No compromise on Savarkar: Shiv Sena's stern message to ally Congress

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

New Delhi, Jun 19: Petrol price on Friday was hiked by 56 paise per litre and diesel by 63 paise a litre, taking the cumulative increase in rates to Rs 7.11 and Rs 7.67 per litre respectively in less than two weeks.

Petrol price in Delhi was hiked to Rs 78.37 per litre from Rs 77.81, while diesel rates were increased to Rs 77.06 a litre from Rs 76.43, according to a price notification of state oil marketing companies.

Rates have been increased across the country and vary from state to state depending on the incidence of local sales tax or VAT.

This is the 13th daily increase in rates in a row since oil companies on June 7 restarted revising prices in line with costs, after ending an 82-day hiatus in rate revision.

In 13 hikes, petrol price has gone up by Rs 7.11 per litre and diesel by Rs 7.67 a litre.

The freeze in rates was imposed in mid-March soon after the government hiked excise duty on petrol and diesel to shore up additional finances.

Oil PSUs Indian Oil Corp (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL) instead of passing on the excise duty hikes to customers adjusted them against the fall in the retail rates that was warranted because of fall in international oil prices to two decade low.

International oil prices have since rebounded and oil firms are now adjusting retail rates in line with them.

New Delhi, April 7: The government continued to take steps to contain the spread of coronavirus including a strategy of cluster containment as the cases continued to rise and Tuesday saw single-day largest jump of 722 positive cases.

The total number of positive cases reached 4,789 on Tuesday, the 14th day of lockdown.

According to the latest update of the Health Ministry, there are 4,312 active cases, 352 persons have been cured or discharged (one migrated) and 124 have died.

Maharashtra has the largest number of positive cases at 868 and also accounts for the largest number of deaths at 48. Tamil Nadu has 621 confirmed cases.

Thirteen persons have died in Madhya Pradesh and the same number in Gujarat.
The 21-day lockdown was announced on March 24 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

At the regular media briefing at 4 pm, Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secretary in the Health Ministry, said that the government is adopting a strategy for cluster containment.

"This strategy is producing positive results, especially in Agra, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Pathanamthitta, Bhilwara and East Delhi," he said.

Aggarwal said that a recent study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has shown that a person infected with coronavirus can infect 406 others in just 30 days if he does not follow the lockdown and social distancing norms.

He said no decision has been taken on extending the lockdown and urged against any speculation.

He said latest technology was being used for management of COVID-19 and there was real-time tracking of ambulances.

The official said the dedicated facilities for COVID-19 are divided into three parts -- COVID Care Centre, Dedicated COVID Health Centre and Dedicated COVID Hospitals.

He said that COVID Care Centres were for treating mild, very mild and likely to be COVID-19 patients. Hostels, hotels, school, and stadium can be used for this. "We have asked states to map it with COVID Care Hospitals and COVID Health Centre so that patients can be shifted if needed," he said.

The official said that COVID Health Centres were for treating COVID-19 patients of clinically moderate level of seriousness. "For this, fully functional hospitals will be used. A dedicated block of a fully functional hospital can also be used for this. The hospitals must have beds with oxygen support," he said.

Aggarwal said that dedicated COVID Hospitals were meant for severe and critical cases and these must be fully-equipped with ICUs and ventilators.
New coronavirus cases were reported on Tuesday from several states including Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu.

The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has issued an advisory about containing coronavirus in national parks, sanctuaries and tiger reserves in view of the spread of COVID-19 and a report about tiger being infected in New York. The Central Zoo Authority has also advised zoos in India to remain on high alert.

Here's a quick read on the COVID-19 related updates

1. The Indian Railways has prepared 40,000 isolation beds in 2,500 coaches and this work is ongoing in 133 locations across the country.

2. Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said he was willing to extend the lockdown in the state after the completion of 21-day period to save lives.

3. The government is monitoring the movement of pharmaceuticals closely and the movement of pharmaceuticals through trucks has stabilised in the country.

4. Under the 'Lifeline Udan' initiative, 152 flights have transported over 200 tonnes of cargo till April 6.

5. According to ICMR, testing of 1,07,006 people has been carried out till date and 136 government labs and 59 private labs are conducting tests in the country.

6. The Home Ministry said that the status of essential goods and services was by and large satisfactory in the country. Home Minister Amit Shah has issued directives to the states to ensure there is no hoarding or black marketing in any corner of the country.

7. The number of corona positive cases in Uttar Pradesh has reached 314. Of these, 168 patients are connected to Tablighi Jamaat, state Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said on Tuesday.

8. The government has lifted restrictions on export of 24 pharmaceutical ingredients and medicines made from them.

9. Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said the Group of Ministers had "an extensive discussion on the prevailing situation post the lockdown" in the country. They also appreciated the Cabinet's decision to cut MP's salary for a year.

10. Central Zoo Authority has advised zoos in the country to remain on highest alertness, watch animals on 24X7 basis, using CCTV for any abnormal behavior or symptoms.