Amit Shah says Congress 'can't preserve democracy'

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Noida, May 6: Not having Aarogya Setu app on smartphone while out in public in Noida or Greater Noida will be considered a violaton of lockdown rules and the person will be punished.

Action will also be taken against people going outdoors without a face mask or spitting in public places, Gautam Buddh Nagar police said, news agency reported.

Aarogya Setu is a mobile application developed by the central government to connect essential health services with the people to fight Covid-19.

The app is aimed at augmenting the initiatives of the Centre, particularly the Department of Health, in proactively reaching out to and informing the users of the app regarding risks, best practices and relevant advisories pertaining to the containment of Covid-19.

"If smartphone users do not have the 'Aarogya Setu' app installed on their mobile phones, then that will be punishable and considered a violation of the lockdown directions," Additional Deputy Commissioner of Police, Law and Order, Ashutosh Dwivedi said.

The district police had on Sunday announced extending the Criminal Procedure Code section 144, which bars assembly of four or more people, till May 17, as the central government extended the nationwide lockdown by another two weeks in a bid to check the spread of the virus.

"Spitting in public places will attract punishment along with a fine. Not wearing a face mask in public places or offices will also be a punishable offence.

During the lockdown period, political, social, religious, sports gatherings as well as protest marches and rallies will remain banned across Noida and Greater Noida, the official said in the order.

"The central government has extended the lockdown till May 17 in view of the coronavirus pandemic. Gautam Buddh Nagar has been identified as 'red zone' and hotspots have been identified here. During this duration, all guidelines of the lockdown are to be followed," he said.

Gautam Buddh Nagar, which falls in the 'Red Zone', has 34 containment zones and has recorded 179 positive cases of coronavirus so far, with 102 of these patients being cured and discharged from hospitals, according to official figures.

Thiruvananthapuram, Jun 24: Kerala on Tuesday was among those honoured for tackling the Covid-19 pandemic when the United Nations celebrated the Public Service Day.

The function, held on a virtual platform, saw the participation of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and other top UN dignitaries who applauded all the leaders which included state Health Minister K.K. Shailaja for effectively tackling Covid-19.

Speaking on the occasion, Shailaja noted that the experiences of tackling Nipah virus and the two floods - 2018 and 2019 - where the health sector played a crucial role, all helped in tackling Covid-19 timely.

"Right from the time when Covid cases got reported in Wuhan, Kerala got into the track of the WHO and followed every standard operating protocols and international norms and hence, we have been able to keep the contact spread rate to below 12.5 per cent and the mortality rate to 0.6 per cent," she said.