BJP supremo Amit Shah to visit Mangaluru on Oct 4

New Delhi, Feb 10: Former finance minister P Chidambaram on Monday tore into the Modi government's handling of the economy, saying it was close to collapse and was been attended by "very incompetent doctors."

Initiating the debate on the Union Budget for 2020-21, he said rising unemployment and falling consumption was making India poorer.

The economy, he said, is facing demand constraints and is investment starved. The economy is facing fall in consumption and rising unemployment.

"Fear and uncertainty prevails in the country," he added.

He said the chief economic advisor to the BJP government for four years, Arvind Subramanian has stated that the economy is in the ICU. But "I would say the patient has been kept out of ICU and incompetent doctors are looking at the patient," Chidambaram said.

"It is dangerous to have a patient out of ICU and being looked upon by incompetent doctors. What is the point standing around and chanting slogan 'Sab ka saath, sab ka vishwas'," he said, adding every competent doctor the Modi government could ever identify has left the country.

His said a list of such people included former RBI governor Raghurman Rajan, former CEA Arvind Subramanian, former RBI governor Urjit Patel and former NITI Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya.

"Who are your doctors, I want to know," he said, adding the government considers Congress as untouchable and doesn't think of any good about the rest of the opposition and so doesn't consult them.

Chidambaram charged that instead of putting money in the hands of people, the Modi government "put money in hands of 200 corporates" by way of corporate tax.

He said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her 160- minute budget speech did not talk of the economy and its management.

"You are living in echo chambers. You want to hear your own voice," he said.

Listing problems with the Modi government, Chidambaram said it refuses to admits in mistakes, lives in denial and has predispositions.

The demonetisation of old 1000 and 500 rupee notes, as well as the hurried implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), are "monumental blunders" that ruined the economy, he said, adding the Modi regime is predisposed to protectionism, a 'strong' rupee and is against bilateral and multilateral agreements.

"It is living in denial," he said, adding the economic growth has fallen for hereto unseen six consecutive quarters.

He wondered on the narrative Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman was trying to give after reading out a 160-minute budget speech with few pages left unread.

Her budget neither made any reference to the Economic Survey nor picked up a single idea from it, he said.

Chidambaram, who is credited with presenting a 'dream budget' more than two decades back, said the GDP growth has declined for six consecutive quarters, agriculture is growing by just 2 per cent, while consumer price inflation has risen from 1.9 per cent in January 2019 to 7.4 per cent in a matter of 11 months.

Also, food inflation is at 12.2 per cent. Bank credit is growing 8 per cent with non-food credit rising by 7-8 per cent and credit to industry by just 2.7 per cent. Credit to agriculture has declined from 18.3 per cent to 5.3 per cent and that for MSMEs from 6.7 per cent to 1.6 per cent.

Overall industrial index showed just 0.6 per cent growth. "Every major industry is either near zero or in negative zone," he said, adding thermal power plants are operating at just 55 per cent of the capacity as factories have either closed or are on the verge of closure.

"That gives you a good picture of the state of economy. You don't require MRI," he said. "You are in management for six years. How long can you blame previous managers."

He charged the government with burying unfavourable reports such as the labour survey that put unemployment at 45 -year high of 6.1 per cent at end of 2017-18. Also, consumer expenditure has falling to 3.7 per cent between 2011-12 and 2017-18.

Drilling holes in Budget numbers, he said the 2019-20 budget projected a nominal GDP growth of 12 per cent but ended with just 8.5 per cent. Fiscal deficit was targeted to be shrunk to 3.3 per cent of the GDP but ended by at 3.8 per cent and in the next fiscal it is being targeted at 3.5 per cent.

Revenue deficit was targeted at 2.3 per cent in fiscal ending March 31, 2020 but ended up at 2.4 per cent and in the next it will rise to 2.8 per cent, he said, adding capital expenditure in the next fiscal will shrink to 0.7 per cent from 1.4 per cent in the current.

Net tax revenue in the current fiscal was targeted at Rs 16.49 lakh crore but only Rs 9 lakh crore was collected in first nine months till December 2019 and "you want us to believe this will rise to Rs 15 lakh crore by March 2020," he said.

Similarly, expenditure in 2019-20 was pegged at Rs 27.86 lakh crore but only Rs 11.78 lakh crore spent during April- December and by March this is projected to rise to Rs 27 lakh crore.

"You have no money to spend... and these are masked by numbers," he said. "Numbers are not easily acceptable or believable."

Chidambaram said the government is facing shortfall in all forms of taxes - Rs 1.56 lakh crore on corporate tax, Rs 10,000 crore on personal income tax, Rs 30,000 crore on customs, Rs 52,000 crore on excise and Rs 51,000 crore on GST.

This despite "the extraordinary powers" and "all kinds of power" given to lower level tax officials, he said.

He read of list of heads under which allocation has fallen - food subsidy, agriculture, PM-Kisan, rural roads, mid-day meal scheme, ICDS, skill development, Ayushman Bharat, rural development and MGNEGA.

