Hard work more powerful than Harvard: PM Modi

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Chennai, Jul 1: In a case of cluster infection, 58 of the 65 mourners who attended the funeral a Central government official, Selvam, 56, who had worked in the Ministry of Foreign Trade and who died in Coimbatore and was brought for burial at Pannavaadi near Kolathur near Mettur in Salem district, tested positive for Covid-19, after three of them initially tested positive as they neither wore face masks not observed social distancing during the funeral, sources said.

Even as Dr Vijayabaskar said AIADMK MLA from Sriperumbudur, K Palani who tested positive for Covid-19 has recovered and will be discharged from hospital in couple of days, the MIOT International Hospital in Chennai said that the State Higher Education Minister, K P Anbazhagan, who initially showed no symptoms of coronavirus, subsequently tested positive in his second sample. He was now under treatment, his condition very stable and all his vital parameters are normal, MIOT said in a statement.

In what continues to be an unrestrained run, Tamil Nadu added its biggest day-wise spike so far of 3,943 positive Covid-19 cases, while another 60 deaths due to the novel coronavirus confirmed on Tuesday took the total death toll in the state to 1,201.

Of the new positive cases, Chennai alone accounted for its highest per-day jump of 2,393 positives with the number of persons tested today across Tamil Nadu put at 30,053. The total number os Covid-19 positive cases in the State as a whole till date is racing towards the one lakh mark at 90,167.

However, these outcomes are all on anticipated lines with the ICMR's push for more aggressive testing, even if they want lockdown controls to be now more focused at the district level, and want the Chennai model to be taken to the districts.

In this backdrop, the Health minister, Dr C Vijayabaskar chaired a detailed Covid review meeting this evening through video conference with all the hospital deans and other top officials on different facets of the disease prevention and control measures and the state's overall preparedness.

Chief Minister, Mr. Edappadi K Palaniswami in a statement in Chennai assured that with the 'full lockdown' continuing in greater Chennai, parts of three neighbouring districts of Chengalpattu, Thiruvallur and Kancheepuram and parts of Madurai district till July 5, the free community kitchens for the elderly, disabled and destitute will continue to function in those places till July 5 and hygienically cooked food packets served to them.

New Delhi, Mar 19: Lawyer of Mukesh Singh, who is one of the four death row convicts in the Nirbhaya gang-rape and murder case, on Thursday mentioned a petition before the Registrar of the Supreme Court seeking an urgent hearing in the matter.

Advocate Manohar Lal Sharma, through the petition, sought directions to bring call record, documents and reports of his client through any probe agency and passed appropriate directions and measure to ensure justice in the matter.

The petition, however, has not sought a stay on the execution, which is scheduled for the morning of March 20. The petition is likely to be taken up for hearing today.

Earlier today, the apex court dismissed the curative petition of Pawan Gupta, another convict in the matter, who claimed juvenility at the time of the crime.

This comes as the four convicts -- Mukesh Singh, Akshay Singh Thakur, Vinay Sharma and Pawan Gupta -- are scheduled to be hanged at 5.30 am on March 20.

Meanwhile, several other petitions are also pending in the matter in different courts.

The case pertains to the brutal gang-rape and killing of a 23-year-old paramedical student in a moving bus on the night of December 16, 2012, by six people including a juvenile in the national capital. The woman had died at a Singapore hospital a few days later.