Hindustan a country of Hindus but it doesn't exclude others: RSS chief

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Bengaluru, Jun 22: Senior Congress leader BK Hariprasad and BJP’s MTB Nagaraj, one of the defectors who helped the saffron party come to power in Karnataka, were unanimously elected to the Legislative Council along with five others on Monday. 

All seven were declared as “duly elected” by Legislative Assembly Secretary MK Vishalakshi, the returning officer for the biennial election to the Legislative Council. 

Hariprasad and Naseer Ahmed of the Congress, Nagaraj, R Shankar, Prathap Simha Nayak and Sunil Vallyapur of the BJP and Govinda Raju of the JD(S) are now MLCs. 

While Ahmed was an incumbent who will get another term, the six others will replace Jayamma, MC Venugopal, NS Bore Raju, HM Revanna and TA Sharavana and DU Mallikarjuna whose term ends June 30. 

While an election was scheduled June 29, it was not necessary as only seven candidates were in the fray for the seven seats on Monday, which was the last date for withdrawal of nominations. The nominations of A Yadavanahalli PC Krishnegowda and Mandikkal Nagaraja were rejected. 

With their rejection as MLCs, Nagaraj and Shankar - who jumped ship to the BJP last year - will now look to become ministers in Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa’s Cabinet. Both Nagaraj and Shankar were ministers when they resigned and defected from the Congress-JD(S) coalition. While Nagaraj lost the December 2019 bypolls, Shankar did not contest. 

Nagaraj, Shankar and Vallyapure were Yediyurappa’s picks for the Council, whereas Nayak is said to have been backed by BJP state president Nalin Kumar Kateel. 

There were many aspirants in the Congress for the Council berths, but Hariprasad and Ahmed were picked, given their experience. Hariprasad is widely believed to counter Siddaramaiah, who leads the party in the Assembly. 

Raju of the JD(S) runs a poultry business in Kolar and the choice of a fresh face is seen as the party leadership steering clear of any trouble as there were many asking for the ticket. 

Bengaluru, Jun 16: Former prime minister H D Deve Gowda on Tuesday termed as 'disturbing' the violent clash between Indian and Chinese troops in Galwan Valley and said the government should offer a clearer picture to the nation on the border issue.

He sought to know as to how Indian soldiers lost their lives during a de-escalation process and said Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh should come out with a clearer picture.

"Reports coming from #GalwanValley are disturbing. Why did our soldiers lose their lives during a de-escalation process? In national interest, the PM and RM should offer a clearer picture to the nation on the border issue with the Chinese. #LADAKHSTANDOFF," Gowda tweeted. An Indian Army officer and two soldiers were killed during the confrontation with Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh on Monday night, the first such incident in the last 45 years that reflected massive escalation in the five- week border row.

The Army said India lost an officer and two soldiers during the violent face-off, while there were casualties on the Chinese side as well.