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Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Riyadh, Apr 26: The Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia has issued an order to partially lift the curfew in all regions of the Kingdom, to become from 9am to 5pm, starting Sunday through Wednesday May 13, while keeping a 24-hour curfew in the holy city of Makkah and in previously isolated neighbourhoods, state news agency (SPA) said early on Sunday.

The order also allowed the opening of some economic and commercial activities, which include wholesale and retail shops in addition to malls.

They can operate for two weeks, beginning on April 29 (Wednesday) until May 13 (Ramadan 6-20), however, certain shops within malls like beauty clinics, barber salons, gyms, cinemas, and restaurants will continue to be restricted from reopening.

Dubai, Jun 16: In a humanitarian gesture, a UAE-based Pakistani businessman has come forward to offer free interim accommodation options to covid lockdown hit expatriates. 

The men benefitted from Ali Rao's housing initiative include Indians, Pakistanis and Africans. 

Inspired by the ongoing efforts taken by the UAE leadership to take care of all UAE residents, Ali Rao, CEO of Rao Holdings LLC in Dubai is offering free shared accommodation to unemployed male bachelors and workers, especially expatriates who do not have a place to stay.

Ali Rao currently has a capacity of 100 accommodation options that he wishes to offer to those who cannot afford house rent. 

"We have already placed 25 such men in these housing options spread across Al Quoz, Jebel Ali and Muhaisnah areas of Dubai," Ali Rao told local media. He works in collaboration with major charities in Dubai, who refer the cases to Rao.

"One of our companies - the property management division - deals with industrial housing accommodation. We decided to put this space to good use when I came across media articles that highlighted the plight of these homeless men," he said. 

Rao has already sheltered 25 homeless workers in the Al Quoz area. "We have received applications for 35 more, however, many of these men are due to return to their home countries, so we are awaiting confirmation from the charities," he explained. He has provided them with free Wi-Fi, bedding, blankets, bedsheets, and pillows.

"In one unit, we provide them with food and the other unit, social workers and the associated charities deliver food," he added. The housing is exclusively for men and not for women and families. "Many are seeking jobs, so they needed Wi-Fi. I went to the camps today and set up a Wi-Fi connection. Someone wanted to eat eggs, so we got him some eggs and rice. These are simple things most of us take for granted, but to many people this is vital," he added.

Since most of the residents are looking to return to their home countries, Rao is also in the process of providing them with air tickets.

"If the need arises, we will add more units," he explained. Rao said, "The ongoing pandemic has hit everyone hard, especially those with no security to fall back on. The economic and income disparities have only increased in this time, with those dependent on daily wages being rendered homeless in massive numbers across the globe."

He added, "I felt heartbroken and if I would stand by and watch, I would feel very small as a human being, I won't be able to stand in front of the creator I thought to myself. These are some very difficult times for all of us."

A beneficiary of the programme said, "I am very happy with this initiative as living outside in the summer is very difficult. It's very hot. I want to thank God and this company for providing me with a roof over my head."