I-T raids premises of Cafe Coffee Day owner V G Siddhartha

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Mangaluru, Jan 8: In an operation, forest officials of Puttur has arrested two persons as many elephant tusks at Puduvettu in Belathangadi taluk of Dakshina Kannada.

Forest officials said on Wednesday the accused nabbed last night were identified as PK Dinesh from Madikeri and V Kumar from Hassan district.

Both were caught while trying to sell tusks the value of which was estimated to be lakhs.

Mangaluru, Apr 26: In the wake of the fears among local people regarding the cremation of coronavirus victims, an understanding has been reached with all stakeholders that the Mangaluru city corporation's crematorium here will be the official funeral site for such cases in future.

Mangaluru South MLA D Vedavyas Kamath, who had to face stinging criticism on social media for his alleged support to local people who stopped the cremation of a COVID- 19 victim at Pachanady near here on Thursday, took an active role in finding the solution.

The body of the victim, a woman, had to be taken from Pachanady to Kaikunje during the night, delaying the funeral by hours.

Kamath visited Boloor on Saturday and sought to convince the people that cremating the bodies of coronavirus victims would not endanger their lives in any way as the guidelines of WHO and union health ministry are being strictly followed.

The crematorium at Boloor is run by the MCC and has an electric furnace and firewood pyres.

Kamath said a tacit understanding that final rites of COVID-19 patients inDakshina Kannada will be performed at Boloor has been reached at a meeting with all stakeholders.

Cremating bodies in such a controlled environment is deemed safe as per guidelines, he said.

City Mayor Diwakar, local corporator Jagadish Shetty and MCC assistant commissioner Madan Mohan took part in the meeting.

The decision was conveyed to the DK district administration.

The district administration has also launched a campaign on dead body management protocol to convince the people to ignore misinformation being spread regarding the cremation of coronavirus victims.