UP govt planning to ban PFI: Report

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Jul 1: Gold prices in India hit an all-time high on Wednesday, tracking a global rally, as surging coronavirus cases in many countries raised the metal's safe-haven appeal.

Local gold futures hit an all-time high of Rs 48,871 ($646.66) per 10 grams in early trade, taking their gains to 25% in 2020 so far. The contract had gained nearly 25% in 2019.

However, this dampened the retail demand for gold in India, the world's second-largest consumer of the precious metal.

"Retail demand is negligible. Buyers are postponing purchases anticipating a correction in prices," said a Mumbai-based bank dealer with a bullion importing bank.

In thin trade, dealers were offering a discount of up to $22 an ounce over official domestic prices on Wednesday afternoon, up from the last week's $18. The domestic price includes a 12.5% import tax and 3% sales tax.

The country's gold imports in May plunged 99% from a year earlier as international air travel was banned and jewellery shops were closed amid a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus.

In overseas market, spot gold firmed near an eight-year peak on Wednesday, as a spike in coronavirus cases in the United and States and many other countries has cast a shadow on hopes for a quicker global economic recovery, driving inflows into safe-haven assets.

According to a latest Reuters tally, the coronavirus has infected more than 10.48 million people worldwide so far.

Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala activist Rehana Fathima has been asked to take compulsory retirement from BSNL after she was embroiled in Sabarimala row.

Stating that her attempt to enter the shrine of celibate god in 2018 had spoiled the reputation of the company among customers, the BSNL, in its order asked her to take compulsory retirement, further claiming that her acts were “subversive of discipline and amount to misconduct”.

She was suspended from service following her arrest in November 2018 over Facebook posts.

Fathima, who is a technician with the state-run communications company, said she will explore legal remedies against the order sent by her employer.

The Fathima hit headlines when she attempted to enter the Sabarimala shrine, which has traditionally been closed to women in the age group of 10-50 years.

She did after the Supreme Court order allowing entry of women in the age group of 10-50.