The deep strategy behind the stupid ‘mytho-scientific’ statements of BJP leaders

The dollar's dominance will slowly melt away over the coming year on weakening global demand and a sombre U.S. economic outlook, according to a Reuters poll of currency forecasters whose views depend on there being no second coronavirus shock.

Despite fears a surge in new Covid-19 cases would delay economies reopening and stymie a tentative recovery, world stocks have rallied - with the S&P 500 finishing higher in June, marking its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the height of the technology boom in 1998.

Caught between bets in favour of riskier investments, weak U.S. economic prospects as well as an easing in the thirst for dollars after the Federal Reserve flooded markets with liquidity, the greenback fell nearly 1.0 per cent last month. It was its worst monthly performance since December.

While there was a dire prognosis from the top U.S. medical expert on the coronavirus' spread, the June 25-July 1 poll of over 70 analysts showed weak dollar projections as Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday reiterated the economic outlook for the world's largest economy was uncertain.

"The dollar rises in two instances: when you see risk off or when there is a situation where the U.S. is leading the global recovery, and we don't think that's going to be the case anytime soon," said Gavin Friend, senior FX strategist at NAB Group in London.

"The U.S. is playing fast and loose with the virus, and chronologically they're behind the rest of the world."

Currency speculators, who had built up trades against the dollar to the highest in two years during May, increased their out-of-favour dollar bets further last week, the latest positioning data showed.

About 80 per cent of analysts, 53 of 66, said the likely path for the dollar over the next six months was to trade around current levels, alternating between slight gains and losses in a range. That suggests the greenback may be at a crucial crossroad as more currency strategists have turned bearish.

But more than 90 per cent, or 63 of 68, said a second shock from the pandemic would push the dollar higher. Five said it would push the U.S. currency lower.

Much will also depend on debt servicing and repayments by Asian, European and other international borrowers in U.S. dollars.

While an early shortage of dollars in March from the pandemic's first shock pushed the Fed to open currency swap lines with major central banks, international funding strains have eased significantly since. In recent weeks, usage of the facility has reduced dramatically.

That trend is expected to continue over the next six months with major central banks' usage of swap lines to "stay around current levels", according to 32 of 46 analysts. While 13 predicted a sharp drop, only one respondent said use of them would "rise sharply".

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other major currencies, has slipped over 5 per cent since touching a more than three-year high in March.

When asked which currencies would perform better against the dollar by end-December, a touch over half of 49 respondents said major developed market ones, with the remaining almost split between commodity-linked and emerging market currencies.

"The dollar is so overvalued, and has been overvalued for a long time, it's time now for it to come back down again, as we head towards the (U.S.) election," added NAB's Friend.

Over the last quarter, the euro has staged a 1.8 per cent comeback after falling by a similar margin during the first three months of the year. For the month of June, the euro was up 1.2 per cent against the dollar.

The single currency was now expected to gain about 2.5 per cent to trade at $1.15 in a year from around $1.12 on Wednesday, slightly stronger than $1.14 predicted last month. While those findings are similar to what analysts have been predicting for nearly two years, there was a clear shift in their outlook for the euro, with the range of forecasts showing higher highs and higher lows from last month.

"In comparison to even a month or two ago, the outlook in Europe has improved significantly," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG.

"I think that makes the euro look relatively more attractive and cheap against the likes of the dollar. We're not arguing strongly for the euro to surge higher, we're just saying, after the weakness we have seen in recent years, there is the potential for that weakness to start to reverse."

Bengaluru, Jan 29: Ramesh Jarkiholi on Tuesday demanded that he and all the newly elected MLAs, who won the bypolls after defecting from the Congress and JD(S), be inducted into the cabinet — likely on January 31 — as promised by chief minister BS Yediyurappa.

"We are hoping all 11 MLAs will be made ministers," Jarkiholi said. "That is what the BJP and the CM promised us and we hope they will keep their promise." This is the first time Jarkiholi has spoken in public on cabinet berths, ever since reports surfaced of the party high command not being in favour of inducting all the turncoats into the council of ministers.

Jarkiholi also said fellow rebel AH Vishwanath should be given a ministerial berth.

