numbers of Muslims, who also had to leave the valley due to the intimidating militancy and presence of armed forces in large numbers. One recalls Times of India report of 5th February 1992 which states that militants killed 1585 people from January 1990 to October 1992 out of which 982 were Muslims and 218 Hindus.

We have been taking a path where democratic norms are being stifled, and the promises of autonomy which were part of treaty of accession being ignored. Can it solve the problem of Pundits?

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Ram Puniyani
March 8,2020

They say ‘history repeats itself first as a tragedy and then as a farce’. In case of India, communal violence not only keeps repeating itself, the pattern of the tragedy keeps changing every next time. Some features of the violence are constant, but they are under the wraps mostly. The same can be said about the Delhi violence (February 2020). The interpretations, the causative factors are very discernible, but those who are generally the perpetrators have a knack of shifting the blame on the victim community or those who stand for the victims.

As the carnage began presumably in the aftermath of statement of Kapil Mishra of BJP, which was given in front of a top police official, in which he threatened to get the roads emptied. The roots of violence were sown earlier. The interpretations given by the Hindu Nationalist camp is that the riot is due to the changing demographic profile of the area with Muslims increasing in number in those areas, and coming up of Shaheen Bagh which was presented was like ‘Mini Pakistan’. As per them the policies of BJP in matters of triple talaq, Article 370 and CAA, NPR, NRC has unnerved the ‘radical’ elements and so this violence.

As such before coming to the observations of the activists and scholars of communal violence in India, we can in brief say that violence, in which nearly 46 people have died, include one from police and another from intelligence. Majority victims are Muslims. The violence started right under the nose of the police and the ruling party. From the videos and other eye accounts, police not only looked the other way around, at places it assisted those attacking the innocent victims and burning and looting selective shops. Home minister, Amit Shah, was nowhere on the scene. For first three days the rioters had free run. After the paramilitary force was brought in; the violence simmered and slowly reduced in intensity. The state AAP Government, which in a way is the byproduct of RSS supported Anna Hazare movement, was busy reading Hanuman Chalisa and praying at Rajghat with eyes closed to the mayhem going in parts of Delhi.

Communal violence is the sore point of Indian society. It did begin during colonial period due to British policy of ‘Divide and Rule’. At root cause was the communal view of looking at history and pro active British acts to sow the seeds of Hindu-Muslim divide. At other level the administrative and police the British were fairly neutral. On one hand was the national movement, uniting the people and creating and strengthening the fraternal feeling among all Indians. On the other were Muslim Communalists (Muslim League) and Hindu Communalists (Hindu Mahasabha, RSS) who assisted the British goal of ‘divide and rule’ promoting hatred between the communities. After partition the first major change was the change in attitude of police and administration which started tilting against Muslims. Major studies by Dr. Asghar Ali Engineer, Paul Brass and Omar Khalidi demonstrated that anti Muslim bias is discernible in during and after the riots.

Now the partisan role of police has been visible all through. Sri Krishna Commission report brought forth this fact; as did the research of the Ex DIG of UP police Dr. V.N.Rai. Dr. Rai’s studies also concluded that no communal violence can go on beyond 24 hours unless state administration is complicit in the carnage. In one of the violence, investigation of which was done by concerned Citizen’s team (Dhule, 2013) this author observed that police itself went on to undertake the rampage against Muslims and Muslim properties.

General observation about riots is that violence sounds to be spontaneous, as the Home Minister is pointing out, but as such it is well planned act. Again the violence is orchestrated in such a way that it seems Muslims have begun the riots. Who casts the First stone? To this scholars point out that the carnage is so organized that the encircled community is forced to throw the first stone. At places the pretext is made that ‘they’ (minorities) have thrown the first stone.

The pretexts against minorities are propagated, in Gujarat violence Godhra train burning, in Kandhamal the murder of Swami Laxamannand and now Shaheen bagh! The Hindu Muslim violence began as riots. But it is no more a riot, two sides are not involved. It is plain and simple anti Minority violence, in which some from the majority are also the victims.

This violence is possible as the ‘Hate against this minority’ is now more or less structural. The deeper Hate against Muslims and partly against Christians; has been cultivated since long and Hindu nationalist politics, right from its Shakhas to the social media have been put to use for spreading Hatred. The prevalent deeper hate has been supplanted this time by multiple utterances from BJP leaders, Modi (Can be recognized by clothes), Shah (press EVM machine button so hard that current is felt in Shaheen Bagh), Anurag Thakur (Goli (bullet) Maro) Yogi Aditya Nath (If Boli (Words)Do not work Goli will) and Parvesh Varma (They will be out to rape).

The incidental observation of the whole tragedy is the coming to surface of true colors of AAP, which not only kept mum as the carnage was peaking but also went on to praise the role of police in the whole episode. With Delhi carnage “Goli Maro” seems to be becoming the central slogan of Hindu nationalists. Delhi’s this violence has been the first one in which those getting killed are more due to bullets than by swords or knifes! Leader’s slogans do not go in vain! Courts the protectors of our Constitution seem to be of little help as if one of them like Murlidhar Rao gives the verdict to file against hate mongers, he is immediately transferred.

And lastly let’s recall the academic study of Yale University. It concludes; BJP gains in electoral strength after every riot’. In India the grip of communalism is increasing frighteningly. Efforts are needed to combat Hate and Hate mongers.