They say ‘history repeats itself first as a tragedy and then as a farce’. In case of India, communal violence not only keeps repeating itself, the pattern of the tragedy keeps changing every next time. Some features of the violence are constant, but they are under the wraps mostly. The same can be said about the Delhi violence (February 2020). The interpretations, the causative factors are very discernible, but those who are generally the perpetrators have a knack of shifting the blame on the victim community or those who stand for the victims.

As the carnage began presumably in the aftermath of statement of Kapil Mishra of BJP, which was given in front of a top police official, in which he threatened to get the roads emptied. The roots of violence were sown earlier. The interpretations given by the Hindu Nationalist camp is that the riot is due to the changing demographic profile of the area with Muslims increasing in number in those areas, and coming up of Shaheen Bagh which was presented was like ‘Mini Pakistan’. As per them the policies of BJP in matters of triple talaq, Article 370 and CAA, NPR, NRC has unnerved the ‘radical’ elements and so this violence.

As such before coming to the observations of the activists and scholars of communal violence in India, we can in brief say that violence, in which nearly 46 people have died, include one from police and another from intelligence. Majority victims are Muslims. The violence started right under the nose of the police and the ruling party. From the videos and other eye accounts, police not only looked the other way around, at places it assisted those attacking the innocent victims and burning and looting selective shops. Home minister, Amit Shah, was nowhere on the scene. For first three days the rioters had free run. After the paramilitary force was brought in; the violence simmered and slowly reduced in intensity. The state AAP Government, which in a way is the byproduct of RSS supported Anna Hazare movement, was busy reading Hanuman Chalisa and praying at Rajghat with eyes closed to the mayhem going in parts of Delhi.

Communal violence is the sore point of Indian society. It did begin during colonial period due to British policy of ‘Divide and Rule’. At root cause was the communal view of looking at history and pro active British acts to sow the seeds of Hindu-Muslim divide. At other level the administrative and police the British were fairly neutral. On one hand was the national movement, uniting the people and creating and strengthening the fraternal feeling among all Indians. On the other were Muslim Communalists (Muslim League) and Hindu Communalists (Hindu Mahasabha, RSS) who assisted the British goal of ‘divide and rule’ promoting hatred between the communities. After partition the first major change was the change in attitude of police and administration which started tilting against Muslims. Major studies by Dr. Asghar Ali Engineer, Paul Brass and Omar Khalidi demonstrated that anti Muslim bias is discernible in during and after the riots.

Now the partisan role of police has been visible all through. Sri Krishna Commission report brought forth this fact; as did the research of the Ex DIG of UP police Dr. V.N.Rai. Dr. Rai’s studies also concluded that no communal violence can go on beyond 24 hours unless state administration is complicit in the carnage. In one of the violence, investigation of which was done by concerned Citizen’s team (Dhule, 2013) this author observed that police itself went on to undertake the rampage against Muslims and Muslim properties.

General observation about riots is that violence sounds to be spontaneous, as the Home Minister is pointing out, but as such it is well planned act. Again the violence is orchestrated in such a way that it seems Muslims have begun the riots. Who casts the First stone? To this scholars point out that the carnage is so organized that the encircled community is forced to throw the first stone. At places the pretext is made that ‘they’ (minorities) have thrown the first stone.

The pretexts against minorities are propagated, in Gujarat violence Godhra train burning, in Kandhamal the murder of Swami Laxamannand and now Shaheen bagh! The Hindu Muslim violence began as riots. But it is no more a riot, two sides are not involved. It is plain and simple anti Minority violence, in which some from the majority are also the victims.

This violence is possible as the ‘Hate against this minority’ is now more or less structural. The deeper Hate against Muslims and partly against Christians; has been cultivated since long and Hindu nationalist politics, right from its Shakhas to the social media have been put to use for spreading Hatred. The prevalent deeper hate has been supplanted this time by multiple utterances from BJP leaders, Modi (Can be recognized by clothes), Shah (press EVM machine button so hard that current is felt in Shaheen Bagh), Anurag Thakur (Goli (bullet) Maro) Yogi Aditya Nath (If Boli (Words)Do not work Goli will) and Parvesh Varma (They will be out to rape).

The incidental observation of the whole tragedy is the coming to surface of true colors of AAP, which not only kept mum as the carnage was peaking but also went on to praise the role of police in the whole episode. With Delhi carnage “Goli Maro” seems to be becoming the central slogan of Hindu nationalists. Delhi’s this violence has been the first one in which those getting killed are more due to bullets than by swords or knifes! Leader’s slogans do not go in vain! Courts the protectors of our Constitution seem to be of little help as if one of them like Murlidhar Rao gives the verdict to file against hate mongers, he is immediately transferred.

And lastly let’s recall the academic study of Yale University. It concludes; BJP gains in electoral strength after every riot’. In India the grip of communalism is increasing frighteningly. Efforts are needed to combat Hate and Hate mongers.