Shambhulal Regar, who lynched Muslim man, all set to contest 2019 polls

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

New Delhi, April 3: The Government on Thursday launched a mobile app developed in public-private partnership as part of efforts to contain the spread of coronavirus.

"The app, called 'AarogyaSetu' will enable people to assess themselves the risk for their catching the coronavirus infection," an official release said.

It said that the app will calculate this based on their interaction with others, using cutting edge Bluetooth technology, algorithms and artificial intelligence.

"Once installed in a smartphone through an easy and user-friendly process, the app detects other devices with AarogyaSetu installed that come in the proximity of that phone. The app can then calculate the risk of infection based on sophisticated parameters," the release said.

It said that the app will help the government take necessary timely steps for assessing risk of spread of COVID-19 infection and ensuring isolation where required.

"The app's design ensures privacy. The personal data collected by the app is encrypted using state-of-the-art technology and stays secure on the phone till it is needed for facilitating medical intervention," the release said.

It said the app is available in 11 languages and has highly scalable architecture.

"This app is a unique example of the nation's young talent coming together and pooling resources and efforts to respond to a global crisis. It is at once a bridge between public and private sectors, digital technology and health services delivery," the release said.

New Delhi, Apr 24: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has termed the government decision to freeze Dearness Allowance of Central government employees for a year as "insensitive and inhuman."

The former Congress President in a tweet said: "Lakhs and crores are being spent on the Bullet Train and New Delhi's Central Vista which should have been suspended, but the government has deducted DA of Central government employees and pensioners... It is insensitive and inhuman."

"The tragic part is that by deducting this amount from January 1, 2020 up to 30th June, 2021 for a period of 1.5 years, the government of India proceeds to deduct almost Rs 38 thousand crore from the income of these middle class government employees and pensioners, who rely completely on the pay and pensions that they receive," said Randeep Surjewala, chief spokesperson of Congress.

There are about 50 lakh such serving government employees and about 62 lakh pensioners.

"Even more tragic and objectionable is the fact that the government of India has not even spared our armed forces. The government has deducted Rs 11 thousand crore of the 15 lakh serving armed forces personnel and nearly 26 lakh military pensioners. What is their fault? They are serving the nation in times of all types of crises," said Surjewala.

The Congress alleged that the government did not spare the savings scheme.

Instead of curbing the wasteful expenditure, the government has been constantly hitting at the income of government employees and the middle class, it added.