Vishwanath, formerly of the JD(S), had lost the bypolls. Jarkiholi said the rebellion would not have succeeded had it not been for Vishwanath.

"Those of us who rebelled against the JD(S)-Congress coalition government got a shot in the arm when Vishwanath supported us," Jarkiholi said. "It is imperative that we support him," he said, even as he sought to distance himself from comments made by newly-elected MLAs ST Somashekar and D Sudhakar, who said Vishwanath cannot demand a ministerial post.

Meanwhile, the BJP issued another deadline — January 31 — to expand the cabinet. "In all likelihood, cabinet expansion will take place on Friday," said an aspirant for a berth. But several BJP functionaries are skeptical of meeting the new deadline.

"Till now, the CM has not been given the green signal by the high command. This is all I can say," said a senior minister in Yediyurappa’s cabinet, while insisting he wouldn’t be surprised if the exercise was postponed till the Delhi elections are over.

Former minister and independent R Shankar, who along with Mahesh Kumatalli and Shrimant Patil accompanied Jarkiholi to a trip to Nanjangud, Mysuru district, has upped the pressure on Yediyurappa to field him in the bypoll to the lone vacant council seat. "I am confident the CM and the BJP will honour promises made to me," Shankar said.

The former minister had joined the BJP during the rebellion, but was not given a ticket to contest the bypolls.

In Chikkamagaluru, deputy chief minister Govind M Karjol insisted he is prepared to step down if needed to enable new entrants into the cabinet. "I’m a disciplined solider of the party. If the BJP directs me to submit my resignation, I will do so and return my official car and take a bus to Bengaluru," Karjol said. He said anyone who doesn’t respect the party line will not grow. "It is imperative to toe the party line," he said.

New Delhi, Jan 25: The latest edition of the Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary features 26 new Indian English words, including Aadhaar, chawl, dabba, hartal and shaadi.

The 10th edition of the dictionary, which was launched on Friday, has 384 Indian English words and incorporates over 1,000 new words such as chatbot, fake news and microplastic.

The dictionary focuses on language change and its evolution through the years, and has ensured that the language and examples used in the new edition are relevant and up to date with the times, Oxford University Press (OUP) said.

The new edition comes with interactive online support through the Oxford Learner's Dictionaries website and an app. The website includes advanced features such as audio-video tutorials, video walkthroughs, self-study activities and enhanced iWriter and iSpeaker tools.

"This edition has 26 new Indian English words of which 22 figure in the printed dictionary. The other four are in the digital version," said Fathima Dada, Managing Director (Education Division) at OUP.

Some of other new Indian words in the dictionary are auntie (while aunty already figures in the English dictionary, auntie is an Indianism), bus stand, deemed university, FIR, non-veg, redressal, tempo, tube light, veg and videograph.

The four new Indian English words in the online version of the dictionary are current (for electricity), looter, looting and upazila (one of the areas that a district is divided into for administration purposes).

According to OUP, the new edition provides better, more accurate and understandable definitions with examples, usage notes and additional resources to help the learner use the right word in the right context.

"Prevalence and common usage are the main criteria for enlisting new words. We scan the globe for words which are often used by people while speaking English. Then these words go through a rigorous testing process," Dada said.

"As OUP is the custodian of English language globally, these words have to go through its processes," she told PTI.

The Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary, she said, has been reinventing itself for nearly eight decades, anticipating the growing learning requirements of learners.

"The 10th edition also is equipped with a strong digital support system, including an app," she said.

It is equipped with several digital tools. With iSpeaker, learners can get help preparing for speaking exams and presentations. With iWriter, learners can plan, write and review their written work. Text Checker allows the teacher to check any text against the Oxford 3000, 5000, and OPAL (Oxford Phrasal Academic Lexicon) written word list.

Resources accessible through online premium access include lesson plans, worksheets, video walkthroughs, and classroom and self-study activities. With the OALD app one can find 86,000 words, 95,000 phrases, 112,000 meanings and 237,000 examples.

The dictionary, which spans 77 years, was originally published in Japan in 1942 and was first brought out by OUP in 1948. The learner's dictionary is based on the original values of its creator, Albert Sydney Hornby, whose aim was to help language learners worldwide understand the meaning of English words.