Don’t blame minority Brahmins for past ‘tragedies’: Pejawar seer

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Bengaluru, May 2: JDS leader and former Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy accused the Mandya district administration of the surge in COVID-19 cases in the district and not quarantining 7,000 labourers who arrived here from Mumbai.

"As we know that 16,000 labourers from Mandya were working in Mumbai, out of which 7,000 people have arrived in the district. However, none of them was quarantined properly which is a violation of COVID-19 lockdown," Kumaraswamy told reporters here on Friday.

He claimed the district administration has shown "gross negligence" in their duty in following the procedure of COVID-19 as "one COVID-19 patient's dead body which was brought here from Mumbai has led to more cases in the district and those who accompanied the body have also tested positive for the virus."

Kumaraswamy appealed to the state government to strictly maintain lockdown norms and do not allow any relaxations in view of the rise in COVID-19 cases, stating that "any kind of relaxation could lead to a huge disaster."

Bengaluru, Mar 6: The Karnataka Congress on Thursday termed the budget for fiscal 2020-21 presented by the B.S. Yediyurappa government as the "weakest ever state budget".

"This is the weakest budget ever that our state has had. There is no clear cut provision in the budget for industrial growth or to generate jobs. No clarity on department wise allocation," tweeted Congress.

Congress leader Dinesh Gundu Rao said he did not expect such a bad budget which has discriminated on agriculture and education sectors.

"The state budget does not mention major irrigation projects like Kaveri valley and Krishna. No farmers loan waiver," noted Rao.

The opposition party has criticised the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that the potential of Karnataka was not realized to generate revenue through this budget.

Assailing the additional tax on petrol and diesel, Congress said the development will lead to price rise and is a huge disappointment.

"People are reeling under high inflation and reduction in income. BJP has rubbed salt into injury by further increasing prices and providing no relief to common man," said the party.

Bhalki MLA and Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee working president Eshwar Bhimanna Khandre pointed out that the Centre gave the state only Rs 1,869 crore, despite a loss of Rs 35,160 crore in 2019.

Calling stamp duty reduction for housing within Rs 20 lakhs as an insult to people, Congress questioned the Chief Minister and BJP to first show where in Bengaluru does one get housing within Rs 20 lakh.

"This is mockery of people. No mention or allotment to universal housing programme that Congress government had delivered," claimed Congress.

Focusing on Karnataka capital Bengaluru, Congress slammed the BJP saying no proper revenue policy has been mooted.

"Last mile connectivity issue not addressed. Drinking water issue is not mentioned. No mention of peripheral ring road. No mention of Akrama-Sakrama and no thought process has gone in while planning Bengaluru," tweeted the party.

The party said Yediyurappa has admitted that there is a financial crisis in his budget speech.

"He admits Rs 8,883 crore aid has been cut, around Rs 11,000 crore state share from Centre has been cut. No additional allocation for flood relief. What is stopping him and 25 members of Parliament to question the centre," observed Congress.

Former chief minister Siddaramaiah mocked Yediyurappa that though he calls himself a farmer''s son, he delivered an anti-farmer budget.

"No one will benefit from this budget. A complete failure to boost the economy, to realize inclusive development and to improve standard of living," he tweeted.