Report about Chinese intrusion into India removed from Defence Ministry's website

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

New Delhi, Jun 22: India's COVID-19 cases per lakh people is one of the lowest in the world despite its high population density, and the recovery rate has now reached almost 56 per cent, the Union Health Ministry said on Monday.

For every one lakh population, there are 30.04 coronavirus cases in India, while the global average is over three times at 114.67, the ministry said, referring to the WHO Situation Report 153, dated June 21.

“This low figure is thus a testimony to the graded, pre-emptive and pro-active approach the Government of India along with the states and UTs took for prevention, containment and management of COVID-19," the ministry said in a statement.

Citing the WHO Situation Report, the ministry said the US has 671.24 cases per lakh population, while Germany, Spain, Brazil and the UK have 583.88, 526.22, 489.42 and 448.86 cases per lakh population, respectively.

It said Russia has 400.82 cases per lakh people, while Italy, Canada, Iran and Turkey have 393.52, 268.98, 242.82 and 223.53, respectively.

Coming back to India, as on Monday morning, the total number of coronavirus cases stood at 4,25,282 and the death toll at 13,699, according to figures issued by the ministry.

In its update issued at 8 AM Monday, the ministry said 9,440 COVID-19 patients recovered in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of recoveries to 2,37,195, a recovery rate of 55.77 per cent.

Presently, there are 1,74,387 active cases and all are under medical supervision, it said.

"The difference between the recovered patients and the active COVID-19 cases continues to widen. Today, the number of recovered patients has crossed the number of active patients by 62,808," the ministry said.

The COVID-19 testing infrastructure is continuously being ramped up and number of government labs has been increased to 723 and the private labs to 262, adding up to a total of 985, it said.

According to the Indian Council of Medical Research, a total of 69,50,493 samples have been tested up to 21 June, 1,43,267 of them just on Sunday.

On Monday, the country added 14,821 new COVID-19 cases in a single day, pushing the tally to 4,25,282, while the death toll rose to 13,699 with 445 new fatalities reported till 8 am.

The country breached the four lakh-mark on Sunday, eight days after crossing three lakh COVID-19 cases. It has recorded 2,34,747 infections since June 1.

Monday was the 11th day in a row when the country registered over 10,000 cases.

Jammu, Jan 23: The National Investigation Agency (NIA) has brought the disgraced Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) Davinder Singh to Jammu for investigations.

According to sources, Davinder Singh has been brought on a transit remand. A formal remand from the NIA court for interrogation will be taken on Thursday.

On Wednesday, fresh raids were carried out by the NIA at Singh's residences in Srinagar.

Singh was caught while transporting two militants, Naveed Babu and Rafi Ahmed, and a lawyer Irfan Ahmed in a vehicle to Jammu on January 11.

According to sources the two militants and the lawyer had plans to travel to Pakistan after reaching Jammu.

The case was transferred to the NIA after initial investigation by the Jammu and Kashmir Police.

Singh has been dismissed from the service and the Jammu and Kashmir administration on Monday forfeited the commendation medal and certificate awarded to him.