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Ram Puniyani
August 9,2020

Contrary to present impression that Muslims are separatists due to whom the partition of India took place, the truth is that Muslims contributed to freedom movement and upheld India’s composite culture in equal measure. The partition process, mainly due to British policy of ‘divide and rule’ well assisted by Hindu and Muslim communalists is being hidden from the popular vision in India and Muslims in general are held responsible for the same. Not only that the communal historiography introduced by British to pursue their policies has become the bedrock of communal politics and worsening of the perceptions about Muslims is in progress in India.

Yet another example of this has been a series of tweets by the bureaucrat, who is close to retirement, K. Nageshwar Rao. Contrary to the service rules he has made statements, through his tweets which are appreciative of RSS-BJP and demonise the stalwarts Muslim leaders who not only contributed to the freedom movement but also later gave valuable service in laying the foundation of Independent India. As per Rao, his tweets he accuses Maulana Azad and the other Muslim Education ministers of “deracination of Hindus”. After naming “Maulana Abul Kalam Azad — 11 years (1947-58)”; “Humayun Kabir, M C Chagla & Fakruddin Ali Ahmed — 4 years (1963-67)”; and, “Nurul Hassan — 5 years (1972-77)”, he posts: “Remaining 10 years other Leftists like VKRV Rao.”

He points out that their policies were meant to “1. Deny Hindus their knowledge, 2. Vilify Hinduism as collection of superstitions, 3. Abrahamise Education, 4. Abrahamise Media & Entertainment, 5. Shame Hindus about their identity!  and 6. Bereft of the glue of Hinduism Hindu society dies.”

Then he goes on to praise RSS-BJP for bringing the glory back to Hindus. These statements of his on one hand promote the Hate and on the other tantamount to political statement, which civil servants should not by making. CPM politburo member Brinda Karat has written a letter to Home Minister Amit Shah to take suitable action against the erring bureaucrat.

Rao begins with Maulana Abul kalam Azad. Surely Azad was one of the major leaders of freedom movement, who was also the youngest President of INC, in 1923 and later between 1940 to 1945. He opposed the partition process tooth and nail till the very last. As the Congress President in 1923 he wrote a remarkable Para, symbolizing the urge for Hindu Muslim unity, “If an angel descends from heaven and offers me Swaraj in 24 hours on condition that I give up Hindu Muslim Unity, I will refuse. Swaraj we will get sooner or later; its delay will be a loss for India, but loss of Hindu Muslim unity will be a loss for human kind”. His biographer Syeda Hamid points out “He spoke without an iota of doubt about how debacle of Indian Muslims has been the result of the colossal mistakes committed by Muslim League’s misguided leadership. He exhorted Muslims to make common cause with their Hindu, Sikh, Christian fellow countrymen.” He was the one who promoted the translation of Hindu scriptures Ramayan and Mahabharat in to Persian.

Surely Mr. Rao, neither has read Azad or read about him nor knows his contributions to making of Modern India. While today, the ideological formation to which Mr. Rao seems to be pledging his commitment is critical of all that happened during Nehru era, it was during this period when as education minister Azad was shepherding the formations of IITs, Academies of Science, Lalit kala Academies. It was during this period that the efforts to promote Indian composite culture were undertaken through various steps.

The other stalwarts who are under the hammer have been outstanding scholars and giants in their own field of education. Humayun Kabir, Nurul Hasan, Dr.Zakir Husssain gave matchless ideas and practical contributions in different fields of education. One can say that contrary to the accusations, India could match up to the Computer era, software and associate things, due to creation of large manpower in these areas mainly due to these foundations which were laid down particularly in the field of education during this period.

The charge that these ‘Muslim’ education ministers white washed the bloody Islamic rule is a blind repetition of the offshoot of communal historiography introduced by British. While Kings were ruling for power and wealth, their courts had Hindus and Muslim both officers. The jaundiced vision sees this as a bloody Islamic rule but as a matter of fact the syncretic culture and traditions developed precisely this period. It was during this period that Bhakti Traidtion with Kabir, Tukaram, Namdeo, Tulsidas flourished. It was during this period that humane values of Sufi saints reached far and wide. It was during this period that poets like Rahim and Raskhan produced their classic literature n praise of Hindu Gods.

We also need to remind ourselves that large number of Muslims participated in the freedom Movement. Two scholars Shamsul Islam and Nasir Ahmad have come out with books on the myriad such freedom fighters, to recall just a few names. Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan, Zakir Hussain, Syed Mohammad Sharfuddin Kadri, Bakht Khan, Muzzafar Ahmad, Mohammad Abdir Rahman,, Abbas Ali, Asaf Ali, Yusuf Mehrali, Maulana Mazahrul Hague.

These are just a few of the names. The movement, led by Gandhi, definitely laid the foundations where composite Indian culture and respect for all religions, others’ religion was paramount and this is what created Indian fraternity, one of the values which finds its place in the preamble of Indian Constitution.

This blaming of Education ministers who were Muslims is an add-on to the process of Islamophobia in India. So for there have been many actions of Muslim kings which are selectively presented as being bloody, now the post Independent History, where glorious contributions have been made by Muslim leaders are being used to further deepen the divisive process. We need to pay respects to builders of modern India, irrespective of their religion.

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