Shut all madrasas in India; they promote terrorism: Shia leader tells PM

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Bengaluru, Mar 16: Stepping up measures to curb spread of coronavirus in the state, the Karnataka government would start thermal screening of visitors at various places including the vidhana soudha, high court, secretariat, and city civil courts, from Tuesday.

In view of coronavirus scare, screening of visitors has already begun at Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa's residence at Dollar's Colony in the city.

A medical team has been deployed for the purpose, sources close to the CM told PTI. Medical screening of passengers arriving at the Kempegowda International Airport here was underway. So far seven people have been tested positive in the state while one of them died due to COVID-19 in Kalaburagi.

The Department of Health and Family Welfare said the procurement of equipment such as scanners would be completed by Monday.

"The procurement of scanners, other supplies, deputation of staff nurses and trainingshall be held and completed on March 16, Monday itself on war footing basissetting aside other works," Commissioner of Health and Family Welfare department, Pankaj Kumar Pandey said in his order to district level health officers.

The KarnatakaState Drugs Logistics and Warehousing Society (KSDLWS) would procure and give the thermal scanners to the district health and family welfare officers of Bengaluru Urban, Kalaburagi, Dharwad, it said. Sufficient virus filtering N95 masks, handgloves and sanitisers would also be provided to the officers, it added.

Veteran journalist P. Sainath has said that the nation is in a crisis. And this crisis is not limited to just the rural area. It has become a national crisis at various areas such as agriculture, education, economy, job creation etc.

He was delivering the endowment lecture on the topic ‘Indian democracy at the post-liberalization and post-truth era’ at Media Manthan 2020 organized by the PG department of journalism and mass communication at St Aloysius College (Autonomous). 

Mr Sainath said that the many policies adopted in the 90s led to India becoming unusually unequal. Referring to the speech Ambedkar had made at the Constituent Assembly while handing over the draft of the Constitution, Mr Sainath said, “Ambedkar had warned about the weakness of Indian democracy that liberty without equality allows the supremacy of a few over the multitude. Liberty, equality and fraternity must be kept together as we cannot have one without the other.” 

Mr Sainath stated that the agrarian crisis was no longer about the loss of productivity, employment or about farmer suicide; it was a societal, civilizational crisis. Commenting on the lopsided policies such as cow-slaughter ban, he explained how cow slaughter ban had adversely affected many industries due to their interdependency. While Muslims who slaughtered cows were rendered helpless, the cattle traders who were mostly OBCs lost their earnings as the cattle prices crashed. An important industry like Kolhapur sandals industry in Maharashtra went bankrupt as a result of the cow slaughter ban in Maharashtra. He said the policymakers had no idea how the rural industries were interconnected. Demonetisation too devastated the rural economy as 98 percent of rural transactions happen through cash. 

Mr Sainath also spoke about the crisis of inequality which affects the Dalits and the Adivasis far more than anyone else as 90 percent of the rural households take home less than Rs 10,000/- per month. “Women are yet another group whose labour is never counted in the gross domestic product. Women and girls globally do unpaid work which amounts to about 12.5 billion working hours per year. Monetarily speaking, this is worth 10.8 trillion dollars,” Mr Sainath added. 

Speaking about the crisis of jobs Mr Sainath said that major companies were laying off employees just to create more profits for the investors and the adoption of artificial intelligence in the industry would further destroy millions of jobs.

Rector of St Aloysius College Institutions Fr Dionysius Vaz SJ, Principal Dr (Fr) Praveen Martis SJ, HOD of Journalism and Mass Communication department Dr (Fr) Melwyn Pinto SJ were present.

‘Veerappan and Vijay Mallya’s business models are interesting!’

Addressing the gathering during his endowment lecture on Friday, Mr Sainath made an interesting comment on the so called ‘revenue model’. “Whenever I visit IIMs and IITs for lectures on my PARI project, the students there ask me what my revenue model for my project is. I tell them that I do not have a revenue model. In fact, journalism does not begin with a revenue model. Gandhiji, Ambedkar, Bhagat Singh were all great journalists. But they did not have a revenue model,” Mr Sainath said.

On a lighter note, he said that the best revenue model that he liked was that of forest brigand Veerappan and liquor baron Vijay Mallya. “Veerappan ruled the forest for forty years and from the top ministers to the villagers he could dictate terms and liver royally. Similarly, Mallya’s revenue model was to steal the banks and run away abroad and live like a king,” Mr Sainath added.

Journalism is not and can never be a business. It is a calling, he opined. While newspaper can be a business, television can be a business, journalism per se cannot be reduced to a business. “Unfortunately today, journalists are recruited on a contract basis and they have no bargaining power; and there are no unions to fight for their cause. Hence, they are at the mercy of the corporate media houses for their survival and are made to write stories that cannot be called journalism,” Mr Sainath said.

Answering a question as to the pressures he faced as a journalist, he said that external pressures from the government or others could be very well handled. It is the internal pressures from once own media house that journalists find it difficult to manage.