D-Day guide: Third straight RBI rate cut seen as economy cools

Agencies
June 6, 2019

Jun 6: The Reserve Bank of India is likely to cement its position as Asia’s most dovish central bank with a third straight interest-rate cut Thursday.

The six-member monetary policy committee led by Governor Shaktikanta Das will reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 5.75 per cent on Thursday, say 31 of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, while three are penciling in a 50 basis points cut. The RBI may also switch its stance to accommodative from neutral, given that expectations are growing for the Federal Reserve to slash rates this year.

Inflation that’s stayed close to the lower end of RBI’s 2-6 per cent band for six months has given policy makers room to support economic growth. India is among central banks across Asia shifting to looser monetary policy to boost their economies amid risks from the US-China trade war. Philippines, Malaysia and New Zealand eased last month, while Australia cut interest rates this week for the first time in almost three years.

The policy decision will be announced at 11:45 a.m. in Mumbai, followed by a press conference 15 minutes later by Das. Here’s a look at what else to watch out for in the decision that comes weeks before the new government’s annual budget on July 5:

Subdued Growth

Gross domestic product growth slowed to a five-year low of 5.8 per cent in the first three months of the year. Investment has been subdued and early indicators from auto sales to air travel show consumption -- which contributes more than 60 per cent to GDP -- has waned amid a crisis in the shadow banking sector that’s curbed lending.

At its last policy meeting, the central bank cut its GDP forecast for the current fiscal year to 7.2 per cent from 7.4 per cent. Still, the reading depends on how the crucial monsoon season pans out. For now, the southwest monsoon, which waters more than half of India’s farmland between June and September, is expected to bring normal rainfall.

Economists have already trimmed GDP forecasts to 7.1 per cent for fiscal 2020 in the latest Bloomberg survey from 7.2 per cent previously.

“The muted growth seals the case for more rate cuts,” said Upasna Bhardwaj, an economist at Kotak Mahindra BankNSE -0.49 % Ltd. in Mumbai. “We maintain our expectation of 25 basis point rate cuts in June and August —- though an outside chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut in June itself could build up.”

Benign Inflation

With growth slowing and inflation expected to remain below the RBI’s 4 per cent medium-term target in 2019, the central bank has room to cut. Underlying inflation, which strips out volatile fuel and food prices, has eased since November and economists expect it to move toward the headline rate in the coming months.

Policy makers might choose to gloss over a recent uptick in food costs, given record grain stocks and declining oil prices.

Policy Stance

Apart from its likely rate cut, the RBI will have to tackle issues surrounding sluggish monetary policy transmission. Despite lowering rates by 50 basis points this year, bank lending costs have been rather sticky amid tighter liquidity. Those conditions, though, are showing nascent signs of easing.

“We think that rate cuts need to be accompanied by sustained injections of durable liquidity into the economy,” said Kapil Gupta, an economist at Edelweiss Securities Ltd. in Mumbai. “We also see a good chance of the policy stance shifting to accommodative/dovish from neutral currently.”

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Agencies
June 2,2020

Lucknow, Jun 2: Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati on Tuesday said protests in the US after the death of George Floyd, an African-American man, is a clear message to the world that a common man's life has value.

She said this is also guaranteed by the India Constitution, but the governments don't follow it, resulting in the current plight of migrants workers.

Floyd, a 46-year-old restaurant worker from Houston, died in Minneapolis on Monday after a white police officer pinned him to the ground. Video footage showed the officer kneeling on Floyd's neck as he gasped for breath, sparking widespread protests across the US.

"Floyd's killing by police and the 'Black lives matter' agitation in the US have given a clear message to the world that a common man's life has value and it should not be taken for granted," Mayawati said in a tweet in Hindi.

"India's constitution guarantees independence, security, self-respect and pride and governments should give special attention to it. If it was followed, crores of migrants labourers would not have to witness such bad days," she added.

She also demanded better coordination between states to check the spread of coronavirus and said Centre should intervene.

"While coronavirus patients are rising, there is lack of coordination between states and with the Centre, and allegation and counter-allegations are going on and sealing of state borders is unjustified and it is weakening the fight against the virus.  The Centre should intervene," she said in a separate tweet.

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News Network
March 3,2020

Chennai, Mar 3: The Madras High Court has ruled that if a working woman gives birth to a child in the second delivery after twins in the first, she is not entitled to maternity benefits as it should be treated as third child.

"As per existing rules, a woman can avail such benefits only for her first two deliveries. Even otherwise it is debatable as to whether the delivery is not a second delivery but a third one, in as much as ordinarily when twins are born they are delivered one after another, and their age and their inter-se elderly status is also determined by virtue of the gap of time between their arrivals, which amounts to two deliveries and not one simultaneous act," the court said.

The first bench, comprising Chief Justice A P Sahi and Justice Subramonium Prasad stated this while allowing the appeal from Ministry of Home Affairs.

It set aside the order June 18 2019 order of a single Judge, who extended 180 days of maternity leave and other benefits to a woman member of the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) under the rules governing the Tamil Nadu government servants.

The issue pertains to an appeal moved by the ministry, which contended that the leave claim is by a member of CISF to whom the maternity rules of Tamil Nadu would not apply.

She would be covered by the maternity benefits as provided under the Central Civil Services (Leave) Rules, the ministry said.

When the appeal came up for hearing, the bench said it found that a second delivery, which, in the present case, resulted in a third child, cannot be interpreted so as to add to the mathematical precision that is defined in the rules.

The admissibility of benefits would be limited if the claimant has not more than two children, the bench said "This fact therefore changes the entire nature of the relief which is sought for by the woman petitioner, which aspect has been completely overlooked by the single judge", the bench said.

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News Network
May 21,2020

London, May 21: Working mothers in Europe and the United States are taking on most of the extra housework and childcare created by lockdown - and many are struggling to cope, a survey showed on Thursday.

Women with children now spend an average 65 hours a week on the unpaid chores - nearly a third more than fathers - according to the Boston Consulting Group, which questioned parents in five countries.

"Women have been doing too much household work for too long, and this crisis is pushing them to a point that's simply unsustainable," Rachel Thomas, of U.S.-based women's rights group LeanIn.Org, said in response to the data.

"We need a major culture shift in our homes and in our companies ... We should use this moment to build a better way to work and live – one that's fair for everybody."

Researchers say fallout from the pandemic weighs on women in a host of ways, be it in rising domestic violence or in lower wages, as some women cut paid work to take on the new duties.

With lockdowns shutting schools and keeping citizens at home, creating a mountain of domestic work, public campaigns from Georgia to Mexico have urged men to do their fair share.

But women, who on average already do more at home than men, are now shouldering most of the new coronavirus burden, too, said the survey of more than 3,000 working parents in the United States, Britain, Italy, Germany and France.

Women's unpaid hours at home have nearly doubled to 65 hours a week, said the survey, against 50 logged by an average father.

British women are more likely to support others in the COVID-19 pandemic and are finding it harder to stay positive, according to separate analysis released this week by polling firm Ipsos MORI and feminist organisation The Fawcett Society.

It is "no surprise" to see women do more childcare and housekeeping on top of their day jobs, Jacqui Hunt of women's rights group Equality Now, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

However, there are "hopeful signs" that men in West Africa are sharing more childcare during the pandemic in a shift in social norms, found a small rapid analysis by humanitarian organisation CARE International released on Wednesday.

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