Earthquakes unveil deep rock structure under East Asia

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Thrissur, May 9: Five people were arrested for allegedly conducting congregational prayers at a mosque here in violationofthe COVID-19 lockdown norms.

A case was registered against five people for conducting evening prayers on Friday, police said.

We received information that prayers were being conducted in the mosque, they said adding they were held at Eriyad Masjidul Bilal mosque here.

On Friday, four people, including the president of a local temple trust, were arrested for allegedly conducting a religious recitation in a temple here in violation of lockdown restrictions.

Though lockdown conditions have been eased in accordance with the Centre's guidelines, public gatherings, including functions, weddings, political events and religious gatherings were not allowed.

As the Indian workforce navigates a shrinking job market in lockdown times, two in five professionals believe that the number of jobs and scheduled interviews will decrease in the next two weeks, a new LinkedIn survey said on Tuesday.

The news comes as bittersweet for Indian professionals as more than one in three stated they will now spend more time working on their resumes and preparing for interviews.

Professionals from healthcare, manufacturing and corporate service industries anticipate a decrease in personal spending and personal investments in the next six months, according to the findings of the fortnightly LinkedIn Workforce Confidence Index based on responses from 2,903 professionals in the country.

This findings showed that while India's overall confidence remains steady, the country's confidence in jobs is beginning to trend downward.

However, employees at large enterprises (firms with over 10,000 workers) are more confident about the future of their employers when compared to their peers from mid-market and SMB companies.

The findings showed that 41 % of enterprise professionals think their companies will do better in the next six months, while 63 % think their companies will be better off one year from now.

However, "the enterprise professionals are least confident about the future of their jobs, finances and careers, when compared to their SMB and mid-market peers".

The findings showed that 52 % of healthcare, 48% of corporate services, and 41 % of manufacturing professionals anticipate a decrease in investments in the next 6 months.

Over the past three months, many organizations have shifted to a remote working model to circumvent the pandemic and ensure business continuity.

Three in five marketing professionals feel confident about being effective when working remotely, joined by more than half of project management and engineering professionals, who are also confident about the effectiveness of remote working.

In contrast to this optimism, only 39 % of HR, 36% of finance, and 31 % of education professionals think they would be effective when working remotely, said the survey.