Govt is destroying institutions built by Sardar: Rahul Gandhi

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Mumbai, Feb 18: A group of citizens on Tuesday demanded a thorough inquiry into the death of special CBI judge Brijgopal Harkishan Loya in 2014.

The group has written a letter to Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, seeking a time-bound probe into the death of Loya.

Loya, who was hearing the high-profile Sohrabuddin Sheikh fake encounter case of Gujarat, died of a cardiac arrest in Nagpur on December 1, 2014, when he had gone to attend the wedding of a colleague's daughter.

Social activist Ashok Pai, addressing a press conference on behalf of the group, also demanded proper compensation for the judge's family, saying he was on an "official" tour.

Pai said on Tuesday he met NCP president Sharad Pawar, whose party is a key constituent of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in Maharashtra, and raised these demands with him.

Pawar assured to look into the demands, he said at the press conference at the Mumbai Marathi Patrakar Sangh.

"We have handed over a letter to Maharashtra Assembly speaker Nana Patole and dispatched a copy of the letter to Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray (seeking a probe into Loya's death)," Pai said.

As the matter relates to "mysterious" death of a sitting judge of the CBI, all facts about it must be made public after a detailed and time-bound probe, Pai said.

The Loya death case had reached the Supreme Court.

The Supreme Court had held that Loya had died of "natural causes" and had rejected PILs seeking an SIT probe into the death, questioning their motive.

The SC had held that petitions were moved by political rivals to settle scores which was a serious attempt to scandalise the judiciary and obstruct the course of justice through a "frontal attack" on its independence.

New Delhi, Feb 11: As the counting of votes for the Delhi Assembly polls began, Congress leader Digvijaya Singh on Tuesday raised doubts on EVMs, alleging that no machine having a chip is tamper-proof.

He called upon the Election Commission and the Supreme Court to take a fresh look at the use of EVMs in the country.

"No machine (which) has a chip is tamper-proof. Also please do for a moment think, why no developed country uses EVM," Singh said in a tweet.

"Would CEC and Hon Supreme Court please have a fresh look on EVM voting in India? We are the largest democracy in the world, we can't allow some unscrupulous people to hack results and steal the mandate of 1.3 billion people.

"If they match the votes in the counting unit. Declare the result. If they don't match then count the ballots of all polling booths in the assembly. It would convince everyone and save time also as this has been the consistent argument of CEC in favour of EVM," the Congress leader said.

Polling for the 70-member Delhi Assembly polls was held on Saturday.

The Election Commission on Sunday announced that the final voter turnout was 62.59 per cent, five per cent less than 2015.